The company highlighted that customers will use one login and a single shared wallet across all verticals, while the app dynamically adjusts what a user sees based on what is legal in their state, such as sports wagering, casino games, lottery, or prediction markets. Management plans a phased rollout beginning around the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament.

DraftKings (DKNG) also intends to unify rewards and loyalty across products, using the super app as a cross-sell engine to push sportsbook users into casino, lottery, and prediction markets. Notably, DraftKings (DKNG) management believes the super app will raise customer lifetime value while lowering acquisition and promo costs by consolidating marketing and onboarding flows.

At its Investor Day event last week, the Boston-based company tied the super app and related AI-driven efficiencies to an ambitious long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target of at least 30%, pitching the unified platform as both a distribution breakthrough and a source of durable competitive advantage.

Analyst reactions to the super app unveiling have been favorable. Macquarie, BMO, Jefferies, BTIG, Canaccord, and others have highlighted the unified app as a catalyst for more efficient customer acquisition, stronger cross-product engagement, better personalization, and a larger total addressable market for DraftKings (DKNG) into 2030. Jefferies analyst David Katz said the new comprehensive super app should be a key driver of market share for DraftKings (DKNG) this year.

Shares of DraftKings (DKNG) are up 1.6% since its Investor Day event last week. The sports betting stock is down more than 25% on a year-to-date basis.

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The expected 2030 industry gross revenue opportunity reflects continued state legalization of sportsbooks and casinos, growth in existing jurisdictions, and the expansion of DraftKings Predictions. As a key driver of the opportunity, DraftKings Predictions is seen as enabling the company to offer sports event contracts in states without regulated online wagering, expanding its reach to nearly the entire U.S. population.

The company also plans to highlight with its presentation how it will increase deployment of AI across the platform to drive efficiency and operating leverage.

Finally, the company also announced plans to launch a new Super App, branded DraftKings Sports & Casino, which brings together the sportsbook, predictions, casino, and lottery businesses into one seamless, integrated experience through a single account and wallet, with access tailored to each jurisdiction. Notably, phase one of the integration is expected before the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament begins, with additional upgrades planned throughout the year. The Super App will leverage DraftKings’ (DKNG) experience and infrastructure operating the top-rated sportsbook to offer a unified sports experience, available nationwide. The Super App introduction could be considered a competitive threat to FanDuel (FLUT), BetMGM (MGM) (GMVHF), Kalshi (KALSHI), and Polymarket (POLYMARKET).

In terms of financial guidance, DraftKings (DKNG) expects to achieve at least a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin in the long term, with potential upside as the company increases its scale.

Shares of DraftKings (DKNG) were down 2.1% in premarket action amid broad market selling pressure.

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While Arkansas online sports betting itself has been live since 2022 via locally branded platforms such as Betly, BetSaracen, and Oaklawn Sports, national online sports betting companies have been hesitant to enter the state because of the 51% revenue-share requirement that is still in place. Arkansas mandates that any third-party mobile sportsbook deal must give at least 51% of net sports betting revenue to the in-state casino partner.

The addition of Arkansas expands the access of DraftKings Sportsbook to more than 2 million adult residents in the state, increasing coverage of the product to 53% of the U.S. population. Arkansas will be the 30th U.S. state, in addition to Washington, D.C., Ontario, Canada, and Puerto Rico, where DraftKings operates regulated sports betting.

Shares of DraftKings (DKNG) were down 2.6% in premarket trading.

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While Arkansas online sports betting itself has been live since 2022 via locally branded platforms such as Betly, BetSaracen, and Oaklawn Sports, national online sports betting companies have been hesitant to enter the state because of the 51% revenue-share requirement that is still in place. Arkansas mandates that any third-party mobile sportsbook deal must give at least 51% of net sports betting revenue to the in-state casino partner.

However, with no new states expected to legalize online sports betting this year, the incremental revenue from an Arkansas launch looks more appealing to FanDuel (FLUT) and DraftKings (DKNG). Looking at the overall landscape, Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender noted things are trending in the right direction, but the time-consuming process for legislative action means the firm has a bearish view on any developments with new state legalization.

