In this scenario, Cheniere Energy (LNG) which has “become a must-have energy stock” for investors who wish to hedge the current geopolitical turmoil, particularly since the start of 2026, and other U.S. LNG exporters, are increasingly in focus.

Of note, second-ranked U.S. producer Venture Global (VG) has the most flexibility to help in ​the short term because it is selling as much as 4B cf/day of commissioning volumes from its Plaquemines plant in Louisiana on the spot market, which allows the company more room to redirect cargoes, CEO Mike Sabel said this week on an earnings conference call.

1. Flex Ltd. (FLEX) – Quant rating 3.37 (Hold), YTD perf 0.81%
2. Energy Transfer (ET) – Quant rating 3.32 (Hold), YTD perf 10.98%
3. Kinder Morgan (KMI) – Quant rating 3.24 (Hold), YTD perf 19.90%
4. The Williams Companies (WMB) – Quant rating 3.21 (Hold), YTD perf 22.84%
5. Excelerate Energy (EE) – Quant rating 3.18 (Hold), YTD perf 28.24%
6. Venture Global (VG) – Quant rating 3.17 (Hold), YTD perf 67.16%
7. Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) – Quant rating 3.14 (Hold), YTD perf 17.71%
8. Sempra (SRE) – Quant rating 3.09 (Hold), YTD perf 5.30%
9. Flex LNG (FLNG) – Quant rating 3.08 (Hold), YTD perf 19.96%
10. Cheniere Energy (LNG) – Quant rating 3.07 (Hold), YTD perf 26.43%
11. NextDecade (NEXT) – Quant rating 2.91 (Hold), YTD perf 5.50%
12. Golar LNG (GLNG) – Quant rating 2.45 (Sell), YTD perf 21.06%
13. New Fortress Energy (NFE) – Quant rating 1.11 (Strong Sell), YTD perf -7.02%

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Seeking Alpha analysts Manika Premsingh of Long Term Tips and Kody’s Dividends give us their picks.

Manika Premsingh: Big projected AI data center energy demand has catalyzed and can continue to catalyze nuclear energy-producing companies in particular.

Not only are technological advancements underway in the segment, but hyperscalers have already signed agreements with multiple power producers. The segment has also received exceptional support from the U.S. government. Besides a target of tripling nuclear power generation, uranium, a key raw material for the energy source, was included in the critical minerals list issued last year.

Part-nuclear energy producers like Constellation Energy Group (CEG), Duke Energy (DUK), and Vistra (VST) can all make for good buys now, especially for long-term investors.

Kody’s Dividends: In my view, the most sustainable way to play the surging data center electricity demand includes two distinct but complementary sectors: regulated utilities and midstream infrastructure.

The macro tailwinds are undeniable. Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that U.S. data center electricity consumption will soar by 165%, rising from around 4% of total electricity consumption in 2023 to 10% in 2030. This massive jump from around 200 TWh to 500 TWh is creating a reliability gap that only a few companies are equipped to bridge.

In the midstream space, Energy Transfer (ET) is arguably the most aggressive play on this trend. As of early 2026, ET has transitioned from prospecting to commercial execution, signing long-term contracts for over 6B cubic feet per day of pipeline capacity in the past year and receiving connection requests for over 40 data center projects. The 7.2% yield is highly secure with a 1.8x coverage ratio in 2025. At a sub-$19 unit price, ET is also trading moderately below my fair value per unit estimate of nearly $23.

In the regulated utility space, I believe the most compelling value is Xcel Energy (XEL). Its $81 share price trades at a modest discount to my $84 fair value estimate (20x forward 12-month ongoing diluted EPS).

The explosion of demand from AI and data center infrastructure in Xcel’s service territories is why the regulated utility is planning a $60B base capital investment plan for 2026 through 2030 (up from $45B for 2025 through 2029), along with a $10B and counting pipeline. This is expected to drive 9% annual ongoing diluted EPS growth for the company over the next several years. The nearly 3% dividend yield is also secure, which overall paves the way to 10%+ annual total returns.

