Management View

• CEO Subodh Kulkarni described 2025 as “a year of technical validation and disciplined execution,” highlighting advances in fidelity, scale, and architecture. Kulkarni emphasized, “Our focus remains reaching true commercially meaningful quantum advantage, not headline milestones.” He reported a 2-qubit gate fidelity of up to 99.9% at a 28-nanosecond gate speed on a ProDrive platform, achieved via the proprietary Adiabatic CZ scheme. Median 2-qubit gate fidelities were reported as 99.7% for the 9-qubit system, 99.6% for the 36-qubit system, and 99% on the 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system.
• The company deployed multiple systems to the cloud, including an 84-qubit monolithic chip system and a 36-qubit chiplet system. Kulkarni noted, “We demonstrated that chiplet timing works in practice. That matters because scaling to thousands of qubits on a single die is not realistic. Chiplets are how we believe quantum systems will scale in the real world.”
• Key commercial progress included an $8.4 million order from India’s C-DAC for a 108-qubit on-premises quantum computer, scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026, and $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems. Kulkarni also announced a Novera QPU sale to a Japanese research organization, with delivery set for April 2026, marking Rigetti’s first QPU in Japan.
• Strategic partnerships were highlighted, including collaborations with Riverlane for quantum error correction, NVIDIA for NVQLink integration, and QphoX for optical readout research. Kulkarni described the company’s open modular architecture as a differentiator.
• CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen stated, “For the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue was $1.9 million, compared to $2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.” He added, “Gross margins for the fourth quarter were 35% compared to 44% in Q4 of last year.” Bertelsen also shared, “Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $23.2 million compared to $19.5 million in the same period last year.”

Outlook

• Kulkarni stated, “Looking ahead, 2026 is about execution and scaling. Our near-term priority is completing deployment of the 108-qubit system at 99.5% median 2-qubit gate fidelity, which we expect around the end of March.” He further outlined, “Our focus is to deploy a system with more than 150-qubits with an anticipated 99.7% median 2-qubit gate fidelity around end of December 2026.” For 2027, the company targets “a system of more than 1,000 qubits with an anticipated 99.8% median 2-qubit gate fidelity by or around the end of 2027.”
• Bertelsen indicated revenue recognition for the $5.7 million Novera sales will be split between the first and second quarters of 2026, and the $8.4 million C-DAC order will be recognized in the second half of 2026.

Financial Results

• Revenue for Q4 2025 was $1.9 million, down from $2.3 million in Q4 2024. Gross margin for the quarter was 35%, compared to 44% the prior year. Operating expenses rose to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, with stock-based compensation at $5.6 million versus $3.4 million last year.
• Operating loss was $22.6 million compared to $18.5 million in Q4 2024. Non-GAAP net loss was $11.3 million or $0.03 per share, compared to $14 million or $0.06 per share in the prior year quarter. The company ended the year with approximately $590 million in cash and no debt.

