This week, OpenAI (OPENAI) said it was moving Instant Checkout out of the ChatGPT app and routing purchases back to the sellers’ app, a development that was immediately celebrated by online retailers, OTAs, and online vehicle marketplaces, and even shoppers who saw little difference between buying directly from the retailer or through Instant Checkout.

“We believe ETSY is the most vulnerable [to Instant Checkout] because it doesn’t touch the product like Amazon or MercadoLibre do, and therefore, can’t offer perks like accelerated delivery or easy returns,” Fong says. With Instant Checkout de-emphasized, “ChatGPT has become much more like any other distribution channel for ETSY, little different from paid search or social.”

“With consumers needing to use the Etsy app, disintermediation risk falls dramatically and loyalty should remain intact,” he adds.

Fong is also bullish on MercadoLibre (MELI) as the OpenAI (OPENAI) news reinforces his confidence in the company’s ability to maintain customer loyalty.

“Even though we viewed the risk of agentic disintermediation for MELI as low due to its fulfillment network and fintech integration, we believe AI has been a significant investor concern over MELI.”

On the other end of the spectrum is RealReal (REAL) given its proprietary supply, which ChatGPT couldn’t bypass.

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“We’re evolving how we approach commerce in ChatGPT to better meet merchants and users where they are,” said an OpenAI spokesperson in response to the decision.

The pivot was likely fueled by the technical challenges shopping integration presented for OpenAI. Merchant details such as pricing and availability needed to be constantly updated within the chatbot, and safeguards against fraudulent and erroneous transactions were also more complicated within the AI framework.

This is good news for sites like Booking Holdings (BKNG), Shopify (SHOP) and Etsy (ETSY), all of which underwent a significant correction in the SaaS-pocalypse in early February amid concerns that the sophistication of platforms like ChatGPT would cause a substantial change to how users/travelers shopped on the internet.

“We believe the shift from checkout on ChatGPT into apps on ChatGPT may be just the beginning of the end of this bear case [for names like Booking],” Mizuho analyst Lloyd Walmsley said in his note to clients.

“We have already heard from internet investors drawing up their shopping lists on the news. We believe OTAs, DoorDash, and Google are at the top of the list. We believe a relief rally here will have legs,” Walmsley adds.

Accordingly, shares of Booking Holdings (BKNG), Expedia Group (EXPE), Tripadvisor (TRIP), and Travelzoo (TZOO) are all trading with gains of as much as 9%.

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The retail sector group said the Supreme Court’s announcement regarding tariffs

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Here are some of Friday’s biggest stock movers:

Biggest stock gainers

• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) +14% – Shares jumped after Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA topped expectations, and the company highlighted progress in its turnaround strategy, including a 46% Q/Q jump in homes purchased, lower capital intensity, and faster inventory turnover. Opendoor is targeting positive adjusted net income on a forward 12-month basis by end-2026. However, it expects Q1 revenue to fall about 10% sequentially to roughly $662M (well below consensus) and forecasts an adjusted EBITDA loss in the low-to-mid $30M range, though contribution margin is projected to be the strongest since Q2 2024.

Biggest stock losers

• GRAIL (GRAL) -47% – Shares plunged after announcing topline results from the randomized NHS-Galleri trial, where the primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction in Stage III-IV cancers was not met. While the study showed a favorable trend in a pre-specified group of 12 high-mortality cancers and reported meaningful reductions in Stage IV diagnoses with sequential screening, investors focused on the missed primary goal. The company said the Galleri test still demonstrated potential to shift cancer detection to earlier stages and reduce emergency presentations, and it plans further analysis with detailed data expected at the ASCO 2026 meeting.
• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) -9% – Shares fell as weak earnings guidance overshadowed a Q4 beat. For Q1, the company expects adjusted EPS of $1.50–$1.67, below the $1.75 estimate, while revenue of $1.06B–$1.085B is roughly in line with forecasts. For FY2026, Akamai guided for adjusted EPS of $6.20–$7.20, missing the $7.29 consensus, though projected revenue of $4.4B–$4.55B came in slightly above expectations.
• Copart (CPRT) -6% – Shares dipped after FQ2 results disappointed, showing revenue down 3.6% Y/Y to $1.12B despite pricing gains and record ASPs. Global service volumes declined 8% (3.6% ex-CAT), and U.S. insurance units fell 10.7%, with margin pressure and higher expenses fueling the negative reaction despite core operational growth.

More on related stocks:

• Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Grail slides as trial misses primary endpoint, fails to show significant stage III-IV cancer reduction
• Akamai projects 45%-50% CIS revenue growth in 2026 as AI Inference Cloud momentum accelerates

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Management View

• Kruti Goyal, CEO, opened her first earnings call with the announcement of a definitive agreement to sell Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion in cash, stating this will allow Etsy to “focus exclusively on the compelling opportunity we see in front of us to grow the Etsy marketplace in ways that matter most to our buyers and sellers.” Goyal noted, “Our goal last year was to return our core marketplace to growth, and we achieved that in the fourth quarter. While we still have work ahead, the trajectory is clearly improving.”
• Goyal described a diagnostic review revealing that while Etsy’s value proposition remains differentiated, “perceptions of differentiation have softened over time.” She outlined four strategic priorities: earlier presence in the shopping journey, improved machine learning-driven matching, deeper loyalty with top customers, and emphasizing human connection.
• Operational changes included reorganizing around customer outcomes, consolidating product and engineering teams, unifying trust, safety, and customer support, and shifting marketing from channel-first to customer-first.
• Goyal highlighted progress: “Q4 U.S. buyer GMS grew for the first time in 4 years,” app GMS growth accelerated to 6.6% year-over-year, homepage clicks per visit increased 14%, and customer support satisfaction for sellers rose 15.5% since last year.
• On AI and agentic commerce, Goyal said “agentic traffic to Etsy in Q4 was about 15x what it was last year,” with partnerships expanding to Microsoft Copilot, Google, and Stripe. Early indicators suggest agentic discovery channels are additive to the ecosystem, with higher value orders through ChatGPT.
• Charles Baker, CFO, stated, “Fourth quarter consolidated GMS was $3.6 billion, up 2.4% year-over-year, excluding Reverb. This was above the midpoint of our guidance range and up 1.3% year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis. Consolidated revenue was $882 million, up 6.6%, excluding Reverb, a new quarterly record. Adjusted EBITDA was $222 million, representing a consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.2%.”

Outlook

• Baker reported, “We currently anticipate that first quarter 2026 GMS will be in the range of $2.38 billion to $2.43 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 2% to 4% for the quarter.”
• For full year 2026, Baker stated, “We expect to further improve our performance this year, achieving slight growth for 2026, with positive year-over-year GMS comparisons in each quarter of the year.”
• The company expects the Q1 2026 take rate to be approximately 25.5%, and adjusted EBITDA margin between 28% and 30%. Full year take rate and adjusted EBITDA margin are expected to be roughly consistent with the first quarter.

Financial Results

• Etsy delivered record consolidated revenue of $882 million in Q4 2025, with services revenue growing 9.9% year-over-year and marketplace revenue up 0.8%.
• Marketplace GMS in Q4 was up 0.1% year-over-year, the first positive comparison since Q3 2023. U.S. buyer GMS grew 0.3% year-over-year, marking the first quarter of positive growth in 4 years.
• Mobile app downloads grew 4% year-over-year, with app GMS share reaching 46%. The trailing 12-month active buyer count in the U.S. increased slightly from Q3 to Q4, and GMS per active buyer was $121.
• Etsy ended Q4 with $1.8 billion in cash and investments, generated $735 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, and repurchased $133 million in stock during the quarter, totaling $777 million for the year.
• Depop Q4 GMS was $300 million, up nearly 38% year-over-year, with U.S. GMS growing 60%.

