Q4 net profit rose to C$1.48B (~US$1.08B), or C$1.23/share, from C$818M, or C$0.65/share, in the year-earlier quarter, but revenues fell 1.7% Y/Y to C$12.3B.

Q4 adjusted operating earnings, which the company says better reflects its underlying performance by stripping out one-time items, fell to C$1.33B, or C$1.10/share, from C$1.57B, or $1.25/share, a year ago but came in ahead of the C$1.04/share analyst consensus estimate provided by FactSet.

Suncor (SU) said it produced 909K bbl/day in Q4, up from 875K bbl/day in the prior-year quarter, while refining throughput rose by 18K bbl/day to 504K bbl/day.

The company also said it aims to buy back C$3.3B of its shares in 2026, and expects 100% of excess funds will be returned to shareholders.

Suncor (SU) will present the market this spring with options it is considering for securing long-term bitumen supply, CEO Rich Kruger said on the company’s earnings conference call, according to Reuters.

The company has spent years exploring options to sustain the supply of oil sands crude to its Base Plant upgrading facilities, which have a production capacity of 350K bbl/day, but the Base Plant mine is expected to be largely depleted by the mid-2030s.

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For the week, Nasdaq (COMP:IND) and Dow (DJI) rose over 2% and 1.8%, respectively.

Wall Street had a slew of upgrades and downgrades from analysts. Here are some of the major calls for the week:

Bernstein downgrades Amgen, says 2026 could be ‘waiting year’

Bernstein has downgraded Amgen (AMGN) to Market Perform from Outperform, arguing that 2026 could be a “waiting year” for the pharma giant and its stock will remain within 15% of its $335 per share target for the rest of the year.

While Amgen’s obesity candidate MariTide can generate above-consensus expectations, analyst Courtney Breen argued that any upside revisions to the once-monthly drug are unlikely until its first Phase 3 trial generates data, potentially in Q1 2027.

Breen also cited competitive pressure on Amgen’s cholesterol drug, Repatha, from Merck’s (MRK) oral PCSK9 inhibitor, Enlicitide, which is expected to launch in H2.

JPM upgrades Chevron, Suncor; ConocoPhillips, Cenovus receives cut

Chevron (CVX) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with a $176 PT at J.P. Morgan, based on the view that the company is in an attractive phase of its investment cycle following the completion of the Hess merger, while structural cost reduction efforts are on track to deliver $3B-$4B in annual run-rate savings by 2026.

Analyst Arun Jayaram moved ConocoPhillips (COP) to Neutral from Overweight with a $98 PT, saying the stock trades at premium FCF/EV yields to Big Oil peers in 2026-27. Meanwhile, he upgraded Suncor Energy (SU) to Overweight from Neutral with a C$75 PT, citing “remarkable” execution progress under the current management team.

The brokerage also lowered Cenovus Energy (CVE) to Neutral from Overweight with a C425 price target on the stock, saying the company has hit its stride from an execution standpoint both upstream and downstream.

JPMorgan gives bullish rating to Procter & Gamble

Procter & Gamble (PG) was upgraded by JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral and assigned a price target of $165 on the stock.

Analyst Andrea Teixeira believes the company is poised to accelerate organic sales growth, improve margin rates in the medium term, and see re-rating back to historical valuation multiples.

“We believe there is upside to consensus longer term as categories are recovering growth in the U.S. We believe PG will regain market share given its strong brand equity, marketing capabilities, and supply chain excellence/resilience positively in the current operating environment,” wrote Texeira.

Netflix in focus after quarterly report

Analysts, in general, found Netflix’s (NFLX) quarterly results as somewhat “mixed” and “underwhelming”. However, they said that the streaming giant is poised for long-term growth and that the current weakness ‘a buying opportunity’ for investors.

Even though Wedbush and Jefferies made no change in their ratings and PT, Needham, Morgan Stanley and Canaccord Genuity cut price target for the stock.

Needham maintained Buy rating and views the strong content slate the platform has for 2026, its focus on international growth and diversification into complementary businesses as reasons for the bullish rating. The brokerage lowered PT by $30 to $120.

Similarly, Morgan Stanley continued to stay bullish for its ability to drive adj. EPS growth over 20% annually through 2028E as it continues to scale the world’s largest streaming business. It cut PT by $10 to $110. Canaccord Genuity cut PT by $27.50 to $125.

Deutsche Bank joins bull camp on Applied Materials

Deutsche Bank became the latest Wall Street firm to upgrade Applied Materials (AMAT) as it hiked the semiconductor equipment maker to Buy from Neutral and put a $390 price target on the stock.

Analyst Melissa Weathers said the upgrade reflects a “much more constructive [wafer fab equipment] environment entering 2026 and 2027.” She also noted that memory sellers are “accelerating” the construction and expansion of new DRAM fabs, which should drive DRAM wafer fab equipment spending higher in the medium term.

Susquehanna also upgraded British semiconductor firm Arm (ARM) to Positive from Neutral and upped its PT to $150, as it has “increased confidence” it can scale its data center and networking revenue.

Jefferies upgraded Ramaco Resources (METC) to Buy from Hold with a $30 price target, saying the risk to consensus met coal price forecasts is clearly to the upside while ongoing and escalating geopolitical risks related to critical minerals are positive for the stock.

Stifel upgraded Datadog (DDOG), citing an “attractive” risk-reward profile. Analyst Brad Reback, who raised his rating to Buy from Hold, but cut his price target to $160 from $205, added that the company is seeing an acceleration in its core business, citing recent commentary from Datadog management at an investor conference.

