The benchmark S&P 500 index closed the last week of February 0.44% lower than the prior week and 0.87% lower compared to January at 6,878.84.

The markets saw a selloff on Monday as renewed uncertainty gripped markets following President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcement. Additionally, AI disruption fears continued to linger as software stocks dropped.

And while markets rebounded from the Monday selloff, large tech earnings and a hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation report marred sentiments.

Investor unease around the likelihood of an AI bubble is said to have impacted the megacap technology stocks.

Financials were also on the losing side. State Street Financial Sel Sec SPDR ETF (XLF) logged a loss of 2.02% on a weekly basis to close at $51.43.

Among the megacap stocks, American Express (AXP) led the pack. The stock pulled back by 10.77% to $308.90 amid a research report on Sunday, which revived fears that stablecoin-based technology will obviate the need for traditional card networks.

On Monday, Citrini Research released a hypothetical scenario on the disruption that agentic AI and stablecoins might cause in the enterprise software and payment sphere.

Wells Fargo (WFC), said to be among the Wall Street lenders exposed to the failed UK mortgage finance firm – Market Financial Solutions, was the next on the list.

The stock retreated 8.17% from the prior week to close at $81.45.

On the flip side, HSBC Holdings (HSBC) stood out as a clear winner in the category. The stock added 5.68% to end the week at $93.16.

Sentiments were lifted after the London-headquartered lender posted a higher Q4 revenue, a dividend hike, and new financial targets for 2026, 2027, and 2028.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) was also gaining in the run-up to the release of its Q4 results. BRK.A was up 1.41% week-over-week to $757K, while BRK.B increased 1.35% to $504.95.

Read about BRK’s Q4 earnings here – Berkshire Hathaway Q4 operating earnings -30% Y/Y, cash pile hits $373.3B.

Nu Holdings (NU) (-14.55% W/W to $14.98) was the top decliner among largecap stocks.

The São Paulo-based digital banking platform reported record Q4 revenue that exceeded Wall Street estimates, but saw a decrease in its efficiency ratio.

Meanwhile, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) (+32.40% W/W to $83.44) was the top weekly gainer.

The company behind the USDC stablecoin delivered Q4 earnings and revenue that topped consensus estimates as USDC in circulation at the end of the quarter climbed 72% from a year ago.

PayPal (PYPL) followed with a 10.95% weekly advance to close at $46.21.

The payments stock soared after a report that Stripe is considering an acquisition of all or parts of the company. However, another report said the company isn’t in talks to sell itself to Stripe or anyone else.

The recent stock slump is said to have sparked the interest of some potential acquirers.

Read what analysts have to say here.

For the midcap stocks, Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) (+40.53% W/W to $23.23) and Sezzle (SEZL) (+16.25% W/W to $72.95) were among the significant gainers. Both companies posted Q4 earnings that exceeded the Street consensus.

SLM (SLM), having declined 17.08% from last week to close at $18.74, led the losers in the category

Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) followed. The stock slumped 16.87% to $44.40 after the company was sued by investors in one of its funds over losses related to its holdings in First Brands Group.

Additionally, Jefferies is said to have had an exposure of ~£100M to the failed UK firm MFS.

FS KKR Capital (FSK) (-16.73% to $10.80) and Banco Macro (BMA) (-16.35% W/W to $77.18). The two posted Q4 results this week, with FSK slashing dividend by ~30%.

In the smallcap category, PRA Group (PRAA), Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), and Walker & Dunlop (WD) were among the notable movers.

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Management View

• David Velez-Osomo, Founder, Chairman & CEO, described 2025 as a “fantastic year” for Nubank, highlighting that “Q4 ’25 truly showed the strength of our business model.” The company closed the year with 131 million customers, adding 17 million net new customers and maintaining an activity rate of 83%. Velez-Osomo stated, “ARPAC reached $15 per active customer, up approximately 9% quarter-over-quarter and 27% year-over-year, driven by deeper monetization across our platform.” Revenues in Q4 2025 reached $4.9 billion, up 45% year-over-year, and net income reached $895 million with a record 33% return on equity. Velez-Osomo also emphasized the launch of more than 100 new products and features across markets, expansion in credit products, and the scaling of AI-enabled services and tools. The company launched instant payments in Colombia, expanded Mexico’s cash network, and rolled out subscription-based credit cards and new payroll loan modalities in Brazil.

• Velez-Osomo outlined 2026 priorities: “As we enter 2026, we see this as an inflection year. The year we begin transitioning from a Latin American leader to a global digital banking platform.” The three pillars for 2026 are winning in core markets (Brazil and Mexico), strengthening foundations for international expansion (including the U.S. opportunity), and expanding AI capabilities.

• CFO Guilherme Marques do Lago introduced a new managerial reporting framework and detailed that the total portfolio ended the quarter at $32.7 billion, up 40% year-over-year, with credit cards increasing 12.2% quarter-over-quarter. Lago noted, “Net interest income increased 13% quarter-over-quarter, driven by portfolio growth and improved funding costs, especially in Mexico.” He also highlighted a one-time $25 million regulatory levy in Mexico and explained changes in the efficiency ratio methodology, which declined to 19.9% under the new calculation.

Outlook

• Velez-Osomo signaled that 2026 is an “inflection year” as the company aims to become a global digital banking platform, with significant investments in Brazil and Mexico, and laying operational groundwork for U.S. expansion following OCC conditional approval for a U.S. national bank charter. AI expansion is a stated priority, with nuFormer to be deployed in new markets and products. Management expects “upward pressure on the efficiency ratio in the near term” due to investments in global expansion, AI, and return-to-office initiatives, but remains confident that “efficiency to continue improving over the medium term as these investments that we are making today begin to generate returns.”

Financial Results

• Net income for Q4 2025 was $895 million, representing a 50% year-over-year increase, and return on equity reached 33%. Revenues for the quarter were $4.9 billion, up 45% year-over-year. Gross profit was nearly $2 billion, up 38% year-over-year. Total deposits grew to $41.9 billion, up 29% year-over-year. The efficiency ratio, under a new methodology, dropped below 20% for the first time at 19.9%.

• The credit portfolio grew to $32.7 billion, with credit cards showing the strongest quarterly growth since 2023. Unsecured lending balances surpassed $8 billion, with record-high originations of $4 billion in the quarter. Asset quality remained stable, with consolidated 15-90 day NPLs improving for the fourth consecutive quarter and 90+ day NPLs declining to 6.6%.

• Notable one-time items included a positive $58 million impact from deferred tax asset remeasurement due to a Brazilian tax rate increase and negative impacts of $29 million collectively from return-to-office provisions and the Prosofipo levy in Mexico.

Q&A

• Eduardo Rosman, Banco BTG Pactual, asked about AI disruption risk. Velez-Osomo responded, “It is both a challenge and has potential for disruption as well as significant opportunity. Net-net, we think it’s more opportunity than challenge for us. But we have to take it pretty seriously, and we are taking it very seriously.”

• Jorge Kuri, Morgan Stanley, inquired about loan growth and FGTS headwinds. CFO do Lago explained that unused credit limits increased by about $11 billion, a 60% rise, and that “the new regulations of FGTS… have seen our originations of FGTS loans dropping by about 50% to 60%.” Excluding FGTS, portfolio sequential growth would have been about 13% to 14%.

• Pedro Leduc, Itaú BBA, addressed efficiency trajectory and revenue drivers for 2026. CFO do Lago stated, “We may see kind of upward pressure on efficiency ratio in the coming quarters… as a result of very deliberate investments,” citing return-to-office, AI and technology, and globalization as drivers.

• Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan, raised concerns about the lower tax rate. CFO do Lago clarified, “The lower effective tax rate in the fourth quarter can be explained by… a nonrecurring one-off event” related to deferred tax assets and technology investment tax breaks.

• Mario Pierry, BofA, questioned provision expenses and asset quality. CFO do Lago emphasized that increased provisions were “entirely attributed to growth, not to any type of asset quality deterioration.”

• Gustavo Schroden, Citi, asked about secured loan appetite and client mix. CFO do Lago described a strategic focus on public payroll loans and noted rapid growth in the “super core” segment (customers earning BRL 5,000 to BRL 12,000), which grew at about 100% in 2025.

• Neha Agarwala, HSBC, inquired about private payroll loans and cannibalization risk. CFO do Lago responded, “We have not yet seen any evidence that any of those 2 risks… are materializing within our customer base.”

• Daer Labarta, Goldman Sachs, asked about global expansion investments and OpEx growth. Velez-Osomo replied that U.S. investments are “mostly on team building and product. It’s de minimis.” CFO do Lago attributed Q4 OpEx increases primarily to seasonality in marketing, return-to-office provisions, and technology tax breaks.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts expressed cautious optimism but probed on AI disruption, loan growth drivers, margin pressures, tax rates, and risk of asset quality deterioration, often seeking clarity on nonrecurring items and sustainability of improvements.
• Management maintained a confident and proactive tone, frequently emphasizing discipline and strategic investment, while acknowledging near-term cost pressures and regulatory headwinds. Phrases like “we are taking it very seriously” and “we will not shy away” were used, reflecting both caution and conviction.
• Compared to the previous quarter, both analysts and management focused more on global expansion, AI impact, and the implications of regulatory and cost changes. Management’s tone remained confident but more explicit about near-term investment pressures, while analysts were more probing on the sustainability of growth and new risks.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Customer growth and ARPAC acceleration continued quarter-over-quarter, with ARPAC rising from $13+ to $15. Net income increased from $783 million to $895 million and ROE from 31% to a record 33%.
• The efficiency ratio improved significantly, dropping below 20% from 27.7% previously, though management warned of short-term upward pressure due to new investments.
• Strategic priorities shifted toward global expansion and AI, with the U.S. banking license process and AI model deployment taking center stage.
• Analysts’ questions evolved from regional growth and asset quality to global ambitions, near-term cost headwinds, and the readiness for AI-driven transformation.
• Management’s confidence was consistent, but communication around one-off items and cost investments became more detailed.

Risks and Concerns

• Management cited upward pressure on the efficiency ratio in 2026 due to investments in global expansion, AI, and return-to-office costs.
• Regulatory changes negatively impacted FGTS loan originations, though offset by public payroll loan growth.
• A one-off $25 million Prosofipo regulatory levy in Mexico and $22 million in return-to-office provisions affected the quarter.
• Analysts highlighted potential risks related to AI disruption, cannibalization from private payroll loans, and asset quality as secured lending grows.

Final Takeaway

Nu Holdings ended 2025 with record financial performance, highlighted by robust customer growth, higher ARPAC, and strong profitability, while laying groundwork for a pivotal 2026 focused on global expansion, AI integration, and disciplined capital allocation. Management signaled deliberate short-term investment in talent, technology, and international initiatives, with confidence that these moves will reinforce the company’s leadership, drive future returns, and ensure resilience against regulatory and competitive pressures.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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Shares were +0.36% to $16.71 post-market on Wednesday after the results announcement, but fell 2.22% to $16.28 later on.

Fourth-quarter revenue came at $4.86B, up 45% from the prior year and surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.55B.

“Strong engagement and higher monetization drove record quarterly revenues of $4.9 billion. This performance, combined with operating leverage and disciplined risk management, resulted in an all-time high net income of $895 million and an ROE of 33%,” said Nubank CEO David Vélez.

“As we enter 2026, we remain fully focused on winning in Latin America, while building the capabilities that will allow Nubank to evolve into a global digital banking platform over time,” added Vélez.

The São Paulo-based digital banking platform said it added 4M customers during the quarter, reaching a total of 131M globally in 2025. The figure represents a 15% year-over-year increase.

The company said it views 2026 as an inflection year, focusing on its core markets while building capabilities to evolve into a global digital banking platform.

The earnings conference call is scheduled for today at 5:00 PM ET.

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The company applied in September for the national bank charter, seeking to operate under a comprehensive federal framework and facilitate the launch of deposit accounts, credit cards, lending and digital asset custody.

With the approval, Nu (NU) is now in the bank organization phase, in which Nu satisfies certain OCC conditions alongside pending required approvals from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve. During this phase, the company will focus on fully capitalizing the institution within 12 months and opening the bank within 18 months.

“This approval isn’t just an expansion of our operation; it’s an opportunity to prove our thesis that a digital-first, customer-centric model is the future of financial services globally,” Nu Holdings (NU) Founder and CEO David Vélez said in a statement. “While we remain fully focused on our core markets in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, this step allows us to build the next generation of banking in the United States,” he added.

The new Nubank, N.A., unit will be led by N (NU) Co-Founder Cristina Junqueira, who has relocated to the U.S. Roberto Campos Neto, former president of the Central Bank of Brazil, will serve as chairman of the board.

NU shares slipped 0.8% in midafternoon trading.

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The company said the announcement will have no impact on clients, and all operations shall proceed normally.

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