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Management View

• Jason Robins, Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, highlighted that “we closed 2025 on a high note, setting new quarterly records for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Fourth quarter revenue grew 43% year-over-year to nearly $2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $343 million, 4x the prior year period.” He emphasized that DraftKings is “in a strong position” due to sustainable advantages in product, technology, trust, and marketing, further amplified by AI and machine learning, resulting in “predictable in improving cohort economics.” Robins also announced a major strategic focus on the new “Predictions” category, calling it “the most exciting new growth opportunity we have seen since PASPA was struck down in 2018,” and outlined plans to target “hundreds of millions in annual revenue for DraftKings Predictions in the years ahead.”
• Robins directly addressed concerns about overlap between Predictions and Sportsbook, stating “to date, we are not seeing a discernible impact from Predictions on our revenue.”
• The CEO also shared that the company’s newest Sportsbook state, Missouri, saw “adoption of our offering… higher than in any other state launch in our history through the first 2 months.”
• Alan Ellingson, Chief Financial Officer, stated, “Our fourth quarter revenue grew 43% year-over-year to nearly $2 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $343 million, 4x the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by more than 1,000 basis points year-over-year to 17%. We repurchased another 8 million shares during the quarter, and we expect to remain active with share repurchases as our adjusted EBITDA continues to grow.”

Outlook

• DraftKings expects fiscal year 2026 revenue to be “between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion” and adjusted EBITDA “between $700 million and $900 million.” Ellingson noted that these guidance ranges “reflect expected investments in DraftKings Predictions, line of sight jurisdiction launches and disciplined planning as business conditions evolve.”
• Robins explained the guidance approach: “We said, let’s make sure we put something out there that we feel really good about… missing numbers again is just not acceptable, and so it’s not something we’re willing to do.” He confirmed that “Predictions really is all upside. There’s nothing in terms of revenue in the guide.”

Financial Results

• Fourth quarter revenue reached nearly $2 billion, a 43% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $343 million, with a margin of 17%.
• Sportsbook revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $1.4 billion in Q4, and handle growth accelerated to 13% year-over-year. Sportsbook net revenue margin increased by 250 basis points to 8%, and parlay handle mix increased nearly 500 basis points.
• For fiscal year 2025, revenue was above $6 billion, up 27% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to over $600 million. DraftKings reported positive GAAP net income for the first time and repurchased 16 million shares during the fiscal year.
• Fantasy revenue increased as Pick6 scaled, iGaming revenue increased 20%, and Lottery revenue benefited from stronger jackpots and new offerings.

Q&A

• Daniel Politzer, JPMorgan: Asked about the aggressive pivot to prediction markets and investment levels. Robins responded that regulatory clarity from the CFTC and strong early numbers drive the excitement, saying “there’s been a real lean in from the CFTC… they’re going to issue real guidelines and regulations… that has since been cleared up.”
• Politzer: Asked about implied revenue deceleration in 2026 guidance. Robins said, “I thought we had a good year last year. So it’s very frustrating to me that we missed our guide. That was a self-inflicted wound… we really went back the other way.”
• David Katz, Jefferies: Sought details on what could drive revenue higher, especially around predictions. Robins noted, “Predictions really is all upside. There’s nothing in terms of revenue in the guide… the core business has a lot of upside too.”
• Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley: Asked about state-level dynamics and spend per head. Robins replied, “We’re seeing growth pretty much across states, state cohorts, I should say… as we drive that parlay mix up as we add more things, I think you’re going to continue to see increased monetization.”
• Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs: Queried on Predictions as a lever for user and activity growth. Robins explained the incremental nature: “It’s about incremental customers and other states.”
• Raymond Bowers, Wells Fargo: Asked about revenue guide components and player count trends. Robins indicated, “If you look at MUPs, you’re going to see a real impact from customer acquisition… if you take [Jackpocket] away, we had about 5% growth in MUPs.”
• Multiple analysts probed promotional spend, marketing strategies, and the impact of new products, with management emphasizing a conservative guidance approach and flexibility in marketing spend.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts were persistent in pressing for more detail on the Predictions strategy, guidance conservatism, and revenue drivers, reflecting a slightly skeptical tone, especially regarding the lack of Predictions revenue in guidance and the methodology behind the outlook.
• Management maintained a confident and occasionally defensive posture, especially regarding the guidance approach and commitment to conservative forecasting. Robins stated, “missing numbers again is just not acceptable,” and Ellingson affirmed, “we expect to remain active with share repurchases as our adjusted EBITDA continues to grow.”
• Compared to the previous quarter, current management sentiment shifted to a more conservative and disciplined tone, with repeated assurances against overpromising, in contrast to last quarter’s more bullish outlook.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Current quarter guidance is more conservative, with explicit statements that Predictions revenue is not included, while previous quarter remarks emphasized bullishness and upside potential from new products.
• The strategic focus has shifted from a general excitement about Predictions to a detailed plan for investment and rapid scaling, with robust discussion about regulatory developments and operational integration.
• Analysts’ focus shifted from concerns about volatility and hold in Sportsbook to more granular questions about Predictions economics, marketing synergy, and customer acquisition strategies.
• Management’s tone is more measured and risk-averse, reflecting lessons learned from missing previous guidance, while last quarter featured a stronger emphasis on growth and expansion.

Risks and Concerns

• Management cited regulatory risk as a key challenge, but highlighted that recent CFTC clarity is positive for Predictions expansion.
• Analysts raised concerns about the impact of Predictions on Sportsbook revenue, potential cannibalization, and the sustainability of promotional and marketing efficiencies.
• Management noted that the competitive and promotional environment remains rational and that guidance includes cushion for potential changes.
• Robins addressed customer acquisition slowdowns and flat MUPs, attributing these to normalization after outperformance in 2024.

Final Takeaway

DraftKings closed 2025 with record financial performance and is positioning itself for continued growth through a cautious yet ambitious strategy. The company’s new Predictions vertical is set for significant investment and operational integration, with management projecting considerable upside but excluding related revenue from its 2026 guidance. A disciplined approach to forecasting, active share repurchases, and a focus on leveraging existing marketing and technology assets define the coming year’s outlook, while the core Sportsbook business continues to expand its market share and profitability.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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Revenue increased 43.2% year-over-year in Q4 to $1.99B, driven primarily by continued healthy customer engagement, efficient acquisition of new customers, and higher sportsbook net revenue margin.

DraftKings’ (DKNG) monthly unique paying customers was unchanged year-over-year at 4.8M. Average revenue per MUP was up 43% year-over-year during the quarter to $143. The increase was primarily due to higher net revenue margins across both sportsbook and iGaming.

DraftKings (DKNG) generated adjusted EBITDA of $343.2M in Q4 vs. $89.5M a year ago.

At the end of the quarter, DraftKings (DKNG) was live with mobile sports betting in 26 states and Washington, D.C., which collectively represent approximately 52% of the U.S. population.

“We closed 2025 on a high note. Fourth quarter revenue increased 43% year-over-year, and we achieved records for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Our core business is strong as we enter 2026,” highlighted CEO Jason Robins.

“We also see a massive, incremental opportunity in DraftKings Predictions. We plan to deploy growth capital to build the best customer experience in Predictions and acquire millions of customers. We have the playbook to execute and win,” he added.

Looking ahead, DraftKings (DKNG) expects FY26 revenue in the range of $6.5B to $6.9B (midpoint $6.7B) vs. $7.3B consensus.

Shares of DraftKings (DKNG) slumped 9.2% in postmarket trading after shedding 4.3% during the regular session.

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According to Sensor Tower estimates, the Kalshi mobile app saw its highest ever daily downloads in the app’s history during the Super Bowl weekend, peaking at ~150K downloads in the U.S. on the day before Super Bowl Sunday. That surge in downloads came at the expense of legacy sports betting platforms such as DraftKings (DKNG), FanDuel (FLUT), and BetMGM (MGM) (GMVHF), which all saw steep year-over-year declines for app downloads during Super Bowl weekend. Fanatics (FANA) was noted to be the only outlier of the cohort of sports betting platforms, while prediction betting platform Polymarket (POLYMARKET) followed Kalshi’s path with a big spike in downloads.

“Kalshi’s ambitious marketing blitz in 2026 has resulted in the company ranking within the top 50 digital US advertisers by spend. In contrast, Kalshi ranked outside the top 40,000 advertisers during the same period in 2025,” highlighted Sensor Tower. Notably, Kalshi (KALSHI) outspent Polymarket (POLYMARKE) in the U.S. by ~19X during the 2025 NFL season and outspent DraftKings (DKNG) Sportsbook by 35%.

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