Q&A

• Trevor Young, Barclays: Asked about improvement in gross buyer adds and sustainability. Baker responded that sequential improvement is due to investments in product, app usage, personalized marketing, and social media, with social channels being effective for reactivating buyers.
• Bryan Smilek, JPMorgan: Inquired about sustaining GMS growth and marketplace dynamics. Goyal explained that four strategic priorities—discovery, matching, loyalty, differentiation—are “designed to work as a system to really improve the entire ecosystem to do exactly that, to drive durable growth.” Baker detailed stabilization in buyer numbers, growth in average order value, and efforts to improve frequency.
• Michael Morton, MoffettNathanson: Asked about AI platform traffic, consumer behavior, and risks to on-site ads. Goyal noted agentic is in “very, very early days,” but signals are encouraging, with high-intent, higher average order value customers. Baker addressed ongoing optimization opportunities for Etsy Ads and potential for greater integration of advertising into agentic platforms.
• Rakesh Patel, Raymond James: Focused on acquiring younger buyers. Baker highlighted the mobile app and social channels, especially TikTok, as key levers, with doubled TikTok spending this quarter and stable returns.
• Kenneth Gawrelski, Wells Fargo: Asked about search and discovery competition with agentic platforms and capital allocation. Goyal stressed leveraging AI for richer intent signals and improving on-site experience. Baker said excess cash will go towards share repurchases or high-return investments, with current focus on internal investment.
• Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer: Questioned marketing allocation post-Depop sale. Baker clarified that Etsy’s investment focus is on product development rather than marketing, noting over $400 million spent on product development last year.
• Deepak Mathivanan, Cantor: Asked about agentic platform learnings and technical approach. Goyal said early signals support agentic as a strong discovery channel, while Baker noted repeat agentic shoppers indicate strong satisfaction.
• John Colantuoni, Jefferies: Queried app versus website performance. Goyal emphasized strong app engagement and significant headroom for growth as only 46% of GMS is from the app.
• Shweta Khajuria, Wolfe Research: Asked about agentic commerce risks to take rates and frequency growth potential. Goyal said it’s “impossible to predict” exact risks but highlighted Etsy’s adaptability. She saw no structural reason frequency cannot improve with ongoing investments.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts pressed for sustainability of buyer gains, the impact of agentic commerce, competitive risks, and allocation of proceeds from the Depop sale, with a neutral to slightly skeptical tone, particularly on AI and advertising risks.
• Management maintained a confident and transparent tone, emphasizing “clear plan,” “disciplined execution,” and “encouraging signs,” while acknowledging “more work to do” and the early stage of several initiatives. Goyal stated, “We feel confident that those investments will compound into the kind of sustainable growth we all believe Etsy is capable of.”
• Compared to the previous quarter, analysts’ tone was more focused on structural risks and strategic clarity, while management’s tone shifted from transitional to assertively forward-looking and focused on execution.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• The Q4 call featured a major strategic shift with the announced sale of Depop, compared to Q3’s focus on leadership transition.
• Guidance language evolved from “further quarter-over-quarter improvement” in Q3 to expectations for “slight growth for 2026” and positive GMS each quarter.
• Management emphasized AI, agentic commerce, and operational reorganization more strongly in Q4, while analysts shifted from general momentum and product improvement questions to forward-looking concerns about AI risks and capital allocation.
• Key metrics improved: Q4 saw the first positive marketplace GMS comparison since Q3 2023 and a return to U.S. buyer GMS growth, while GMS per active buyer stabilized above the Q1 trough.
• The tone of management became more confident, with greater focus on execution and leveraging AI, while analysts pressed harder on strategic risks and the impact of AI platforms.

Risks and Concerns

• Management recognized that the “full impact” of new initiatives will “take time to translate into stronger sustainable growth,” and acknowledged ongoing work to improve frequency and retention.
• Analysts questioned risks to on-site ad revenue from agentic platforms, competition for discovery, and the potential impact of AI agents on take rates.
• Goyal stated, “it’s impossible to predict right now for every one of those situations, what might happen,” but emphasized Etsy’s adaptability.
• The company is monitoring macroeconomic conditions, especially those impacting consumer discretionary spending, and is prepared to adjust investments accordingly.

Final Takeaway

Etsy’s Q4 2025 earnings call marked a pivotal shift as the company announced the sale of Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion, setting the stage for a focused strategy on its core marketplace. Management reported record revenue, improving GMS trends, and highlighted progress in AI-driven discovery, buyer engagement, and operational efficiency. Looking ahead, Etsy expects slight GMS growth in 2026 with positive comparisons each quarter, supported by ongoing investments in personalization, loyalty, and app engagement. While management acknowledged uncertainties and the early stage of several initiatives, the company expressed confidence in its strategic direction and its ability to adapt and deliver sustainable growth.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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The stock is also gaining additional ground after announcing late Wednesday

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Etsy (ETSY) shares snapped six straight sessions of losses, as the stock was up 3.5% at $45.89 on Wednesday.

The global online marketplace fell 19.5% in the preceding six sessions. The stock is down 26% over the past one month and has dropped over 17% so far this year.

Etsy is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, February 19th, before market open.

“Etsy continues to face declining engagement and flat Gross Merchandise Sales, despite incremental improvements and a new CEO at the helm,” pointed out a recent Seeking Alpha analysis.

Looking at Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating, ETSY has a Hold rating with a score of 2.9 out of 5. The company received an A- in the prospect of profitability, while it got a D in growth factor.

Turning to the Wall Street community, eight analysts gave ETSY a Buy and above rating. 22 analysts have given the stock a Hold recommendation, while two recommended Sell.

Seeking Alpha analysts are cautious and see the stock as a Hold.

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