• Top Gas & Oil Storage & Transportation Stocks
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• Top Independent Power Producer & Independent Trader Stocks

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The final judgment was in line with a decision issued in October, when the judge cut by nearly half a $667M damages award that a jury had awarded Energy Transfer (ET).

Greenpeace said it will seek a new trial and, if necessary, appeal the decision with the North Dakota Supreme Court, calling the company’s lawsuit “a blatant attempt to silence free speech.”

Construction of the pipeline, which was completed in 2017 and now transports ~40% of the oil produced in North Dakota’s Bakken region, was met with angry protests by environmental and tribal groups who said it would poison the local water supply and exacerbate climate change.

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Management View

• Co-CEO Thomas Long highlighted a partnership record with adjusted EBITDA of nearly $16 billion for 2025 and DCF attributable to partners at $8.2 billion. He noted, “Operationally, we moved record volumes across each of our interstate midstream NGL and crude segments for the year ended 2025. We also exported a record amount of total NGLs out of our Nederland and Marcus Hook terminals.”
• Long stated, “During the quarter, we recorded records in each of our NGL fractionation throughput, LPG exports, Nederland terminal volumes and crude transportation throughput.”
• Energy Transfer spent approximately $4.5 billion on organic growth capital for 2025, focusing mainly on NGL, refined products, midstream, and intrastate segments.
• The company projects 2026 organic growth capital guidance between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, with two-thirds invested to enhance natural gas assets and one-quarter for NGL and refined products expansions contracted under long-term commitments.
• Long announced the upsize of the Desert Southwest Pipeline Project to a 48-inch diameter, increasing capacity to up to 2.3 Bcf per day, with expected in-service by Q4 2029 at a projected cost of $5.6 billion.
• The Hugh Brinson pipeline is 75% complete, expected in service Q4 2026 for Phase 1, with Phase 2 following in Q1 2027. The system is fully contracted west to east, with growing backhaul commitments.
• Group CFO Dylan Bramhall reported, “We’re about 60% of our own volumes, 40% third-party, and that affiliate volume number continues to grow. So we’ll keep trending — that 60% will trend up higher as we move through the year.”

Outlook

• The company revised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $17.45 billion to $17.85 billion, up from the previous $17.3 billion to $17.7 billion, stating the change is “solely attributable to the USA Compression’s acquisition of J-W Power Company, which closed on January 12, 2026.”
• Management reiterated a long-term annual distribution growth target of 3% to 5% and leverage target of 4x to 4.5x EBITDA during this period of investment.
• Long described a “significant backlog of opportunities” supporting continued growth, with large-scale projects including the upsized Desert Southwest Pipeline and ongoing expansions at Nederland and Marcus Hook terminals.

Financial Results

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was approximately $4.2 billion, up from $3.9 billion in Q4 2024. DCF attributable to partners was approximately $2 billion, consistent with the prior-year quarter.
• The NGL and refined products segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion, including a onetime $56 million increase from a regulatory order, offset by a $58 million timing-related decrease and a $14 million impact from loading delays at Nederland.
• Midstream adjusted EBITDA was $720 million, crude oil segment $722 million, interstate natural gas $523 million, and intrastate natural gas $355 million—all showing increases or stability except for crude oil, which reflected lower Bakken pipeline revenues.
• One-time items included regulatory order impacts and a $60 million transaction expense related to the Parkland acquisition.

