“Overall [a] quite positive mood and messaging across the AI GPU and server CPU businesses, where demand continues to outstrip supply and where Agentic AI is driving a new leg of growth for CPU servers,” analyst David O’Connor wrote in a note to clients. O’Connor has an Outperform rating and a $265 price target on AMD.

Delving deeper, O’Connor said the gigawatt deals that AMD has done (like those with OpenAI (OPENAI) and Meta (META)) are likely, but it’s unlikely they will include warrants. “[Company] reinforced the message that the bar is very high for warrants and pointed to the significant ecosystem work that OpenAI and Meta undertook on AMD hardware/software to justify a warrant option,” O’Connor added.

In addition, AMD said that hyperscalers are using agentic AI applications to drive high CPU utilization and thus looking to increase capacity “meaningfully.” As such, AMD said it feels good about growing its enterprise server CPU business and also mentioned that enterprise server CPU deals tend to come with incremental cloud business as well.

“We see Agentic AI as a strong driver of AMD’s CPU server business more from H2’26, given the server leadtimes of 4-5 months,” O’Connor explained.

Other takeaways included the belief that AMD has a competitive advantage in being able to customize its chips for AI workloads, depending upon customer requirements; AMD has a roadmap for co-packaged optics, but there is the belief that a couple of technologies will need to mature first before it really ramps up.

Lastly, given how notable the push in agentic AI has been, AMD has seen server CPU demand accelerate since its November analyst day, O’Connor said.

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Officials at the US Commerce Department have reportedly written draft regulations that would restrict AI chip shipments to anywhere in the world without American approval, giving Washington broad control over whether other countries can build facilities for training and running artificial-intelligence models, and under what conditions.

The proposed regulations would require companies to seek U.S. permission for virtually all exports of AI accelerators from the likes of Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a global expansion of curbs that currently cover around 40 countries, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

These chips are the most coveted components in the tech world. Companies like OpenAI (OPENAI) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) buy them by the thousands to install in data centers that run services like ChatGPT and Gemini.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) fell to session lows on the news Thursday. Nvidia dropped as much as 1.9%, while AMD declined 2.3%.

President Donald Trump’s team has said repeatedly that they want the world to use American AI, and the draft rules aren’t meant to function as an Nvidia (NVDA) export ban. Rather, the regulation would set up the U.S. government as gatekeeper for the AI industry: Companies — and in some cases, their governments — would have to seek the blessing of the U.S. Commerce Department to buy the precious accelerators, the report added.

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The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) rose around 1.3%. At the same time, the benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) climbed about 0.8%. The blue-chip Dow (DJI) grew nearly 0.6%.

The U.S. Senate is set to vote Wednesday on President Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action against Iran, marking a major congressional test as the conflict rapidly expands across the Middle East without a clearly defined U.S. exit strategy. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel carried out coordinated attacks on Iran that killed senior military and government leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering an Iranian response.

Chip stocks had tumbled on Tuesday after Asian markets saw red amid potential impact on energy supplies and surging oil prices due to the ongoing clashes. However, on Wednesday the surge in oil prices eased, and U.S. markets opened more positively after a better-than-expected labor report and a lower U.S. Composite PMI read.

AI chipmaker Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock rose about 2% on Wednesday. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped nearly 4%. Broadcom (AVGO) rose roughly 2%, while Qualcomm (QCOM) was largely flat but in the green.

Several other AI and networking-related stocks were also among the gainers. Arista Networks (ANET) surged about 7%, while Ciena (CIEN) and Celestica (CLS) each jumped roughly 3%. Cisco (CSCO) rose around 1%. However, Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE) seem to buck the trend, declining about 5% and 6%, respectively.

Shares of Intel (INTC) soared about 6% on Wednesday after CFO David Zinsner’s comments at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference. Zinsner said that the server CPU market is expected to grow meaningfully in 2026 and that demand for servers is strong across the board. However, Zinsner noted that the supply is a greater challenge into next year.

Micron Technology (MU) soared around 7%, while Arm (ARM) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) each climbed about 2%. Marvell Technology (MRVL), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) each rose nearly 1%. However, Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) fell about 2%, and GlobalFoundries (GFS) dipped roughly 1%.

Chip equipment makers: Lam Research (LRCX) soared about 4%, while ASML (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), and KLA (KLAC) each rose about 3%.

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Here are some of Tuesday’s biggest stock movers:

Biggest stock gainers

• Plug Power (PLUG) +10% – Shares climbed after a Q4 earnings beat highlighted ~13% Y/Y revenue growth and a dramatic gross margin improvement from -122.5% in Q4 2024 to +2.4% in Q4 2025. The company reported a record $187M year for electrolyzer revenue in 2025 and cited an ~$8B global sales funnel, underscoring commercial momentum. Incoming CEO Jose Luis Crespo, effective March 2, 2026, said 2025 revenue reached $710M with the Q4 margin turning positive as projected, and reiterated targets of positive EBITDA in Q4 2026, positive operating income by end-2027, and full profitability by end-2028 while continuing to scale the business.