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Suncor (SU) said the worker was operating a piece of heavy equipment on January 13 when it sank into the muskeg, a type of watery bog; the person has still not been found, and the company said the incident may have resulted from a medical event.

The fatality marks the first at a Suncor (SU) site since 2022, when a spate of incidents prompted calls for a major shakeup of the company, with activist Elliott Investment Management leading the campaign that resulted in then-CEO Mark Little stepping down; he was replaced by former Imperial Oil head Rich Kruger, who remains in charge at Suncor.

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Chevron (CVX) is in exclusive negotiations with a customer for a power generation facility that will support a data center, which will leverage the company’s large domestic production base of more than 3 Bcf/day; while the company has not secured a firm commitment, it expects to reach a final investment decision in H1 2026 and deliver first power by 2027-28, and JPM’s Arun Jayaram estimated the project could generate mid-teens unlevered returns on capital.

Jayaram moved ConocoPhillips (COP) to Neutral from Overweight with a $98 PT, saying the stock trades at premium FCF/EV yields to Big Oil peers in 2026-27, while still viewing the company as a long-term core holding given its long-term core E&P holding due to its portfolio strength, inventory durability, and shareholder friendly cash return framework.

Among Canadian firms, Jayaram upgraded Suncor Energy (SU) to Overweight from Neutral with a C$75 PT, citing “remarkable” execution progress under the current management team, driven by outstanding results in the field that have consistently exceeded guidance, and the strength of its balance sheet that is supporting the return of 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders; the company kept up its progress in 2025 with record upstream production of 860K bbl/day and refining throughput of 480K boe/day.

Suncor (SU) has benefited from high diesel crack spreads and improved margins, running refineries at full capacity and exporting products globally, the analyst noted.

Finally, Jayaram lowered Cenovus Energy (CVE) to Neutral from Overweight with a C425 PT, saying the company has hit its stride from an execution standpoint both upstream and downstream, but relative valuation is no longer as compelling at updated strip pricing, which includes the recent widening in WCS differentials to ~$14/bbl in 2026-27.

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Morgan Stanley analysts noted Venezuela’s oil is predominantly heavy sour crude, similar in quality to Western Canadian Select, and while the near-term supply impact from the aggressive U.S. policy in Venezuela appears limited, the bank suggests an easing of sanctions on the country could add to an already very oversupplied oil market.

Among potentially relevant stocks, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) closed -6.1%, Cenovus Energy (CVE) -5%, Enbridge (ENB) -3.2%, Baytex Energy (BTE) -3%, Suncor Energy (SU) -1.8%, Imperial Oil (IMO) -1.5%, Pembina Pipeline (PBA) -1.3%, TC Pipelines (TRP) -0.8%.

Morgan Stanley pointed to Cenovus (CVE) and Imperial Oil (IMO) as most exposed to changes in the WCS-WTI spread, while Suncor (SU) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) are more insulated.

However, it would be difficult for the U.S. to displace the use of Canadian crude in the short term, Servus Credit Union chief economist Charles St. Arnaud said, as “most of Canada’s oil is used by refineries in the U.S. Midwest, accounting for ~69% of total Canadian oil exports… This usage will be difficult to replace, as all the major oil pipelines have oil flowing from the Midwest towards the Gulf Coast.”

Meanwhile, an eventual increase in Venezuelan oil production would provide a significant boost for U.S. refiners, since much of their Gulf Coast refining capacity is designed for heavy crude like the oil in Venezuela, Raymond James analysts said, with Valero (VLO) having the most capacity in the U.S. Gulf, followed by Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Phillips 66 (PSX); the three stocks finished +9.2%, +5.9% and +7.2%, respectively.

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The Canadian energy company also increased share repurchases to $275 million per month, projecting C$3.3 billion in 2026.

The company anticipates that annual refining utilization will average between 99% and 102%, reflecting continued improved performance across the company’s entire downstream portfolio.

These outlooks reflect planned turnaround and maintenance activities, including a major turnaround at Firebag and scheduled maintenance at Base Plant, Syncrude, and Fort Hills, Suncor Energy (SU) said in a statement.

Downstream utilization incorporates planned turnarounds at all four of the company’s refineries.

In terms of the 2026 capital program, total capex is expected to be $5.7 billion at the midpoint, achieving the target set at the 2024 Investor Day.

Major economic investments planned or continuing in 2026 include in situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit development, and the ongoing execution of the Petro-Canada retail network optimization plan.

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“We’ve capitulated and changed our tune for the beat-and-raise juggernaut,” Barth wrote, following a slew of near-term and longer-term estimate revisions for the company.

Barth said Suncor’s (SU) valuation looks increasingly compelling, with revised estimates having the shares trading at a greater than 10% sustaining free cash flow yield, the second highest in the company’s peer group, while a double-digit sustaining free cash flow yield on a ~US$60/bbl price deck looks reasonably attractive given high 2P RLI, low and declining sustaining FCF breakevens, and fading concerns around base mine end-of-life.

Upstream momentum continues, Barth said, with Suncor (SU) posting a monster quarter as Oil Sands AFFO came in well above estimates on both stronger than expected production and lower unit operating expense; the company revised FY 2025 upstream production guidance to 845,000-855,000, and unit opex also is trending to come in at-or-below the low end of previous guidance, which the analyst thinks is a function of both specific efficiencies and fixed-cost absorption.

Downstream also racked up a record operational quarter, the analyst said, with refining utilization breaking a record at 106% of nameplate capacity, also with better than expected unit operating expense on the back of higher volume.

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