Q&A

• Kevin Garrigan, Jefferies: Asked about gating items for delivering the 108-qubit system and foundry capacity. Kulkarni explained the system is on track for deployment by the end of March and clarified, “We do offer Fab-1 as a foundry to select customers, specifically the DOE, DoD and The U.K. National Government.”
• Troy Jensen, Cantor Fitzgerald: Sought clarification on fidelity metrics and gate speed progress. Kulkarni stated, “When we deploy this 108-qubit systems towards the end of March, our 1-qubit gate fidelity will continue to be at 99.9%, and our 2-qubit gate fidelity, the median number is expected to be about 99.5%.”
• Quinn Bolton, Needham: Inquired about gross margin expectations for the Novera and C-DAC orders. Bertelsen declined to provide specifics for competitive reasons but noted, “Our typical Novera systems without the dilution refrigeration have very high margins.”
• David Williams: Asked about the NVIDIA partnership and M&A landscape. Kulkarni highlighted the hybrid computing vision and said, “We would certainly be open to M&A if it helps accelerate our roadmap,” but indicated the current plan is primarily organic.
• Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan, TD Cowen: Questioned fab expansion and government funding. Kulkarni emphasized the existing fab’s sufficiency “for the next 3 years” and described ongoing government funding initiatives in the U.S., U.K., and India.
• Craig Ellis, B. Riley: Sought details on Novera sales in Japan and pipeline. Kulkarni confirmed the QPU sale to a Japanese organization and growing international demand for on-premises systems. Bertelsen noted, “The Novera to the Japanese organization, we expect that to ship in April and to rev rec in Q2.”
• Tyler Perry Anderson, Craig-Hallum: Asked about the Japanese customer’s setup and the Riverlane partnership. Kulkarni described the Novera as “a perfect solution to get your researchers familiar with quantum computing” and detailed Riverlane’s role in error correction integration.
• John McPeake, Rosenblatt: Asked about the timeline for the 150-plus and 1,000-plus qubit systems. Kulkarni reiterated, “Absolutely, 150 plus around the end of this year and more than 1,000 around the end of next year. That’s the plan.”
• Brian Kinstlinger, Alliance Global Partners: Sought insights into the evaluation process in Japan and India. Kulkarni cited “our open modular approach and our chiplet approach” as key differentiators.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts focused on technical milestones, commercial orders, and strategic direction, with a neutral to slightly positive tone. Questions highlighted confidence in the technical roadmap but probed for details on execution and differentiation.
• Management maintained a confident and disciplined tone in prepared remarks, emphasizing “credible long-term progress.” In Q&A, responses were factual and assertive, especially regarding technical differentiation and strategic partnerships. Kulkarni frequently reiterated confidence in the company’s roadmap and technological leadership.
• Compared to the previous quarter, analyst tone shifted to more granular technical and commercial queries, while management’s confidence level appeared steady, with increased emphasis on execution milestones and competitive positioning.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Guidance language shifted from projecting milestones to reporting achieved technical progress and specifying deployment timelines. The company now reports two-qubit and one-qubit fidelities to clarify industry comparisons.
• Strategic focus advanced from planning for chiplet-based systems to demonstrating practical deployments and addressing scale-related technical challenges.
• Analysts’ questions evolved from general technology roadmap and CapEx planning to detailed inquiries about product readiness, customer pipeline, and revenue recognition.
• Key metrics such as cash position and operating loss were updated. Management’s tone remained confident, stressing organic execution and the sufficiency of the current fab for the near term.

Risks and Concerns

• Revenue variability was acknowledged as “expected and does not change how we manage the business or allocate capital,” attributed to system delivery timing and government contract activity.
• Gross margin declines were linked to contract mix, with lower-margin strategic contracts supporting system validation and ecosystem integration.
• Ongoing investments and rising operating expenses were tied to R&D and system integration.
• Management stated that quarterly results will continue to “reflect the early stage nature of the market.”
• Analyst concerns included potential fab expansion and the pace of government funding, both addressed by management’s emphasis on existing capacity and ongoing funding initiatives.

Final Takeaway

Rigetti management described the past year as one of disciplined technical progress, with new milestones in qubit fidelity and chiplet-based architecture supporting confidence in scaling quantum systems. Key orders from India and Japan, along with continued government and research institution demand, reinforce the commercial strategy. The company reiterated a focus on organic growth, strong partnerships, and a roadmap that aims for a 1,000-plus qubit system by the end of 2027, supported by a robust cash position and strategic clarity around technical and operational risks.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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Jefferies analyst Kevin Garrigan said that while revenue was a “touch light” compared to what Wall Street was expecting, Rigetti’s management pointed to a “sharp” step-up in the coming quarter, based on Novera system sales.

“We’re encouraged by the early system-sales cadence building into 2026, including two Novera on‑prem deliveries in 1H26, a Novera QPU sale to a Japanese research organization (shipping in April and rev‑rec in Q2), and the $8.4M 108‑qubit C‑DAC system slated for 2H26,” Garrigan wrote in a note to clients. “On the technology side, the story continues to develop, with RGTI showing meaningful progress in both speed and error rates, including strong two‑qubit fidelity results using its proprietary adiabatic CZ scheme at 28ns, alongside continued improvements across the QPU portfolio. Importantly, management reiterated its timeline to deploy the 108‑qubit system by the end of March, and we view that delivery as the near-term tell that underwrites the next legs of the roadmap (>150 qubits by end‑2026 and >1,000 qubits by end‑2027).”

Garrigan reiterated his Hold rating on Rigetti and lowered his price target to $20 from $30.

Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton also lowered his price target on Rigetti following the results, cutting it to $31 from $51, due to multiple compression in the sector.

Nonetheless, Bolton took some confidence from management’s upbeat tone for the rest of 2026.

“In September 2025, the company received ~$5.7MM for two of its 9-qubit Novera QPU systems. Rigetti expects to recognize slightly less than half of the total amount in 1Q26, with the remainder in 2Q26,” Bolton explained. “Management noted these two system sales will carry lower GM as a dilution fridge is included in the delivery. Revenue from the 9-qubit Novera QPU sale to the Japan-based organization is expected to be recognized in 2Q26. Lastly, revenue from the Cepheus-1-108Q system sale to C-DAC is expected to be recognized in 2H26. As such, we now model FY26 revenue of $21.0MM (vs. our prior estimate of $18.5MM).”