Biggest stock losers

• MongoDB (MDB) -24% – Shares plunged after issuing mixed guidance despite otherwise solid results, as investors focused on softer near-term expectations. The company projected Q1 FY2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.19, slightly below the $1.20 consensus estimate, while FY2027 adjusted EPS of $5.75–$5.93 came in above the $5.69 estimate, suggesting longer-term profitability strength but near-term moderation that weighed on sentiment.
• Credo Technology (CRDO) -8% – Shares dipped despite reporting FQ3 results and forward guidance above Wall Street expectations, suggesting elevated investor expectations heading into the print. The company guided revenue to $425M–$435M, modestly above the $428.5M consensus in FQ4, with adjusted gross margin projected at 64%–66% and adjusted operating expenses of $76M–$80M.
• Archer Aviation (ACHR) -6% – Shares slid after reporting a wider-than-expected Q4 EPS loss, though its adjusted EBITDA loss of $137.9M was within guidance, driven partly by higher personnel and vendor expenses. The company ended FY2025 with roughly $2.0B in liquidity and said it remains disciplined on spending as it scales operations. Archer is expanding its Midnight aircraft fleet and flight test program, with its newest aircraft progressing through VTOL testing ahead of piloted transition flights, and remains on track for piloted VTOL operations in the UAE and its first passenger-carrying flights later this year.

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However, DeepSeek, which is expected to unveil the new model called V4, granted early access to domestic suppliers, including Huawei Technologies, the report added.

AI developers usually share pre-release versions of major models with leading chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to ensure their software works efficiently on widely used hardware. Previously, DeepSeek has worked closely with Nvidia’s technical staff, according to the report.

DeepSeek did not give access to Nvidia and AMD and gave Chinese chipmakers, including Huawei, a head start of several weeks to optimize the software for their processors, the report noted.

Nvidia, AMD, DeepSeek, and Huawei did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Seeking Alpha.

“The impact to Nvidia and AMD for general data accelerators is minimal – most enterprises are not running DeepSeek, which serves as a benchmarking model more than anything else,” said Ben Bajarin, CEO of research firm Creative Strategies. Bajarin noted that new AI coding tools are reducing the time it takes to make software run well on hardware “from months to weeks.”

The move is likely part of a larger strategy by the Chinese government “to try to keep U.S. hardware and models disadvantaged” in China, according to Bajarin.

Earlier this week it was reported that a Trump administration official told the news outlet that Seek’s latest AI model was trained on Nvidia’s advanced chip called Blackwell, using a cluster in mainland China. The move seems to violate U.S. export curbs.

DeepSeek could look to remove technical indicators revealing its use of U.S. AI chips and plans to publicly claim that it used Huawei’s chips to train its model, as per the U.S. official.

In December 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump approved the sale of some advanced AI chips, including the H200 GPUs, to China in exchange for a 25% fee. Trump issued a proclamation in January imposing the 25% tariff on certain high-end chips, including Nvidia’s H200 and Advanced Micro Devices’ (AMD) MI325X.

On Wednesday, Nvidia said that although the U.S. government approved limited shipments of H200 chips to China-based customers, the company has not yet generated any related revenue.

The H200 is the predecessor to Nvidia’s current flagship Blackwell chips and the upcoming Vera Rubin. The Trump Administration had previously allowed Nvidia to sell a less powerful GPU, the H20, to China.

Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips are aimed at AI inference — the process where a trained model analyzes new, unseen data to make predictions, decisions, or generate content.

Demand for the MI308 was significant, with AMD noting that it generated $390M in sales of the chip in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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Here are the four stocks to watch on the day:

Home Depot (HD) rose 2.63% in premarket trade after the company reported fourth-quarter results. Revenue decreased 3.8% year-over-year to $38.2 billion, though an additional week in Q4 FY2024 contributed approximately $2.5 billion in sales, impacting the comparison. Comparable sales increased 0.4% for the quarter ended February 1, beating the consensus expectation for a 0.4% decrease.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped 9.22% before the opening bell on news of an expanded strategic partnership with Meta Platforms (META). The companies announced a multi-year, multi-generation agreement to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct chips to power Meta’s next generation of AI infrastructure. The collaboration aligns roadmaps across silicon, systems, and software to deliver AI platforms purpose-built for Meta’s workloads.

Eli Lilly (LLY) fell 2.04% in premarket trade following a pricing announcement from rival Novo Nordisk (NVO). Novo Nordisk said it plans to cut the list prices of its GLP-1 medications Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus in the U.S. by 35% to 50% from current levels, effective January 1, 2027.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was flat in early action after a federal judge rejected a bid by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union to block the company’s workforce-cutting program. UPS plans to proceed with offering $150,000 buyout packages to some of its drivers. The judge deemed the union’s claims of harm unfounded, noting that involuntary layoffs could be the logical alternative to the voluntary program.

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The company has been meeting with potential investors, and the listing could take place as soon as April, the

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Arista Networks (ANET) shares rose almost 6% in premarket trading, while Ciena (CIEN) and Cisco (CSCO) also saw gains. Lumentum (LITE), which makes optical networking equipment, also rose more than 1% in premarket trading, as did Coherent (COHR). Also seeing gains were Celestica (CLS), Arm (ARM), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), which manufactures chips for AMD.

On Tuesday, AMD announced that Meta intends to spend “double-digit billions” per gigawatt on AMD chips and equipment, as part of a 6-gigawatt deal. The companies said the multi-year, multi-generation agreement expands an existing partnership and aligns roadmaps across silicon, systems, and software to deliver AI platforms purpose-built for Meta’s workloads.

Under the agreement, AMD issued Meta a performance-based warrant for up to 160M AMD common shares, structured to vest as specific milestones associated with Instinct GPU shipments are achieved.

“This multi-year, multi-generation collaboration across Instinct GPUs, EPYC CPUs, and rack-scale AI systems aligns our roadmaps to deliver high-performance, energy-efficient infrastructure optimized for Meta’s workloads, accelerating one of the industry’s largest AI deployments and placing AMD at the center of the global AI buildout,” said AMD’s Chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su.

AMD shares rose more than 10% in premarket trading following the announcement, while Meta shares slipped 0.7%. Nvidia (NVDA), which recently signed a multi-year deal of its own with Meta, fell fractionally.

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