						<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>FSR Archives - Up2info.com</title>
	<atom:link href="https://up2info.com/tag/fsr/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://up2info.com/tag/fsr/</link>
	<description>News / Analytics / Reviews</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 24 Mar 2024 05:01:39 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>
	hourly	</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>
	1	</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4</generator>

<image>
	<url>https://up2info.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/cropped-up2info-fav-32x32.png</url>
	<title>FSR Archives - Up2info.com</title>
	<link>https://up2info.com/tag/fsr/</link>
	<width>32</width>
	<height>32</height>
</image> 
	<item>
		<title>Fisker: Precarious Situation</title>
		<link>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-precarious-situation/</link>
					<comments>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-precarious-situation/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wpadmin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Mar 2024 05:01:39 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FSR]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-precarious-situation/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Summary: Fisker Inc. is facing potential bankruptcy and is currently uninvestable due to high risks. The company has paused production for six weeks to manage inventory levels and secure additional financing. Fisker&#8217;s stock represents excessive risks, and its survival as an EV company is uncertain. Victor Golmer Fisker Inc. (NYSE:FSR) is in a very precarious [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-precarious-situation/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker: Precarious Situation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>													<span style="font-weight:600;font-size:20px">Summary:</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Fisker Inc. is facing potential bankruptcy and is currently uninvestable due to high risks.</li>
<li>The company has paused production for six weeks to manage inventory levels and secure additional financing.</li>
<li>Fisker&#8217;s stock represents excessive risks, and its survival as an EV company is uncertain.</li>
</ul>
<p><figure class="getty-figure" data-type="getty-image"> <img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1857201905/image_1857201905.jpg?io=getty-c-w750" alt="Advertising banners of Fisker, showroom Fisker Automotive Sales Office, emblem, concept Advertising and Marketing in Automotive Industry, American automobile manufacturer, Frankfurt - December 8, 2023" data-id="1857201905" data-type="getty-image" width="1536px" height="1024px"><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">
<p class="item-credits">Victor Golmer</p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<p><strong>Fisker Inc. (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR" title="Fisker Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">FSR</a></span>) </strong>is in a very precarious situation and it might even slide into bankruptcy which I think makes the stock uninvestable at the present time.</p>
<p>Though the electric-vehicle manufacturer just announced a $150 million financing commitment<span class="paywall-full-content invisible"> from an investor, Fisker also announced that it was pausing production for six weeks in an attempt to manage inventory levels.</span></p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible">The EV company has enough cash to survive until the end of the year, but Fisker’s stock represents exceptionally high risks that I think are too great for the average investor.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible">My stock classification for Fisker, taking into account the just announced financing commitment, is Sell.</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible">Fisker Is In A Bad Place</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible">Fisker rolled out its first electric-vehicle, the Fisker Ocean SUV, in 2023 and has since seen a substantial increase in production and sales. Besides the Fisker Ocean SUV, the electric-vehicle<span class="paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible"> company laid out an ambitious production plan that would see the market introduction of other non-SUV electric-vehicles in the coming years as well.</span></p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-17110283203075783_origin.png" rel="lightbox nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-width="1269" data-height="572" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="true" data-og-image-msn="true" data-og-image-facebook="true" data-og-image-google_news="true" data-og-image-google_plus="true" data-og-image-linkedin="true" data-lbwps-width="1269" data-lbwps-height="572" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-17110283203075783_origin.png" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-17110283203075783.png" alt="Fisker Future Models" width="640" height="288" data-width="640" data-height="288" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">Fisker Future Models <span>(Fisker)</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">With that said, the California-based company had to scale back its production target for the fourth time in December 2023 to 10,000 electric-vehicles amid waning demand in the EV industry. The revised 10,000 production target ultimately proved to be achievable as Fisker produced 10,193 Fisker Oceans in 2023.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">However, only 4,929 electric-vehicles were delivered. By delivering only 48% of its Fisker Ocean 2023 production, the company created an inventory problem that is now affecting the company’s run-rate production.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker had to lower its production forecast four times last year as the company’s production didn’t scale as fast as anticipated. Or better said: Demand for the company’s flagship electric-vehicle was not as great as forecast which in turn caused a confidence crisis among investors. Nonetheless, Fisker profited from an upswing in sales in 2023 as the company began ramping deliveries.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker produced $272.9 million in sales in 2023, up from a mere $342K in the prior year. Notwithstanding, the electric-vehicle company did not come close to achieving any profitability and Fisker reported a net loss for 2023 amounting to $762.0 million.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-1711028493715529_origin.png" rel="lightbox nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-width="1163" data-height="697" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="true" data-og-image-msn="true" data-og-image-facebook="true" data-og-image-google_news="true" data-og-image-google_plus="true" data-og-image-linkedin="true" data-lbwps-width="1163" data-lbwps-height="697" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-1711028493715529_origin.png" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-1711028493715529.png" alt="Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements Of Operations" width="640" height="384" data-width="640" data-height="384" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements Of Operations <span>(Fisker)</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker announced last week on its <a href="https://investors.fiskerinc.com/news/news-details/2024/Fisker-Announces-Receipt-of-Financing-Commitment-of-Up-to-150-Million-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank">website</a> that it secured a financing commitment from an investor in the amount of $150 million which will be paid out in four tranches.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">In addition, the electric-vehicle company <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/fisker-suspends-electric-vehicle-production/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CFisker%20will%20pause%20production%20for,%E2%80%9Cup%20to%20%24150%20million.%E2%80%9D" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank">paused</a> its Fisker Ocean production in order to work through its inventory issues and arrange a new financing deal.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker has about 4,700 electric vehicles in inventory right now which is, according to the company, valued at $200 million. In a dramatic change of events, just a few days before that, Fisker announced the <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/fisker-preparing-potential-bankruptcy-filing/" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank">hiring </a>of restructuring advisers.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">The $150 million financing commitment provides crucial support for Fisker’s balance sheet which, as of December 31, 2023, showed $325.5 million in cash. This balance dwindled to just $120.9 million as of March 15, 2024, according to a <a href="https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1720990/000119312524069658/d784326d8k.htm" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank">regulatory filing</a>, which puts the company’s survival at serious risk.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-17110285481925433_origin.png" rel="lightbox nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-width="1095" data-height="842" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="true" data-og-image-msn="true" data-og-image-facebook="true" data-og-image-google_news="true" data-og-image-google_plus="true" data-og-image-linkedin="true" data-lbwps-width="1095" data-lbwps-height="842" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-17110285481925433_origin.png" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-17110285481925433.png" alt="Balance Sheet" width="640" height="492" data-width="640" data-height="492" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">Balance Sheet <span>(Fisker)</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Bankruptcy Is On The Table</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">With a bankruptcy very much on the table, Fisker’s stock carries excessive risk and is probably not more than a gamble for the most risk-seeking investors.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">With $121 million in cash + $150 million in financing commitments, Fisker has approximately $0.50 per share in cash. I don’t think, frankly, that a reliable intrinsic value at this point can be derived for Fisker given the gigantic uncertainty embedded here, but if I had to make an educated guess, I would probably refer to the $0.50 per share in estimated cash value.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">The market models $1.1 billion in sales this year and $2.2 billion in sales in 2025 which still seems very optimistic considering that Fisker effectively revealed that it has to stop production in order to sell through its inventory.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">These sales estimates are likely to see significant corrections now that Fisker paused its production and I have serious concerns that the electric-vehicle company may not be able to realize its sales potential at all as the company’s bankruptcy odds have substantially increased in the last couple of days.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-1711028636402991_origin.png" rel="lightbox nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-width="1150" data-height="335" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="false" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="false" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="false" data-og-image-msn="false" data-og-image-facebook="false" data-og-image-google_news="false" data-og-image-google_plus="false" data-og-image-linkedin="false" data-lbwps-width="1150" data-lbwps-height="335" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-1711028636402991_origin.png" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/21/54097509-1711028636402991.png" alt="Revenue Estimate" width="640" height="186" data-width="640" data-height="186" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">Revenue Estimate <span>(Yahoo Finance)</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Why Fisker May Surprise To The Upside</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">In the unlikely event that Fisker could attract an equity investment from an OEM manufacturer, the electric-vehicle company’s stock could get a shot in the arm and Fisker might get a second lease on life.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">I think the odds of this are very low, however, and even an equity investment wouldn’t solve the problem of Fisker dealing with a demand issue for its electric-vehicles.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">An equity deal might change the equation in favor of Fisker a little bit and give the company room to breathe, but I don’t see what unique technology Fisker owns that a larger auto company would want to acquire here.</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">My Conclusion</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker’s stock at this point in time is uninvestable as the risks are excessive and even an equity investment might only prolong the company’s suffering for a little while.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">The fact that the electric-vehicle manufacturer is pausing production for six weeks in order to get rid of excess inventory strongly suggests that management misjudged the demand situation which is resulting in a number of inconvenient downstream effects such as the need to raise additional capital.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">I think that the risk/reward relationship is very unfavorable here and there is a good chance that Fisker won’t even exist anymore as an EV company by the end of the year.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">With a bankruptcy quite possibly on the horizon in the near-term, I think that investors better stay away from here and don’t consider the stock at the very least until an equity commitment of an OEM manufacturer has been secured.</p>
<div class="before_last_paragraph-piano-placeholder paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"></div>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Editor&#8217;s Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p>
<hr>
<p id="a-disclosure"><b>Analyst’s Disclosure:</b> <span>I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.</span> <span id="top-business-disclosure"> I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. </span></p>
<p id='a-disclosure-more'><strong>Seeking Alpha&#8217;s Disclosure:</strong> Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.</p>
<hr>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-precarious-situation/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker: Precarious Situation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-precarious-situation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Fisker Q4: EV Dreams Are Fizzling Out [Downgrade]</title>
		<link>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-ev-dreams-are-fizzling-out-downgrade/</link>
					<comments>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-ev-dreams-are-fizzling-out-downgrade/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wpadmin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Mar 2024 20:51:36 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FSR]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-ev-dreams-are-fizzling-out-downgrade/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Summary: Fisker&#8217;s shares dropped significantly after warning about its ability to survive. The company reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, with higher losses and lower revenues than expected. Fisker&#8217;s balance sheet is not well-capitalized, leading to the need for capital raising and a potential strategic partnership. Shares trade at a distressed valuation multiplier as bankruptcy risks are [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-ev-dreams-are-fizzling-out-downgrade/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker Q4: EV Dreams Are Fizzling Out [Downgrade]</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>													<span style="font-weight:600;font-size:20px">Summary:</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Fisker&#8217;s shares dropped significantly after warning about its ability to survive.</li>
<li>The company reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, with higher losses and lower revenues than expected.</li>
<li>Fisker&#8217;s balance sheet is not well-capitalized, leading to the need for capital raising and a potential strategic partnership.</li>
<li>Shares trade at a distressed valuation multiplier as bankruptcy risks are growing.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="getty-figure" data-type="getty-image"> <img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1438309832/image_1438309832.jpg?io=getty-c-w750" alt="Down crisis financial business market graph on investment economy finance chart background of loss money economic crash exchange or stock recession diagram concept and fall arrow inflation price rate." data-id="1438309832" data-type="getty-image" width="1536px" height="810px" loading="lazy"><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">
<p class="item-credits">Lemon_tm</p>
</figcaption></figure>
<p>Shares of Fisker (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR" title="Fisker Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">FSR</a></span>) lost about half of their value after the electric vehicle company submitted its fourth-quarter earnings sheet at the end of February, delayed its 10-K and management warned about its ability to survive. A strategic partnership with a<span class="paywall-full-content invisible"> large legacy automaker is now the most likely outcome for Fisker which is quickly running out of cash. Fisker has been a promising electric vehicle start-up in 2022 and 2023, but slowing demand for electric vehicles and an increasingly competitive industry environment are weighing on the company’s production potential. I do not recommend growth investors to establish a position anymore and down-grade my rating to hold considering that Fisker may attract a strategic investor!</span></p>
<figure class="sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/saupload_01a55d1f3f0e7af576360d322d37427c.png" alt="Chart" width="635" height="366" class="sa-ycharts-img" data-width="635" data-height="366" loading="lazy"><figcaption>Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://ycharts.com" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">YCharts</a></figcaption></figure>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible"><strong>Previous rating</strong></h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible">I rated shares of Fisker a <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4652904-fisker-strong-value-near-1-year-lows-rating-upgrade" title="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4652904-fisker-strong-value-near-1-year-lows-rating-upgrade" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow external noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external">strong buy</a> after the company’s third-quarter earnings release because the company did make progress<span class="paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible"> in terms of reducing its operating losses and Q3&#8217;23 delivery momentum. Shares of Fisker have widely underperformed my expectations &#8212; they have declined 85% since November &#8212; chiefly because Fisker further lowered its guidance for FY 2023 deliveries after my last update. The EV maker ultimately only achieved a delivery volume of slightly more than 10k units. Fisker will need to raise capital urgently or risk going out of business.</span></p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><strong><span id="jS$219" class="j3">Fisker</span> reported mixed earnings</strong></h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker’s fourth-quarter earnings sheet (<a href="https://investors.fiskerinc.com/news/news-details/2024/Fisker-Inc.-Announces-Preliminary-Q4-and-Full-Year-2023-Results/default.aspx" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://investors.fiskerinc.com/news/news-details/2024/Fisker-Inc.-Announces-Preliminary-Q4-and-Full-Year-2023-Results/default.aspx" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">Source</a>) was not great: the EV maker bombed on both the bottom and the top line as it is running out of cash and EV demand is not as strong as initially predicted. It reported a much higher than expected loss of $0.37 per-share ($0.22 per-share worse than the consensus expectation) while revenues came in $110.7M below the prediction.</p>
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099733363779128_origin.png" rel="lightbox nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-width="650" data-height="233" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="true" data-og-image-msn="true" data-og-image-facebook="false" data-og-image-google_news="true" data-og-image-google_plus="false" data-og-image-linkdin="true" data-lbwps-width="650" data-lbwps-height="233" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099733363779128_origin.png" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099733363779128.png" alt="Seeking Alpha" width="640" height="229" data-width="640" data-height="229" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker&#8217;s production, revenue achievements, guidance for FY 2024</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker ramped up production for its Ocean SUV in FY 2023 which led to the start of major revenue-generating operations. However, Fisker had to walk back its production target multiple times in FY 2023: in Q3’23, the EV maker guided for a production volume of 13,000-17,000, but updated the guidance again <a href="https://www.electrive.com/2023/11/14/fisker-lowers-production-forecast-again/#:~:text=The%20electric%20car%20manufacturer%20Fisker,produce%20just%20over%2010%2C000%20units." rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://www.electrive.com/2023/11/14/fisker-lowers-production-forecast-again/#:~:text=The%20electric%20car%20manufacturer%20Fisker,produce%20just%20over%2010%2C000%20units." target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">to just 10k units</a> in December. Fisker ended up producing 10,142 Fisker Oceans in FY 2023 due to production and certification delays in Europe as well as supplier issues. In terms of production accomplishments, FY 2023 was a very disappointing year.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker did, however, make progress in terms of ramping up revenues which reached $272.9M in FY 2023, showing significant growth from a prior-year revenue volume of only $342k. As the EV maker grew its production footprint, Fisker also managed to lower its operating loss from $530.2M in FY 2022 to $417.1M, showing a decline of 21% Y/Y.</p>