Q&A

• Theresa Chen, Barclays: Asked about key drivers and creative solutions in natural gas commercialization. Co-CEO Marshall McCrea responded with enthusiasm for the Desert Southwest and Hugh Brinson projects, emphasizing the company’s growing NGL and power plant footprint.
• Gabriel Moreen, Mizuho: Inquired about potential asset conversions and winter weather impacts. McCrea confirmed ongoing evaluation for asset repurposing and reported effective operational performance during recent storms, though profits did not match historical events like Uri.
• Jean Ann Salisbury, BofA: Sought clarity on early volumes for Hugh Brinson and DAPL’s future use. McCrea indicated confidence in bringing on early volumes, with details to follow in future calls, and Arthur noted flexibility for DAPL to serve Canadian heavy crude as Bakken production shifts.
• Keith Stanley, Wolfe: Asked about multiyear EBITDA growth expectations. Bramhall referenced the 3%-5% long-term distribution growth rate as a floor for growth outlook.
• Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies: Discussed pro forma economics of the upsized Desert Southwest project and DAPL tariffs. McCrea described it as one of the better rate-of-return projects the company has ever built.
• Additional analyst questions focused on storage, data center demand, project capital, and regulatory order impacts, with management providing detailed breakdowns of segment performance and strategy.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analyst tone was positive to slightly positive, with multiple questions on commercialization, project timelines, and upside from data center and power plant demand.
• Management maintained a confident, occasionally exuberant tone, especially during prepared remarks on growth projects and in response to questions about strategic flexibility. McCrea repeatedly expressed excitement, stating, “We are incredibly excited about our footprint and couldn’t be more elated of where we’re going to be over the next 10 or 15 years.”
• Compared to the previous quarter, management’s confidence was more pronounced, reflecting the completion of project milestones and upward guidance revision. Analysts continued to probe for details on growth drivers and execution risk but were receptive to management’s responses.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 showed a sequential increase from $3.84 billion in Q3 to $4.2 billion in Q4, with full-year adjusted EBITDA reaching a record $16 billion versus $11.8 billion for the first nine months.
• Guidance language shifted from caution regarding 2025 results in Q3 to a raised outlook for 2026, citing USA Compression’s acquisition and strong project execution.
• The company advanced the Desert Southwest pipeline from 42 to 48 inches and moved the Hugh Brinson project toward earlier partial service, indicating accelerated project momentum.
• Analysts in both quarters focused on growth capital allocation, data center and power plant demand, and asset optimization; management’s tone evolved from disciplined optimism to heightened confidence in the current quarter.

Risks and Concerns

• Management acknowledged competitive pressure in NGL transportation and fractionation, with McCrea noting the “NGL transportation and fracking segment has become the most competitive.”
• Weather volatility and Permian Basin freeze-offs were highlighted, but management emphasized operational preparedness.
• Regulatory changes affecting rates were discussed, with CFO Bramhall detailing the onetime impacts and expectations for recouping lost revenue in future quarters.
• Analysts probed on project execution risks, especially for major expansions and asset conversion decisions, but management consistently stressed capital discipline and flexibility.

Final Takeaway

Management emphasized that Energy Transfer is positioned for significant growth in 2026 and beyond, driven by major pipeline expansions, robust demand from data centers and power plants, and a strong backlog of long-term contracted projects. The company raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance and reaffirmed its commitment to disciplined capital allocation and distribution growth, highlighting operational excellence and flexibility to capture new opportunities across its asset base.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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The company’s previous quarter results fell below expectations, and adjusted EBITDA and cash flow declined slightly year-over-year.

Despite the double miss, Energy Transfer (ET) posted record volumes in key areas, including natural gas liquids transportation, terminal volumes, and export volumes. Natural gas transportation volumes also increased in both interstate and intrastate segments.

Analyses by SA contributors ahead of Q4 results present a bullish picture for the company. Steven Fiorillo expects “a lot to look forward to” with the results, with Energy Transfer well-positioned by diversified infrastructure assets and long-term data center contracts.

Another analysis by Samuel Smith suggests this may be the “most important one in years” for the company and determines “whether this high-yielder finally breaks out.”

KM Capital downgraded the stock to Hold, citing a “stretched valuation and operating leverage uncertainty, despite strong recent total returns.”

Nevertheless, it still expects robust Q4 revenue from organic and M&A drivers, although EPS growth may lag.

The stock has dropped around 6.8% in the past 12 months and holds a Buy rating by SA and Wall Street analysts and a Hold by Seeking Alpha’s Quant system.

The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.30 and the consensus revenue estimate is $24.04B (+23.0% Y/Y).

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 2 downward.

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