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Alpha Metallurgical Resources targets 4.1M domestic tons at $136.30 average price as company ramps Kingston Wildcat mine

wpadmin — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 18:58:34 +0000

Earnings Call Insights: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Q4 2025

Management View

CEO Charles Eidson reported adjusted EBITDA of $28.5 million and 3.8 million tons shipped in Q4, closing a year marked by market weakness but improved cost performance. He stated, “Since our last earnings call, we issued 2026 guidance and announced 3.6 million tons in sales commitments to domestic customers. We have since added another 500,000 contracted tons, bringing Alpha’s domestic commitments to a total of 4.1 million tons for the year at an average price of $136.30.” Eidson highlighted the importance of these domestic commitments for cash flow stability in volatile market conditions.
Eidson noted recent coal market movements have been “largely concentrated within the Australian Premium Low Vol index” due to supply disruptions from Queensland flooding, which he described as “isolated and temporary.” He warned that “growing oversupply of high vol coal seems to be contributing to the widening spread between low-vol and the high-vol A and B coals. Given our usual quality mix, if the current pricing environment for high-vol persists, it would likely exert downward pressure on our realizations for the year.”
Eidson emphasized a continued focus in 2026 on “a strong balance sheet and safe, efficient operations as a recipe for success in these challenging times.”
CFO Todd Munsey stated, “Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $28.5 million, down from $41.7 million in the third quarter. We sold 3.8 million tons in Q4, down from 3.9 million tons in the third quarter. Met segment realizations increased quarter-over-quarter with an average realization of $115.31 in Q4, up from $114.94 in the third quarter.” Munsey also shared, “SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items, decreased to $10.9 million for the fourth quarter as compared to $13.2 million in the third quarter.”
President & COO Jason Whitehead reported operational progress at the Kingston Wildcat low-vol mine, stating, “We currently expect to produce roughly 500,000 tons from the mine this calendar year as we ramp up Wildcat’s full productivity capacity, which we believe is nearly 1 million tons per year.”

Outlook

Eidson noted the company has 4.1 million tons in domestic commitments for 2026 at an average price of $136.30. He cautioned that, “if the current pricing environment for high-vol persists, it would likely exert downward pressure on our realizations for the year.” Munsey shared that at the midpoint of guidance, “37% of our metallurgical tonnage in the Met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $134.02. Another 53%…is committed but not yet priced.”
Munsey also noted, “The thermal byproduct portion of the Met segment is 77% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $73.17.”

Financial Results

Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $28.5 million, and 3.8 million tons were sold. Munsey reported, “Met segment realizations increased quarter-over-quarter with an average realization of $115.31 in Q4.” The metallurgical sales weighted average realization was $118.10 per ton, up from $117.62 in Q3. Cost of coal sales for the Met segment increased to $101.43 per ton, up from $97.27 in Q3, mostly due to lower volumes and reduced coal inventory value.
SG&A costs, excluding certain items, decreased to $10.9 million. Unrestricted cash stood at $366 million with $49.6 million in short-term investments at year-end, and total liquidity was $524.3 million, down from $568.5 million at the end of September. CapEx rose to $29 million from $25.1 million in Q3, and cash provided by operating activities was $19 million compared to $50.6 million last quarter.

Q&A

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities: Asked for a breakdown of domestic versus seaborne tonnage and sensitivity to low-vol pricing. Daniel Horn, Chief Commercial Officer, explained that “probably half of our domestic volume was high vol, the other half…would be low and medium vol,” and that new Wildcat mine production would add low-vol tons to the seaborne market.
Giles questioned cost cadence. Eidson responded, “Q1…will lead to elevated costs. Second and third quarters are typically when we’re all systems go. Fourth quarters typically, same issue as the first.”
Giles inquired about demand in Europe, South America, and Asia. Horn stated, “The steel market globally is still pretty weak…There’s still some blast furnaces that could ramp up here…Asia remains kind of tough.”
Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company: Asked about uses for Alpha’s cash. Eidson said the priority is maintaining a strong balance sheet and share buybacks, but also looking at “different opportunities that may arise…we’ll look at literally anything that comes across the desk to see if there’s a way that we can add value to the enterprise without bringing extra risk.”
Martin asked about guidance assumptions and 45X tax credit benefit. Eidson confirmed guidance is based on year-ahead strip pricing, and Munsey estimated a “circa $2 per ton benefit” from the tax credit.
Martin asked about further domestic sales opportunities. Horn replied, “I think it’s fair to assume most — all of them will go export…that domestic market is put to bed.”
Giles queried M&A focus. Eidson replied, “We’re a met coal company…But the world changes…we really will [look at anything], but it does have to fit certain categories.”
Giles asked about U.S. supply changes. Eidson noted some furloughs and curtailments, estimating 1-2 million tons potentially taken offline, but did not see “enough to hit critical mass and make a material impact to the market.”
Giles raised coal pricing transparency. Horn discussed the dominance of buyer-preferred indices and noted, “The buyers largely dictate which indices you use.”
Matthew Key, Texas Capital Securities: Asked about tariff changes’ impact. Eidson responded, “It’s got a lot of buyers, a lot of people…sitting on their hands waiting to see where things fall out before they make big moves.”