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731826634748_origin.jpeg" rel="lightbox noopener nofollow external noreferrer" data-width="1149" data-height="697" title="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731826634748_origin.jpeg" target="_blank" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="true" data-og-image-msn="true" data-og-image-facebook="true" data-og-image-google_news="true" data-og-image-google_plus="true" data-og-image-linkdin="true" data-lbwps-width="1149" data-lbwps-height="697" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731826634748_origin.jpeg" data-wpel-link="external"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731826634748.jpeg" alt="Fisker" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption"><span>Fisker</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker has been suffering, like other EV makers did, from <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/industry-pain-abounds-electric-car-demand-hits-slowdown-2024-01-30/" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/industry-pain-abounds-electric-car-demand-hits-slowdown-2024-01-30/" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">waning demand</a> for electric vehicles in FY 2023, resulting in multiple EV companies cutting their production outlooks. Rivian Automotive (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIVN" title="Rivian Automotive, Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">RIVN</a>), as an example, submitted a disappointing production forecast for FY 2024 that also caused a major stock sell-off.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Lucid Group (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LCID" title="Lucid Group, Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">LCID</a>), another embattled EV maker, has guided for only a 9k production volume this year. Slowing EV demand is mainly to blame for these disappointing trends in the electric vehicle market. For the same reason, Ford (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/F" title="Ford Motor Company" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">F</a>) <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4071374-ford-halts-shipments-of-electric-f-150-truck-due-to-quality-issue" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">recently cut back on its F-150 Lightning production</a>.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker&#8217;s management expects to produce and sell between 20k and 22k Fisker Oceans this year which the company called conservative. It would represent, however, 107% year over year growth, at the mid-point of guidance. Given Fisker’s multiple guidance down-grades in FY 2023, I am at this point very skeptical about Fisker’s projections.</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><strong>Balance sheet, expectations for FY 2024</strong></h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">With production growth disappointing in FY 2023, EV demand slowing and Fisker not having a very well-capitalized balance sheet, management has warned that it may not continue as a going concern and that it&#8217;s pursuing a strategic OEM partnership. The company also <a href="https://investors.fiskerinc.com/news/news-details/2024/Fisker-Introduces-New-Dealer-Partnership-Model-in-Strategic-Transformation-for-Company/default.aspx" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://investors.fiskerinc.com/news/news-details/2024/Fisker-Introduces-New-Dealer-Partnership-Model-in-Strategic-Transformation-for-Company/default.aspx" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">announced</a> a new dealership partnership model at the beginning of the year that will see the addition of 100 dealers (50 in the U.S./Canada and 50 in Europe). The move away from direct sales is expected to help streamline distribution and sales.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker had $325.5M cash available on its balance sheet (not counting restricted cash) at the end of FY 2023 which is equal to about one year&#8217;s worth of operating expenditures. Given that Fisker&#8217;s demand situation is not as great as expected and that the company is seeing its cash pile dwindle &#8212; Fisker&#8217;s cash accounts fell 55% Y/Y in FY 2023 &#8212; the EV maker will have to raise capital to ensure that it can operate as a going concern.</p>
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731837552657_origin.jpeg" rel="lightbox noopener nofollow external noreferrer" data-width="1174" data-height="540" title="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731837552657_origin.jpeg" target="_blank" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="true" data-og-image-msn="true" data-og-image-facebook="true" data-og-image-google_news="true" data-og-image-google_plus="true" data-og-image-linkdin="true" data-lbwps-width="1174" data-lbwps-height="540" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731837552657_origin.jpeg" data-wpel-link="external"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/53926820-17099731837552657.jpeg" alt="Fisker" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption"><span>Fisker</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">This means that the EV maker is under pressure to raise capital quickly which may be raised in one of three ways: 1) Convertible senior debt, 2) Equity, or 3) Via a strategic partnership.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Considering how much the share price has fallen lately &#8212; it is down to just $0.38 &#8212; the most likely outcome is that a legacy automaker will step in, become a strategic investor and provide a cash infusion, in my opinion. Legacy automakers have cash and could potentially use Fisker&#8217;s EV technology for their own production lines.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Legacy makers have also been willing to fund operating losses of innovative start-ups in FY 2023. This is what happened in the case of both NIO (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIO" title="NIO Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">NIO</a>) and XPeng (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XPEV" title="XPeng Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">XPEV</a>) which received strategic equity investments from CYVN Holdings and Volkswagen last year. Reu<span class="highlighted_text">ters reported <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4074962-troubled-ev-maker-fisker-in-talks-with-nissan-reports" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">last week that Nissan</a>, the third-largest Japanese car brand by</span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4074962-troubled-ev-maker-fisker-in-talks-with-nissan-reports" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer"> revenue, could be a potentially interested party</a>.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Nissan, or another major car brand, could become a strategic anchor investor in Fisker and make a cash infusion in order to ensure Fisker’s going concern. Such an agreement would likely go hand-in-hand with additional lay-offs &#8212; Fisker already announced a 15% headcount reduction &#8212; and possibly a reduced production line-up in order for the EV maker to concentrate on a smaller number of products, thereby saving operating expenses.</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><strong>Fisker’s valuation</strong></h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker is trading at a distressed valuation multiplier that reflects growing odds of a potential bankruptcy. Shares of Fisker trade at only 0.11X FY 2025 revenues and top line estimates for U.S.