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Here are some of Thursday’s biggest stock movers:

Biggest stock gainers

• Veeva Systems (VEEV) +12% – Shares advanced after the company’s Q4 financial results beat on both lines and issued strong FY2027 revenue and profit guidance. The cloud solutions provider for the life sciences industry sees revenue in FY2027 of $3.585B-$3.6B, above the consensus of $3.56B. Non-GAAP EPS is projected at $8.85, surpassing the consensus of $8.60.
• Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) +8% – Shares surged after posting better-than-expected top- and bottom-line results and narrowing its FY2026 outlook. The restaurant chain now expects FY2026 revenue of $3.24B–$3.27B vs. the prior $3.2B–$3.3B range, with the new midpoint of $3.255B slightly above the $3.25B consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $85M–$100M compared with the earlier $70M–$110M outlook, while commodity inflation is expected at 2%–2.5% vs. the prior 2.5%–3.5%. The company also lowered its planned investment to $105M–$115M from the earlier $110M–$125M range.
• Broadcom (AVGO) +6% – Shares rose after the semiconductor and software giant reported FQ1 results and guidance that topped Wall Street estimates. The company expects FQ2 revenue of about $22B with adjusted EBITDA of roughly 68%, well above the $20.5B consensus. Broadcom highlighted strong momentum in AI semiconductor solutions, with Q1 AI revenue surging 106% Y/Y to $8.4B, driven by demand for custom AI accelerators and networking products, and projected AI semiconductor revenue to reach $10.7B in Q2.

Biggest stock losers

• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) -4% – Shares dipped after the quantum computing firm reported Q4 results that missed Wall Street estimates. Despite the miss, CEO Subodh Kulkarni said the company remains focused on executing its roadmap, including deploying its 108-qubit system with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity and advancing toward larger-scale systems to achieve quantum advantage. Rigetti also expects significant Y/Y revenue growth in Q1, supported by shipments tied to previously announced $5.7M Novera on-premises system purchase orders.

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Wall Street expects the company to post a loss of $0.03 per share on a revenue of $2.33M, implying a rise of around 2.6% year over year.

During the quarter, Rigetti Computing reported third-quarter results that saw it beat earnings expectations while missing on revenue. Management also outlined a technology roadmap targeting a 1,000-plus qubit system by 2027 and highlighted progress on global partnerships.

Separately, it also announced support for NVIDIA’s NVQLink quantum-AI platform, demonstrating collaboration at NVIDIA’s GTC event, as quantum stocks saw bouts of volatility tied to government-related headlines and analyst rating actions.

According to Alpha’s Quant Rating system, RGTI is rated Hold with an overall score of 2.79 out of 5, reflecting grades of B both in terms of growth and momentum, but a D- in profitability.

An analyst at Seeking Alpha said Rigetti faces near-term headwinds as “growth stocks are pressured” and after it “delayed the launch of one of its 108-qubit quantum systems,” adding that there has been “no official update” on potential benefits from the U.S. DoE grant and no indication yet on DARPA qualification.

At the same time, they highlighted tailwinds, including a strong balance sheet with “$450M cash and low debt,” and described the $8.4M India purchase order as a “silver lining” that could support a revenue inflection if most of the backlog is recognized in CY26.

Over the past year, RGTI has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.

Shares have fallen about 10% over the past month and are down roughly 24.2% so far this year.

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Jefferies kept its Buy rating on IonQ but lowered the price target on the stock to $90 from $100.

“Strong December Q and outlook reinforces IonQ’s ability to scale across multiple growth vectors, backed by a semiconductor-leveraged roadmap and clear operating momentum. The 256‑qubit system remains on track for 4Q26, commercial demand continues to broaden, and, importantly, the core business saw +80% Y/Y growth in FY25, helping settle the organic vs. inorganic debate. We continue to view the setup for IONQ shares favorably,” said analysts led by Kevin Garrigan.

The analysts noted that IonQ delivered a revenue beat-and-raise quarter, and they view the company as well-positioned to scale across multiple growth vectors, including hardware/system sales, quantum networking/security deployments, and quantum sensing.

Garrigan and his team continue to view the setup for IonQ’s shares as attractive as the company pairs a semiconductor-leveraged roadmap with diversified commercial demand across compute, networking/security, and sensing.

J.P. Morgan maintained its Neutral rating but lowered IonQ’s price target to $42 from $47.

Analysts led by Peter Peng said that IonQ’s solid 2026 outlook reflects momentum across the product portfolio and strong customer traction, while adding that the technology roadmap remains on track.

“IonQ reported much better-than-expected December quarter results, reflecting strength across its quantum computing, networking, sensing, and security portfolio. For the March quarter, the team guided sales to $49.5M, well above consensus, on continued strong momentum across its product portfolio. Given robust customer demand and a $370M remaining performance obligation (RPO) team guided 2026 revenues to $235M (up 81% Y/Y), exceeding consensus expectations of $200.8M,” said Peng and his team.

Related stocks: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) each jumped about 8%, while Quantum Computing (QUBT) and Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) each rose around 4% on Thursday.

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For the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, adjusted net loss per share was $0.09 compared to net loss per share of $0.08 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, revenue grew 19% year-over-year to $2.8M. Both top and bottom line numbers missed analysts’ estimates.

“Our 2025 results mark one of the most successful and transformative years in D-Wave’s history, with meaningful growth across every key business metric — revenue, Bookings, technical milestones, and scientific breakthroughs,” said D-Wave’s CEO Alan Baratz.

The company noted that it closed Bookings of $13.4M for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, up 471% from the immediately preceding third quarter bookings of $2.4M. The Booking includes the €10M agreement with Swiss Quantum Technology signed in October 2025.

D-Wave noted that it ended 2025 with the highest liquidity position in its history at over $884M.

“We are entering 2026 with exceptional momentum: generating over $30 million in Bookings in January alone, expanding our market leadership through the acquisition of gate-model quantum computing company Quantum Circuits, Inc., and securing an eight-figure enterprise QCaaS agreement that underscores growing customer confidence in our technology’s power to transform enterprise operations. 2026 is shaping up to be a defining year for D-Wave,” said Baratz.

Related stocks: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) jumped about 4%, while Quantum Computing (QUBT) and Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) each rose around 3% premarket on Thursday.

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The screen focuses on semiconductor companies within the small- and mid-cap range, filtering for names that combine negative quantitative ratings with elevated sales-based valuations.

The price-to-sales (P/S) multiple is a valuation metric that compares a company’s stock price to its revenue per share. It’s calculated by dividing a company’s market capitalization by its total revenue, or alternatively, by dividing its stock price by its revenue per share.

The list highlights semiconductor stocks that pair negative quantitative signals with P/S multiples relative to peers.

At the top are stocks with higher price-to-sales ratios, which may warrant caution given their unfavorable Quant Ratings.

The list is topped by Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI), which has the highest price-to-sales multiple among the screened small- and mid-cap semiconductor names with a Strong Sell Quant Rating. Universal Display Corporation (OLED) and Impinj, Inc. (PI) follow, with Datavault AI Inc. (DVLT) and CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) rounding out the rest of the top five, all combining unfavorable quantitative scores with relatively high sales-based valuations.

Other notable names on the list, such as indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI) and Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL), also feature on this screen alongside their Sell or Strong Sell Quant Ratings.

Here is the list:

1. Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI), Quant Rating: Strong Sell 1.30, price-to-sales (P/S) multiple: 567.63x

2. Universal Display Corporation (OLED), Quant Rating: Sell 1.63, price-to-sales (P/S) multiple: 9.42x

3. Impinj, Inc. (PI), Quant Rating: Strong Sell 1.19, price-to-sales (P/S) multiple: 8.95x

4. Datavault AI Inc. (DVLT), Quant Rating: Strong Sell 1.26, price-to-sales (P/S) multiple: 6.93x

5. CEVA, Inc. (CEVA), Quant Rating: Sell 1.57, price-to-sales (P/S) multiple: 4.99x

6. indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI), Quant Rating: Sell 1.53, price-to-sales (P/S) multiple: 3.28x

7. Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL), Quant Rating: Strong Sell 1.42, price-to-sales (P/S) multiple: 0.90x

Semiconductor ETFs: (SMH), (SOXX), (SOXL), (FTXL), (XSD), (USD), (PSI), and (SEMI)

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The pullback adds to a tough start to the year, with most names in the space now down double digits year-to-date. Elevated bearish positioning across several names continues to frame the backdrop.

Here’s how key quantum computing stocks rank by short interest as of the January 30 settlement:

• Quantum Computing (QUBT) -20.18% YTD | Short interest: 21.89%
• IonQ (IONQ) -30.24% YTD | Short interest: 20.80%
• SEALSQ (LAES) +1.6% YTD | Short interest: 13.81%
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) -32.3% YTD | Short interest: 13.10%
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) -28.03% YTD | Short interest: 12.78%
• Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) +1.59% YTD | Short interest: 5.87%

Quantum computing ETF: Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM)

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