Sentiment Analysis

Analysts asked clarifying questions about cost structure, guidance, and market outlook, with a neutral to slightly cautious tone, particularly regarding demand recovery and supply risks.
Management maintained a cautious but pragmatic tone in prepared remarks and Q&A, frequently highlighting uncertainty and market risk. Eidson stated, “We are still utilizing some of that cash for the share buyback…we’ll look at literally anything that comes across the desk to see if there’s a way that we can add value…without bringing extra risk.”
Compared to the previous quarter, both analysts and management expressed a slightly more defensive and risk-conscious outlook due to persistent market weakness and pricing volatility.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

The company moved from not providing 2026 guidance in Q3 to announcing 4.1 million tons in domestic commitments at an average price of $136.30 for 2026 in Q4.
Adjusted EBITDA and tons shipped declined from the previous quarter, while met segment realizations slightly increased. Cost of coal sales rose, reversing the prior trend of quarterly cost reductions.
Liquidity declined from $568.5 million to $524.3 million, and operating cash flow dropped.
Management’s tone shifted from emphasizing cost performance and operational achievements in Q3 to highlighting market risks, pricing pressures, and the need for resilience in Q4.
Analysts continued to focus on cost sustainability, market outlook, domestic contract strategy, and use of liquidity, but with increased attention to market risk and pricing volatility.

Risks and Concerns

Eidson and Horn repeatedly cited persistent market weakness, particularly in high-vol coal, and noted oversupply concerns that could pressure realizations.
Management highlighted the impact of temporary supply disruptions, such as Queensland flooding, but cautioned these were not expected to have lasting effects.
Horn described global steel demand as a key risk, with ongoing uncertainty from economic conditions, tariffs, and trade negotiations.
Potential for further production curtailments among smaller U.S. producers was discussed, but large-scale supply reductions were not anticipated to shift the global market.
The company is proactively managing its balance sheet and cost structure to mitigate these risks, with guidance and cash deployment strategies reflecting this approach.

Final Takeaway

Alpha Metallurgical Resources closed a challenging year with a disciplined focus on cost control and operational safety, securing 4.1 million domestic tons in sales commitments for 2026 at an average price of $136.30 to support cash flow amid market volatility. Management remains attentive to ongoing challenges in metallurgical coal markets, particularly in high-vol segments, and continues to prioritize a strong balance sheet, measured capital deployment, and the ramp up of the Kingston Wildcat mine as key elements of its strategy for navigating an uncertain market environment.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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Alpha Metallurgical GAAP EPS of -$1.34 in-line, revenue of $520.4M misses by $7.05M

wpadmin — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 12:32:52 +0000

Alpha Metallurgical press release (AMR): Q4 GAAP EPS of -$1.34 in-line.
Revenue of $520.4M (-15.7% Y/Y) misses by $7.05M.
Cash provided by operating activities in the fourth quarter decreased to $19.0 million as compared to $50.6 million in the third quarter. Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $29.0 million compared to $25.1 million for the third quarter.

2026 Operational Performance Update

As of February 17, 2026, at the midpoint of guidance, Alpha has committed and priced approximately 37% of its metallurgical coal for 2026 at an average price of $134.02 per ton and 77% of its thermal coal for the year at an average price of $73.17 per ton.

	2026 Guidance
in millions of tons	Low	High
Metallurgical	14.4	15.4
Thermal	0.7	1.1
Met Segment – Total Shipments	15.1	16.5

Committed/Priced^1,2,3	Committed	Volume(in millions of tons)	Average Price
Metallurgical – Domestic		4.1	$136.30
Metallurgical – Export		1.5	$127.53
Metallurgical Total	37 %	5.6	$134.02
Thermal	77 %	0.7	$73.17
Met Segment	40 %	6.3	$127.30

Committed/Unpriced^1,3	Committed
Metallurgical Total	53 %
Thermal	— %
Met Segment	50 %

Costs per ton⁴	Low	High
Met Segment	$95.00	$101.00

In millions (except taxes)	Low	High
SG&A⁵	$53	$59
Idle Operations Expense	$24	$32
Net Cash Interest Income	$2	$6
DD&A	$160	$174
Capital Expenditures	$148	$168
Capital Contributions to Equity Affiliates⁶	$35	$45
Cash Tax Rate	0 %	5 %

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Alpha Metallurgical Q4 2025 Earnings Preview

wpadmin — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:40:42 +0000

Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Friday, February 27th, before market open.
The consensus EPS Estimate is -$1.34 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $527.45M (-14.6% Y/Y).
Over the last 1 year, AMR has beaten

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Warning: AMR is at high risk of performing badly

wpadmin — Thu, 12 Feb 2026 10:42:49 +0000

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) has characteristics which have been historically associated with poor future stock performance. AMR has declining growth and negative EPS revisions when compared to other Materials stocks, to the point that it gets a Sell rating from our Quant rating system. Stocks rated Sell or worse by our Quant rating system have massively underperformed the S&P 500, as this article will describe.
The company has Revenue Growth (FWD) of -9.4% while the Materials sector median is 4.17%.

Due to these factors, as of Feb. 12, 2026, our quant model has rated Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. as Sell and the company has an overall rank of 222 out of 3598 in the Materials sector. Compared to the S&P 500, stocks rated Sell or worse were down 20% on average per year over the last 10 years.

If you are looking for alternatives to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) see our top rated Materials sector stocks by quant rating. Our top rated stocks have beaten the S&P 500 by 1300% over the last 10 years.
The Sell warnings are based on our Quant Ratings, a systematic quantitative model which generates Seeking Alpha’s Sell ratings. For information about Quant Ratings, backtesting and its limitations, please read more here.

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Coal miners in spotlight as Pentagon said to plan federal support for U.S. coal-fired power plants

wpadmin — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:46:17 +0000

President Donald Trump will unveil plans to use government funding and Pentagon contracts to sustain US coal-fired power plants as he seeks to drive domestic reliance on the fossil fuel, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing a White House official.
The marquee initiative, set to be announced Wednesday, will come through an executive order, as Trump directs Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to enter into agreements to purchase electricity from coal plants to power military operations, the report said.
Trump is also set to unveil a plan by the Department of Energy to provide $175 million for upgrades at six coal-fired plants in Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia, the report added.
The White House also said it would hold an event on Wednesday promoting coal-powered energy sources. Coal executives, miners, and energy industry leaders will visit the White House as Trump makes the announcements, the report added.
U.S.-listed coal companies include Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), Peabody Energy (BTU), Core Natural Resources (CNR), Warrior Met Coal (HCC), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), and Ramaco Resources (METC).

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PureCycle and MP Materials top materials stocks in short interest; Greif and ICL show minimal exposure

wpadmin — Fri, 16 Jan 2026 15:27:26 +0000

PureCycle Technologies (PCT) and MP Materials (MP) recorded the highest short interest among materials stocks as of Dec 31, 2025.

The materials sector comprises companies involved in chemicals, fertilizers, mining, and paper products. PureCycle Technologies (PCT) led the materials sector, with short interest at 23.80% of its shares outstanding, followed by MP Materials (MP) at 13.62%, reflecting elevated bearish positioning in both names.

PCT is rated Hold by the Seeking Alpha Quant model due to excessive valuation and poor profitability, coupled with weak momentum. MP Materials (MP), also rated Hold, has seen its shares advance 222.8% over the past year. Seeking Alpha Quant suggests MP’s valuation is significantly stretched with its Price/Sales ratio at 44, far exceeding the sector median of 2.

At the other end of the spectrum, Greif’s Class B shares (GEF.B) and ICL Group (ICL) were among the least shorted materials stocks, with short interest of just 0.32% and 0.15%, respectively, pointing to relatively stronger investor confidence.

Here are the top 5 most shorted materials stocks, all with a market capitalization above $2 billion (as a % of shares outstanding)

PureCycle Technologies, Inc. (PCT): 23.80% short interest
MP Materials Corp. (MP): 13.62%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR): 11.59%
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): 11.43%
Quaker Chemical Corporation (KWR): 11.27%

And here are the least shorted materials stocks, with a market capitalization above $2 billion:

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP): 0.71% short interest
Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO): 0.51%
Ternium S.A. (TX): 0.38%
Greif (GEF.B): 0.32%
ICL Group (ICL): 0.15%

More on materials stocks, etc.

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Alpha Metallurgical issues 2026 guidance expectations

wpadmin — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 21:42:50 +0000

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) on Friday issued guidance expectations for the 2026 calendar year.
Projecting total coal shipments of 15.1 to 16.5 million tons, including 14.4 to 15.4 million tons of metallurgical coal and 0.7 to 1.1 million tons of thermal coal.
The company forecast cost of coal sales at $95 to $101 per ton, with the Section 45X credit impact included. It expects SG&A expenses of $53 to $59 million, idle operations costs of $24 to $32 million, net cash interest income of $2 to $6 million, and depreciation, depletion and amortization of $160 to $174 million.
Capital expenditures are projected at $148 to $168 million, including work to complete the Kingston Wildcat mine.
Contributions to equity affiliates, including Dominion Terminal Associates, are estimated at $35 to $45 million. The company anticipates a cash tax rate of 0 to 5% for 2026.
Alpha reported that 27% of its 2026 metallurgical segment shipments were committed and priced as of December 8, with domestic metallurgical coal at an average price of $136.75 per ton and thermal coal at $76.25 per ton. A further 38% of metallurgical segment volumes were committed but unpriced.

AMR -0.29% after hours to $184.49.
Source: Press Release

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Alpha Metallurgical Resources signals continued cost discipline with $97.27 per ton in Q3 2025 as market challenges persist

wpadmin — Thu, 06 Nov 2025 17:57:10 +0000

Earnings Call Insights: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Q3 2025

Management View

CEO Charles Eidson highlighted, “This morning, we announced our financial results for the third quarter, which include adjusted EBITDA of $41.7 million and 3.9 million tons shipped. It was another good quarter for our team. Similar to Q2, the highlight of the period is the outstanding performance on cost of coal sales. For the second quarter, we missed a sub-$100 level by only $0.07. In Q3, we were able to shave almost another $3 off the prior quarter level, coming in at $97.27 per ton. We’re proud to have posted the best cost of coal sales performance for the company since 2021 and back-to-back quarters.”
Eidson stated the company is “in the process of planning for 2026, putting together budgets and anticipating what we believe could be another challenging year for the coal industry,” and is not ready yet to issue guidance for 2026, citing ongoing domestic negotiations.
CFO Todd Munsey reported, “Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $41.7 million, down from $46.1 million in the second quarter. We sold 3.9 million tons in Q3, same amount as in Q2. Met segment realizations decreased quarter-over-quarter and average realization of $114.94 in the third quarter, down from $119.43 in Q2. Export met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the third quarter realized $107.25 per ton, while export coal priced on Australian indices realized $106.39 per ton.”
Munsey added, “SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items increased to $13.2 million for the third quarter as compared to $11.9 million in the second quarter. CapEx For the quarter was $25.1 million, down $34.6 million in Q2.”
President & COO Jason Whitehead reported, “Q3 marks the second quarter in a row of record quarterly cost performance since 2021 at $97.27 per ton,” and noted continued progress at the Kingston Wildcat mine, with development production underway and expectations to reach a full annual run rate of roughly 1 million tons within 2026.
Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer Daniel Horn discussed market volatility, stating, “As steel demand remains subdued, metallurgical coal markets experienced slight fluctuations during the third quarter but have been largely range bound over the prior 6-month period.”

Outlook

The company is not yet issuing 2026 guidance, pending completion of domestic sales negotiations and greater visibility on next year’s market.
Munsey stated, “With additional visibility into remaining payments for the year, we are lowering our capital contributions to equity affiliates guidance to a range of $35 million to $41 million, down from the prior range of $44 million to $54 million.”
At the midpoint of guidance, 85% of metallurgical tonnage in the met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $122.57, with another 13% committed but not yet priced.

Financial Results

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $41.7 million, with 3.9 million tons sold.
Met segment realizations averaged $114.94 per ton, with export met tons at $107.25 per ton and export coal priced on Australian indices at $106.39 per ton.
Cost of coal sales for the met segment decreased to $97.27 per ton in Q3.
SG&A (excluding certain items) increased to $13.2 million.
CapEx for Q3 was $25.1 million.
As of September 30, unrestricted cash was $408.5 million, with $49.4 million in short-term investments and total liquidity of $568.5 million.
Cash provided by operating activities was $50.6 million in Q3.

Q&A

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities: Asked about sustainability of cost cuts and productivity if prices shift. Eidson responded, “there’s going to be some volatility quarter-to-quarter… But I would just pause for a moment to again congratulate the operations team… Jason and his crew have done an amazing job over the past several quarters, continually ratcheting those costs down while maintaining our safe production mantra.”
Giles asked about precedent for domestic contract volume swings. Horn replied, “A lot of it is in the our customers. They are — the steel industry in North America is not running at full capacity… I would guess it’s going to be similar to last year… I can’t really comment on a 1 million-ton swing, that seems like a lot. But until we’re through the negotiations, I really can’t say any more than that.”
Giles inquired about rare earth opportunities. Eidson said, “We actually have done work going back to 2014… We’re not under any illusion that any of this is going to drive any material economic impact… we’re pretty happy mining metallurgical coal and if something else pops up, that will be great, but that’s really not our strategic intent at this moment.”
Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company: Asked about the CSX derailment impact. Horn replied, “the good news is we learned this morning that the first trains have moved through that area. So we expect this to be a relatively short duration. We have coal on the ground. We were able to continue loading vessels, move some things around.”
Martin asked about domestic contract negotiations and spot activity. Horn stated, “Generally, Nate, the domestic customers all want to do fixed price 1-year contracts. So there’s not a lot of spot activity in that market.”
Martin discussed market conditions and supply. Horn responded, “new mines come online and old mines go offline. It’s not new. So we’ll navigate it. We’re watching it closely.”
Matthew Kline, Bank Texas Capital: Asked about index spreads and CapEx for 2026. Horn said, “the relativities between the 2 are driven by obviously supply and demand… What we’re more hoping for and expecting is some increase in demand in ’26.” Eidson added, “the only project that we have ongoing is… Kingston Wildcat mine… There’ll probably be another $40 million-ish to wrap that project up next year.”
Giles also asked about M&A and safety. Eidson noted, “Job 1 is always… protect a franchise, maintain this as much of a cash cushion as we can during these more difficult markets… M&A right now, pretty tough in this landscape.” On safety, “The team has really responded and recovered. September was the best safety month we’ve had this year and maybe, gosh, going back years.”

Sentiment Analysis

Analysts pressed on cost sustainability, contract negotiations, and market volatility, reflecting a neutral to slightly negative tone, particularly regarding market uncertainty and contract timing.
Management maintained a confident tone in prepared remarks, highlighting operational achievements and cost control, but shifted to a more cautious and measured stance in Q&A, especially regarding future guidance and market risks. Eidson emphasized, “we do think it is going to be — continue to be a protracted situation through next year, at least it feels like.”
Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone remains focused on cost discipline but with increased caution about the external environment and forward visibility.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

Costs improved further in Q3, with cost of coal sales per ton declining from $100.06 to $97.27 and met segment realizations decreasing from $119.43 to $114.94 per ton.
Liquidity increased slightly, while CapEx and adjusted EBITDA declined compared to Q2.
Guidance is now more cautious with no new 2026 outlook, whereas Q2 included updates and optimism around Section 45X benefits.
Analysts continued to focus on cost control and contract volumes, but also raised more questions this quarter about market uncertainty and contract timing.
Management’s confidence in cost control is steady, while acknowledging market headwinds more explicitly than last quarter.

Risks and Concerns

Management cited ongoing softness in metallurgical coal indexes, global economic uncertainty, and subdued steel demand as key risks.
Delayed domestic contract negotiations for 2026 and potential market share competition from new supply entrants were noted.
A recent train derailment posed a logistical risk, but was being addressed through alternative shipping and existing stockpiles.
Management is closely monitoring CapEx, cash balances, and remains cautious on M&A due to market conditions.

Final Takeaway

Alpha Metallurgical Resources delivered another quarter of record-low cost performance, achieving $97.27 per ton and demonstrating disciplined operations amid persistent market challenges. With the Kingston Wildcat mine progressing and a significant portion of 2025 tonnage already committed, the company remains cautious about 2026, citing ongoing contract negotiations and a volatile market outlook. Management’s focus is on maintaining cost controls, safeguarding liquidity, and advancing operational efficiency as the coal industry navigates a period of subdued steel demand and economic uncertainty.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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Alpha Metallurgical gives mixed Q3 numbers, lowers guidance

wpadmin — Thu, 06 Nov 2025 12:35:51 +0000

Alpha Metallurgical press release (AMR): Q3 GAAP EPS of -$0.42 beats by $0.03.
Revenue of $526.8M (-21.6% Y/Y) misses by $16.97M.
Records Adjusted EBITDA of $41.7 million for the quarter
Posts total liquidity of $568.5 million as of September 30
Achieves back-to-back record quarterly cost of coal sales performance since 2021
Reduces 2025 guidance range for capital contributions to equity affiliates

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Alpha Metallurgical Q3 2025 Earnings Preview

wpadmin — Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:18:53 +0000

Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Thursday, November 6th, before market open.
The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.45 an,d the consensus revenue estimate is $543.77M (-19.1% Y/Y).
Over the last 2 years, AMR has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 0 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward.

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