-based EV companies have reset sharply lower this year, showing that investors (including me) have overestimated the demand for electric vehicles.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Shares currently trade at 2.8X book value with Fisker having a book value of $0.14 per-share as of Q4&#8217;23. Higher than expected losses have eroded Fisker&#8217;s equity value quite significantly in the last year. This book value, $0.14 per-share would be my fair value estimate for Fisker given the current, challenging business setup and need for additional capital. However, Fisker&#8217;s shares have a positive catalyst if the EV maker manages to get a major cash infusion from a strategic investor.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Rivian, in my opinion, represents the best value in the U.S.-based EV start-up group because the EV maker has a very strong balance sheet and the least amount of risk, given its much higher annual production volume (Rivian has guided for 57k electric vehicles to be produced this year). I believe Lucid still manages to trade at an inflated valuation given its multiple disappointments with regard to its production ramp.</p>
<figure class="sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/9/saupload_6d559d62c648990b58eba01d34b3efe0.png" alt="Chart" width="635" height="366" class="sa-ycharts-img" data-width="635" data-height="366" loading="lazy"><figcaption>Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://ycharts.com" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">YCharts</a></figcaption></figure>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><strong>Risks with Fisker</strong></h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">The obvious risk here is that Fisker may not survive if it can’t entice a large, cashed-up car brand to throw the EV maker a lifeline. As a result, there is a very real risk that Fisker may follow in the footsteps of Lordstown and go out of business. Should Fisker secure a strategic anchor investment from a larger legacy automaker, the company’s share price could be good for a very sharp move to the upside. If such a move fails, Fisker is likely to run out of cash in FY 2024 in which case equity investors would get wiped out.</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><strong>Closing thoughts</strong></h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker is in a challenging situation and the writing for this EV maker may be already on the wall. I believe the mistake that everybody made (including me) was that we overestimated demand for electric vehicles and underestimated how difficult it would be for EV makers to grow their production footprints in an increasingly competitive market. Fisker’s last hope at this point may be an equity investment from Nissan or another major car manufacturer which to me, given the decline in the firm&#8217;s market cap, is the most sensible outcome. In any case, the situation has clearly deteriorated since my last update and since Fisker is also running low on cash, I am downgrading my rating to hold!</p>
<div class="before_last_paragraph-piano-placeholder paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"></div>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Editor&#8217;s Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p>
<hr>
<p id="a-disclosure"><b>Analyst’s Disclosure:</b> <span>I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.</span> <span id="top-business-disclosure"> I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. </span></p>
<p id='a-disclosure-more'><strong>Seeking Alpha&#8217;s Disclosure:</strong> Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.</p>
<hr>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-ev-dreams-are-fizzling-out-downgrade/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker Q4: EV Dreams Are Fizzling Out [Downgrade]</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-ev-dreams-are-fizzling-out-downgrade/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Fisker: Potential Trouble Brewing (Rating Downgrade)</title>
		<link>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-stock-potential-trouble-brewing-rating-downgrade/</link>
					<comments>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-stock-potential-trouble-brewing-rating-downgrade/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wpadmin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jan 2024 07:03:23 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FSR]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-stock-potential-trouble-brewing-rating-downgrade/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Summary: Fisker fell well short of its 2023 production and delivery goals, producing only 10,142 units of its Ocean SUV. The company&#8217;s revenue for 2023 is expected to be around $376 million, significantly lower than the initial estimate of nearly $2 billion. FSR&#8217;s overall demand is in question, and it may require another capital raise [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-stock-potential-trouble-brewing-rating-downgrade/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker: Potential Trouble Brewing (Rating Downgrade)</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>													<span style="font-weight:600;font-size:20px">Summary:</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Fisker fell well short of its 2023 production and delivery goals, producing only 10,142 units of its Ocean SUV.</li>
<li>The company&#8217;s revenue for 2023 is expected to be around $376 million, significantly lower than the initial estimate of nearly $2 billion.</li>
<li>FSR&#8217;s overall demand is in question, and it may require another capital raise to continue its growth plans.</li>
</ul>
<p><figure class="getty-figure" data-type="getty-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1857201905/image_1857201905.jpg?io=getty-c-w750" alt="Advertising banners of Fisker, showroom Fisker Automotive Sales Office, emblem, concept Advertising and Marketing in Automotive Industry, American automobile manufacturer, Frankfurt - December 8, 2023" data-id="1857201905" data-type="getty-image" width="1536px" height="1024px" loading="lazy"><figcaption>
<p class="item-credits">Victor Golmer</p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<p>As we start the new year, electric vehicle companies are reporting their 2023 production and delivery totals. Many of the sector&#8217;s leaders fared mostly as expected, but today I&#8217;m here to focus on the name that perhaps disappointed the most last<span class="paywall-full-content invisible"> year. Fisker (</span><span class="ticker-hover-wrapper paywall-full-content invisible">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR" title="Fisker Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">FSR</a></span><span class="paywall-full-content invisible">) fell dramatically short of its production and delivery goals for the year, and despite the stock falling as a result, things may be even worse in 2024.</span></p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible">Fisker ultimately produced 10,142 units of its Ocean SUV during the year, less than a quarter of the original hope for around 42,400 vehicles. Throughout the year there were multiple excuses for falling short, whether it was supplier issues, factory holidays, or cutting production to align with delivery logistics. When the year started, street analysts were looking for almost $2 billion in revenue from the company in 2023, but <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR/earnings/revisions" title="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR/earnings/revisions" target="_blank" class="paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible" rel="noopener nofollow external noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external">current estimates</a><span class="paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible"> call for just about $376 million.</span></p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">That current revenue average might be cut a little more as analysts digest the latest numbers from the company. Total deliveries of the Ocean came in at around 4,700 for the year, and while most were the most expensive variant, revenues have missed at Fisker&#8217;s quarterly report for each of the past four periods. The large disparity between production and deliveries for Q4 will also have some serious cash flow implications, and the cheapest Ocean variant is already being sold very early on. The company fell well short of delivering close to all production as CEO Henrik Fisker had hoped to do as stated on the <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4624105-fisker-inc-fsr-q2-2023-earnings-call-transcript" title="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4624105-fisker-inc-fsr-q2-2023-earnings-call-transcript" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow external noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external">Q2 conference call</a>:</p>
<blockquote class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<p>Now talking about how many cars can we deliver? Let&#8217;s say we do 20,000 vehicles. How many of those can we deliver? Like Geeta mentioned, the strategy we have is that probably, in November, is the last shipment that goes out to the US. So we can still deliver all these vehicles in late December. And then all the vehicles that are produced in December are going to be delivered in Europe. And the very last vehicles probably made just before Christmas are going to be delivered in Austria and Germany because you&#8217;re talking about, like Geeta said, a couple of days to deliver those cars. So I would say our target would be to get up to about a 95% delivery rate of all volume.</p>
</blockquote>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">My biggest question currently has to do with overall demand. Just eight months ago in early May 2023, Fisker stated that it had roughly 65,000 reservations for the Ocean. Given that it has produced less than one-sixth of that through the end of 2023, you would think the waiting list would be quite long still. However, if you go to the company&#8217;s page seen below, a 3-month or less estimate is shown for a custom-built vehicle.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/3/1017993-17043066542952087.jpg" alt="Ocean Delivery" width="612" height="657" data-width="612" data-height="657" loading="lazy"><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">Ocean Delivery Estimates (Fisker Website)</p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Even if most of those reservations were for the cheapest variant, something doesn&#8217;t add up here. I don&#8217;t know if we&#8217;ll get another reservation count from the company anytime soon, so I&#8217;m hoping one analyst asks about it on the Q4 call. Fisker has already lowered US pricing on the Ocean Extreme trim from $68,999 to $61,499 which is not a good sign, although it did raise pricing on two of the lower-priced variants. With analysts currently calling for $2.15 billion in revenue during 2024, the company is going to need to boost its production and deliveries quite significantly to avoid further disappointment.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Fisker finished Q3 with a little more than half a billion in cash, but it also had nearly $1.2 billion in principal debt on the balance sheet. The company&#8217;s <a href="https://investors.fiskerinc.com/news/news-details/2023/Fisker-Inc.-Announces-Third-Quarter-2023-Financial-Results/default.aspx" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://investors.fiskerinc.com/news/news-details/2023/Fisker-Inc.-Announces-Third-Quarter-2023-Financial-Results/default.aspx" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">earnings release stated</a> it could raise another $550 million in proceeds through debt as part of one of last year&#8217;s agreements. However, cash burn in Q3 was over $330 million alone, and that was with a much smaller inventory build. With the company also looking to launch multiple new vehicles over the next couple of years, it seems likely that another capital raise will be needed.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Street analysts continue to be extremely bullish on Fisker shares despite all of these potential issues. The <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR/ratings/sell-side-ratings?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&amp;source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link" title="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR/ratings/sell-side-ratings?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&amp;source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow external noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external">average price target</a> is currently $3.75, which represents more than 150% upside from current levels. However, that number is down another $5 plus since <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4633229-fisker-stock-execution-near-term-growth-prospects-uncertain" title="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4633229-fisker-stock-execution-near-term-growth-prospects-uncertain" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow external noreferrer" data-wpel-link="external">my previous article</a>, and it was over $25 in early 2022. With only about a dozen analysts covering the name, that current street average is also being propped up a bit by the $11 high target.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">When looking at valuation, Fisker currently goes for 0.27 times currently expected 2024 revenues. That puts it around the likes of Ford (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/F" title="Ford Motor Company" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">F</a>) at 0.27 and General Motors (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GM" title="General Motors Company" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">GM</a>) at 0.29 times their expected sales for this year. However, those two industry giants have very profitable ICE vehicle businesses that kick off plenty of free cash flow. Fisker trades at a large discount to names like Polestar (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSNY" title="Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">PSNY</a>) at 0.96 times and Chinese player NIO (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NIO" title="NIO Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">NIO</a>) at 1.29 times. If you group those four competitors, the unweighted average is about 0.70 times, so Fisker&#8217;s valuation is certainly depressed. Fisker also lacks access to the key US Federal EV tax credit that competitors like the Tesla (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TSLA" title="Tesla, Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">TSLA</a>) Model Y still have, putting it at a pricing disadvantage currently.</p>
<div class="before_last_paragraph-piano-placeholder paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"></div>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Given the continued struggles at Fisker, I am therefore downgrading the stock to a sell today. The company only produced about a quarter of its goal last year and didn&#8217;t even deliver half of those vehicles. Despite huge reservation numbers cited last spring, delivery estimate timelines seem rather low, and analyst estimates just keep coming down. With Fisker struggling to ramp things, cash burn has been quite high, and that might result in another capital raise. While the valuation here isn&#8217;t terrible, more disappointment could easily send shares lower still. If the stock finds a way to fall below $1, the possibility of a reverse split could become another negative catalyst as well.</p>
<hr>
<p id="a-disclosure"><b>Analyst’s Disclosure:</b> <span>I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.</span> <span id="top-business-disclosure"> I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. </span></p>
<p>Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.</p>
<p id='a-disclosure-more'><strong>Seeking Alpha&#8217;s Disclosure:</strong> Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.</p>
<hr>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-stock-potential-trouble-brewing-rating-downgrade/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker: Potential Trouble Brewing (Rating Downgrade)</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-stock-potential-trouble-brewing-rating-downgrade/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Fisker: Betting On The Last Standing</title>
		<link>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-betting-on-last-standing/</link>
					<comments>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-betting-on-last-standing/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wpadmin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Dec 2023 10:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FSR]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-betting-on-last-standing/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Summary: Fisker&#8217;s stock has declined by 75% since my hold coverage on April 2023 due to successive disappointments and risks as an early-stage car company. Many EV companies are in the same boat; and have faced financial difficulties and production challenges, presenting an opportunity for Fisker. Fisker has positive factors such as delegating manufacturing, diverse [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-betting-on-last-standing/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker: Betting On The Last Standing</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>													<span style="font-weight:600;font-size:20px">Summary:</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Fisker&#8217;s stock has declined by 75% since my hold coverage on April 2023 due to successive disappointments and risks as an early-stage car company.</li>
<li>Many EV companies are in the same boat; and have faced financial difficulties and production challenges, presenting an opportunity for Fisker.</li>
<li>Fisker has positive factors such as delegating manufacturing, diverse vehicle range, unique features, and demand in a global market. Fisker Ocean is finishing 2023 with multiple design and EV awards under its belt.</li>
<li>There is a chance that Fisker becomes one of the last EV upstarts still standing and this may provide us an investment opportunity here with asymmetric rewards.</li>
</ul>
<p><figure class="getty-figure" data-type="getty-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404812867/image_1404812867.jpg?io=getty-c-w750" alt="Portrait of young woman charging her electric car" data-id="1404812867" data-type="getty-image" width="1536px" height="1024px" loading="lazy"><figcaption>
<p class="item-credits">praetorianphoto/E+ via Getty Images</p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<p>My <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592071-fisker-stock-survival-of-the-fittest" rel="noopener nofollow external noreferrer" title="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592071-fisker-stock-survival-of-the-fittest" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">first</a> coverage of Fisker (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSR" title="Fisker Inc." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener noreferrer">FSR</a></span>) was back in April of 2023. I had been observing the EV space for a while and pretty much explained the space as a playground for the Darwinian theory<span class="paywall-full-content invisible"> of &#8220;Survival of the fittest&#8221; being played out in real-time. Even though I liked Fisker&#8217;s chance of survival, I was not sure of the path it would take, and hence my rating was a Hold. At the end of the day, its risks as an early-stage car company (not a single car had been delivered yet) and its valuation made me cautious, and I am glad that I held off on investing! The reward for the risk was simply not there and the stock is down 75% since publication as successive disappointments from the company have punished the stock severely.</span></p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible">I<span class="paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible"> believe now that the price has started to reflect the risks and there is some potential for a speculative investment here. In this article, we will revisit and reexamine the landscape, and I will briefly mention how I typically handle my speculative investments.</span></p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Re-examining the landscape</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">2020, 2021, and 2022 saw multiple EV companies going public, and many preferred the SPAC route as the companies could paint the picture they wanted for the projection of revenues. Fast-forward to the <a href="https://wsj-article-webview-generator-prod.sc.onservo.com/webview/WP-WSJ-0001434994?adobe_mc=TS%3D1702997760%7CMCMID%3D35074692542204273556766160061857085301%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg&amp;wsj_native_webview=android&amp;ace_environment=androidphone%2Cwebview&amp;ace_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D" rel="noopener nofollow external noreferrer" title="https://wsj-article-webview-generator-prod.sc.onservo.com/webview/WP-WSJ-0001434994?adobe_mc=TS%3D1702997760%7CMCMID%3D35074692542204273556766160061857085301%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg&amp;wsj_native_webview=android&amp;ace_environment=androidphone%2Cwebview&amp;ace_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">present,</a> in an analysis that has about 43 companies, multiple companies have already declared bankruptcy or have been acquired for a fraction of their IPO valuation. Over 30 companies are projected to run out of cash within the next few years.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<figure class="regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible"><span><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/56911839-17031903621832368_origin.png" rel="lightbox nofollow external noopener noreferrer" data-width="1407" data-height="1006" data-og-image-twitter_small_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_large_card="true" data-og-image-twitter_image_post="true" data-og-image-msn="true" data-og-image-facebook="true" data-og-image-google_news="true" data-og-image-google_plus="true" data-og-image-linkdin="true" data-lbwps-width="1407" data-lbwps-height="1006" data-lbwps-srcsmall="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/56911839-17031903621832368_origin.png" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank"><img decoding="async" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/56911839-17031903621832368.png" alt="Status of publicly traded clean transportation startups" loading="lazy"></a></span><figcaption>
<p class="item-caption">WSJ</p>
