The slide comes amid broader market weakness as escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices fueled concerns about consumer spending and travel demand.

Shares have declined about 3.6% between March 4 and March 11, compared with a roughly 1.4% drop in the S&P 500 over the same period, while peer Mastercard (MA) has fallen around 4.2% during that stretch.

According to Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system, Visa is rated a Hold, with a score of 3.37 out of 5, receiving an A+ for profitability, but an F in terms of valuation.

However, on the Wall Street analysts are bullish, with 36 of 39 analysts rate the stock with a Buy or higher, and three recommending a Hold.

A Seeking Alpha analysis said both Visa and Mastercard continue to benefit from structural tailwinds including the global shift toward electronic payments, e-commerce growth and cross-border spending, even as broader economic slowdowns or weaker consumer activity could weigh on transaction volumes.

The note added that the companies operate highly scalable networks that profit from payment growth without taking on lending exposure, noting that “they collect a fee for facilitating the transaction, but they do not hold the credit risk. That risk remains on the balance sheet of the issuing bank.”

Shares have fallen around 5.6% in the past month and have slipped approximately 12% year-to-date.

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The two companies first introduced the stablecoin-backed cards in 2025. Now, through Bridge’s partnership with Lead Bank, those card transactions can be settled onchain with Visa (V). Bridge-enabled stablecoin-linked cards are now live in 18 countries, with planned expansion to more than 100 countries across Europe, Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East by the end of 2026.

Earlier this year, Lead Bank joined Visa’s (V) stablecoin settlement pilot. Bridge is also enabling the stablecoin infrastructure behind the bank. The pilot seeks to evaluate:

• How stablecoin settlement can enhance settlement optionality for issuers and program managers;
• Operational efficiency gains from on-chain reconciliation and faster fund movement; and
• The role of stablecoin infrastructure platforms – such as Bridge – in simplifying blockchain interactions for institutions.

Additionally, Visa (V) is evaluating potential support for Bridge-issued assets in future flows, with a focus on how these assets can complement Visa’s global network and introduce a new settlement pathway for partners, the company said.

“Expanding our work with Bridge gives us one more way to bring the speed, transparency, and programmability of stablecoins directly into the settlement process,” said Cuy Sheffield, head of crypto at Visa (V).

Still, Visa (V) stock dropped 1.2% in premarket trading.

Visa’s (V) and Mastercard’s (MA) stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 in the past year amid concerns that AI and stablecoins may make traditional payment rails obsolete.

Mastercard (MA) also announced a stablecoin-related partnership on Tuesday. The card payment network said SoFi Technologies’ (SOFI) fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin will support settlement across Mastercard’s network, including for SoFi Bank, N.A.

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Digital payments provider PayPay is targeting a valuation of as much as $14 billion in an IPO, according to the Reuters report on Friday. PayPay plans to list on the Nasdaq next month.

PayPay, SoftBank, Qatar Holdings, Visa and ADIA did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Reuters.

PayPay filed its preliminary prospectus for a U.S. IPO earlier this month. It expects to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol “PAYP”.

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Prisma provides credit, debit, and prepaid card issuer processing, while Newpay operates real-time payments services, the Banelco ATM network, and the bill payment platform PagoMisCuentas.

The merger is expected to help the San Francisco-based company accelerate the deployment of advanced technologies, such as tokenization, biometric authentication, intelligent risk tools, and agentic commerce solutions.

The transaction is expected to close in Visa’s fiscal second quarter of 2026.

“This acquisition is an important step for Visa in Argentina,” said Visa CEO Ryan McInerney.

“We see significant opportunities to expand digital payments adoption and modernize financial services, capabilities, and infrastructure across the country,” said Visa Argentina and Southern Cone’s group country manager, Gabriela Renaudo.

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Management View

• CEO Ryan McInerney highlighted “strong financial results with net revenue up 15% year-over-year to $10.9 billion and EPS up 15%. Payments volume grew 8% year-over-year in constant dollars to nearly $4 trillion and process transactions grew 9% year-over-year, totaling $69 billion, demonstrating resilient consumer spending.”
• McInerney detailed advancements across Visa’s technology stack, citing enhancements in “Tap to Pay, Visa Flex Credential and Tokens,” and noting that “Tap To Pay penetration has now crossed the 80% mark of all face-to-face transactions with the U.S. at nearly 70%.”
• The CEO described progress in tokenization: “We have more than 17.5 billion tokens globally, over 3x the number of physical cards… We continue to make progress on the tokenization of e-commerce transactions to our ultimate goal of fully replacing card-centric pan technology.”
• McInerney called out stablecoin initiatives, stating, “we added stablecoin card issuance in 9 additional countries in Q1 to surpass 50 countries worldwide,” and “total stablecoin settlement has reached an annualized run rate of $4.6 billion globally.”
• Commercial and money movement solutions revenue posted constant dollar growth of 20%, with Visa Direct transactions up 23%. Value-added services revenue grew 28%, now representing around half of the company’s overall revenue growth in the quarter.
• CFO Christopher Suh stated, “Fiscal first quarter net revenue was up 15% year-over-year with the outperformance largely driven by stronger-than-expected value-added services revenue, lower-than-expected incentives and stronger-than-expected commercial and money movement solutions revenue.”

Outlook

• Christopher Suh reported, “For the full year, we have no material changes in our expectations for our adjusted and nominal net revenue growth. We still expect our full year adjusted net revenue growth to be in the low double digits, reflecting an anticipated weaker volatility environment for the rest of the year that is offset by the Q1 outperformance and higher utilization of our products and services.”
• Suh indicated, “On the expense side, we have no material changes to our prior full year guidance and still expect adjusted operating expense growth to be in the low double digits for the year.”
• For Q2, Suh guided, “We expect Q2 adjusted net revenue growth in the low double digits… We expect adjusted operating expense growth in the mid-teens, about 1 point above Q1 adjusted operating expense growth.”

Financial Results

• First quarter net revenue increased 15% year-over-year to $10.9 billion.
• EPS for the quarter was $3.17, up 15% year-over-year.
• U.S. payment volume was up 7%; international payment volume was up 9% year-over-year in constant dollars.
• Cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe was up 11% year-over-year; travel-related cross-border volume grew 10%.
• Visa Direct transactions grew 23% to 3.7 billion transactions.
• Value-added services revenue reached $3.2 billion, up 28%.
• The company repurchased approximately $3.8 billion in stock and distributed $1.3 billion in dividends during the quarter.

Q&A

• Daniel Perlin, RBC: Asked about value-added services around major events. Ryan McInerney explained, “There is a ton of demand from our clients. And the great thing about this is not only are we helping our clients, not only are we generating revenue from these services, we’re deepening our partnerships with our clients. And so we get more renewals because of them, we get more business because of them.”
• Darrin Peller, Wolfe Research: Inquired about offsetting lower FX volatility and capital return. Christopher Suh responded, “Value-added services, in particular, we saw in Q1 really great performance, strong execution strong client demand… when we think about the full year expectations, those are the moving parts… But given the persistent low that we saw in Q1, if we extend that throughout the rest of the year, that does provide for more downside than our original expectation, but that is being offset by strong performance that we saw in Q1.”
• William Nance, Goldman Sachs: Asked about regulatory risks (CCCA). