The financial firm also increased its price target to $160 from $125.

Twilio shares were up 3.5% by noon trading on Monday.

“In the current wake of software disruption fears, TWLO offers a refreshing position: 1) infrastructure software, built on physical telephony, with scale & reliability that is defensible to new entrants (akin to hyperscalers); 2) consumption pricing, with virtually no risk of secular seat compression or stack displacement from AI; and 3) an effective return to its roots to a low-touch GTM model with high CAC efficiencies,” said T.D. Cowen analysts, led by Derrick Wood, in a Monday investor report.

T.D. Cowen highlighted that the rapid rise of AI agents should drive up consumption on Twilio’s platform across messaging, voice, email, and other channels.

“While TWLO has seen strong growth from Voice AI start-ups (revs up >60% in 4Q), enterprises (its biggest cohort) have lagged,” Wood noted. “Our industry checks, however, suggest enterprises are progressing through experimentation phases & that 2H26 could be the time when adoption starts to inflect, which would be a bigger force in TWLO’s Voice growth.”

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Here are the four stocks to watch on the day:

Moderna (MRNA) rose 0.2% in premarket trading after

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RBC Capital kept its Underperform rating and $100 price target on Twilio — which provides a cloud-based customer engagement platform — noting that 2026 guidance “underwhelms.”

Analysts led by Rishi Jaluria said Twilio delivered solid fourth quarter results with revenue (+14% year-over-year/+12% organic), non-GAAP operating margin (18.7%), non-GAAP EPS ($1.33), and free cash flow, or FCF, ($256.1M) all above consensus.

“While we’re pleased to see continued traction with Voice AI and software add-ons, we remain cautious around long-term margin profiles and the potential for accelerating organic topline growth. Last, we think a sub-10% organic growth outlook is likely not enough to get investors excited given prevailing software sentiment,” Jaluria and his team.

Wells Fargo maintained its Overweight rating and $147 price target on the stock.

“TWLO printed a solid 4Q, underpinned by reaccels in Voice revenue and gross profit dollar growth. We believe investors likely continue to own the name here as they feel comfortable in a reasonably priced consumption trade with AI defensiveness,” said analysts led by Ryan MacWilliams.

The analysts noted that Twilio posted an acceleration in gross profit dollar growth in the fourth quarter (despite higher SMS mix) and provided a more constructive initial outlook for 2026 versus past years.

MacWilliams and his team added that while some investors may have been looking for an organic revenue reacceleration, better self-serve/direct go-to-market, or GTM, performance driving strong net new business in the fourth quarter was a highlight.

“We believe investors can feel better on the setup for next year given a solid 1Q outlook and improved visibility on underlying trends,” the analysts added.

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For the period ending Dec. 31, Twilio said it earned an adjusted $1.33 per share as sales came in at $1.37B, up 14.3% year-over-year. Organic revenue growth was 12% during the period.

Analysts had expected the company to earn an adjusted $1.23 per share on $1.32B in revenue.

“2025 was one of the most balanced and successful years of execution in Twilio’s history and has fundamentally transformed our financial profile and innovation velocity,” said Khozema Shipchandler, CEO of Twilio, in a statement. “We accelerated revenue growth, expanded operating margins, and delivered significant growth in free cash flow. Importantly, our vision is resonating with customers and Twilio is quickly becoming a foundational infrastructure layer in the age of AI.”

For the first-quarter of fiscal 2026, Twilio expects sales to be between $1.335B and $1.345B, above the $1.29B estimate. Adjusted earnings are forecast to be between $1.21 and $1.26, compared to the consensus of $1.24 per share.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Twilio expects revenue growth to be between 11.5% and 12.5% year-over-year, including an organic growth rate of 8% to 9%. That translated to full-year sales between $5.65B and $5.7B, above the $5.47B estimate.

The company will host a conference call at 5 p.m. EST to discuss the results.

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Wall Street expects the company to post earnings per share of $1.23, implying a rise of 23% on a revenue of $1.32 billion, representing year-over-year growth of about 11%.

During the quarter, Twilio highlighted its focus on artificial intelligence and platform capabilities through a series of announcements. The company said it would participate in the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference, while also releasing a report pointing to rapid adoption of conversational AI alongside ongoing implementation challenges and perception gaps. It also introduced next-generation tools aimed at improving data reliability and access across its customer engagement platform, signaling continued investment in product enhancements.

According to Alpha’s Quant Rating system, TWLO is rated Hold with an overall score of 2.94 out of 5, reflecting an A- grade in terms of growth but has a C+ both in terms of valuation and revisions.

A Seeking Alpha analyst maintained a neutral stance on Twilio ahead of its results, citing strong operational performance but valuation concerns, noting that the company continues to deliver growth while “shares of the business are still lofty,” and adding that “unless the company can come out with something significant and unexpected that changes the picture materially for the better, I think that sticking to my guns is the right choice.”

Over the last two years, TWLO has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.

Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions and one downward, while revenue estimates have seen four upward revisions and two downward.

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Novo Nordisk (NVO) was up 2.1% in premarket trade as it launched its recently approved pill version of the blockbuster weight loss treatment, Wegovy, for cash-paying U.S. customers at $149 per month, weeks after its FDA approval in December.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock rose 1% before the opening bell as the firm was reportedly in talks to acquire Israeli cybersecurity startup Koi for about $400M. If the deal goes through, it would mark a swift and lucrative exit for Koi’s investors and founders. The company has raised $48M to date, mainly in a $38M Series A round last September.

Okta (OKTA) shares were up ~2% in premarket trade after the firm approved a share repurchase program to buy back up to $1 billion of its class A common stock. The company said it expects to fund the repurchases with existing cash balances and cash flow from operations.

Twilio (TWLO) stock fell 1.5% before the opening bell as it was downgraded by Piper Sandler on Monday as the investment firm cited concerns about valuation. In addition to the downgrade, analyst James Fish tweaked his price target to $148 from $145.

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Shares rose 0.9% in premarket trading.

“Twilio has remarkably revamped the business over the past several years, marked by material growth reacceleration, significant improvements in its margin profile, and showcasing greater capital discipline and shareholder friendliness,” BTIG analyst Nick Altmann wrote in a note to clients. “We believe shares have rightfully outperformed peers (+22% vs. +8% IGV YTD) on the heels of better execution and the winning software formula of growth reacceleration + margin expansion. However, we also believe TWLO’s best days are yet to come and see a compelling near-term and medium-term story.”

Altmann noted that the communication-platform-as-a-service market is large — around $16B this year — and is expected to “accelerate,” aided by voice, more companies building and embedding communications APIs in generative AI apps and the potential for Twilio to acquire other companies.

“Furthermore, while investor concerns linger around the winners of the application layer, TWLO is serving as the underlying communications layer for all participants,” Altmann added. “Simply put, regardless of how GenAI is monetized and by whom at the application layer (Build vs. Buy, SaaS vs. GenAI startups, B2B vs. B2C), TWLO is set to provide the necessary communications building blocks, ultimately creating an attractive growth opportunity both near- and medium-term.”

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