</figcaption></figure>
</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">What is interesting here is the fact that even among the companies that have the cash to continue the business for the next few years, many have not seen the needed success in production. This is where I believe our core opportunity lies.</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">The good, bad, and ugly</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">First, let us get the negatives out of the way. Sure, there is a lot of pessimism about the viability and the difficulty of production, but let&#8217;s separate the noise and look at the facts.</p>
<ul class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<li>The company revised its delivery estimates <a href="https://electrek.co/2023/12/04/fisker-dials-back-2023-production-targets-yet-again-fights-to-keep-going-ev/" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://electrek.co/2023/12/04/fisker-dials-back-2023-production-targets-yet-again-fights-to-keep-going-ev/" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">downward</a> multiple times and could not and will not meet original production expectations for 2023. So far, it has delivered more than 1000 <a href="https://fiskerati.com/shareholders/fsr/latest-fisker-investor-presentation-with-business-update/" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://fiskerati.com/shareholders/fsr/latest-fisker-investor-presentation-with-business-update/" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">vehicles</a> for Q3 and was only able to hit deliveries of more than 100 per day in November.</li>
<li>Reported revenues of $71.8M for Q3, which was far short of the consensus expectations of $100.8M</li>
<li>Still needs to find strategic partners for PEAR and ALASKA models</li>
<li>Declining cash means capital raises and increased dilution for the shareholders. Currently, it has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.2 and at the end of Q3 had about 180 days of cash left.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">The good</h3>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"><a href="https://www.topspeed.com/how-fisker-different-from-other-ev-start-ups/" rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://www.topspeed.com/how-fisker-different-from-other-ev-start-ups/" target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">Compared</a> to the EV companies that are still in their early stage or a similar stage as Fisker, it has several positives.</p>
<ul class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">
<li>Delegates the manufacturing process to companies with decades of experience, which means it can sidestep many of the manufacturing missteps an early-stage car manufacturer could potentially make</li>
<li>Focused on expanding its range of electric vehicles to include a diverse selection catering to various preferences and price tags (Alaska: pick-up truck, Pear: compact budget-friendly SUV, Ronin: four-door GT, Ocean Force-E: off-road version of Ocean)</li>
<li>Features that truly distinguish the car from the rest of the pack (<strong>SolarSky</strong>: Panoramic sunroof that can add additional range, <strong>bi-directional charger</strong>: Can provide power during emergencies, <strong>California mode</strong>: turns the car into a convertible, etc.)</li>
<li>Pricing of its current product Fisker Ocean is similar to comparable premium petrol SUVs ($39K &#8211; $61K)</li>
</ul>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Additionally, the company has been working to provide and expand its lounges and centers in multiple countries, which will aim to help prospective customers in experiencing the company&#8217;s products. For existing customers, it is rapidly expanding service capabilities in the U.S. and Canada and hiring mobile service technicians nationwide. Even though the company has not been able to stick to its originally set delivery targets, the demand and excitement still exist in a large global addressable market. It also began implementing over-the-air software updates, delivering product improvements, and introducing new features to owners in response to customer feedback. And finally, rounding off 2023, Fisker Ocean <em><strong>snagged multiple awards</strong></em> across Europe related to product design and the best full Electric Vehicle.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">All in all, it is hard to dismiss the positives going on for this company. The company has hit several speed bumps this year, but the core thesis remains strong. It has a working product that has demand, its features make it quite distinguishable from the competition, its go-to-market strategy has clearly resonated with the customers and they have an exciting product line-up!</p>
<h2 class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">Making speculative bets</h2>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">The current stock price may have mispriced the rewards should the company continue to ramp up its deliveries and the demand continues to stay strong for its Ocean product. The cherry on the cake would be the new models also going into production sticking to the timeline and the demand remains strong there as well.</p>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">In evaluating speculative plays, I mainly check the investment for its upside (highly asymmetric for early-stage growth companies), and then make it part of my barbell portfolio. Fisker would be a perfect example of a candidate that would go into a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/013114/barbell-investment-strategy.asp#:~:text=What%20Is%20the%20Barbell%20Strategy,of%2Dthe%2Droad%20choices." rel="nofollow noopener external noreferrer" title="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/013114/barbell-investment-strategy.asp#:~:text=What%20Is%20the%20Barbell%20Strategy,of%2Dthe%2Droad%20choices." target="_blank" data-wpel-link="external">barbell</a> portfolio. For such a portfolio, you would have extremely safe investments on one end and extremely risky ones on the other end. The safe investments would carry no risk, even in the face of extreme market drawdowns (Ex: US Treasury bonds). The aggressive side of the barbell while it has the full risk of losing your entire investment, it also has unlimited upside. The aggressive side also has its risk distributed between &#8220;N&#8221; such entities (where &#8220;N&#8221; is the number of investments an investor is comfortable with)</p>
<div class="before_last_paragraph-piano-placeholder paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets"></div>
<p class="paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets">In this situation, I would be comfortable using a minute percentage of my portfolio to take a long position in Fisker at this time and hope for this to pay out well over the longer term.</p>
<hr>
<p id="a-disclosure"><b>Analyst’s Disclosure:</b> <span>I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in FSR over the next 72 hours.</span> <span id="top-business-disclosure"> I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. </span></p>
<p id='a-disclosure-more'><strong>Seeking Alpha&#8217;s Disclosure:</strong> Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.</p>
<hr>
<p>The post <a href="https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-betting-on-last-standing/" data-wpel-link="internal">Fisker: Betting On The Last Standing</a> appeared first on <a href="https://up2info.com" data-wpel-link="internal">Up2info.com</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://up2info.com/stock-market-analysis/fisker-betting-on-last-standing/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
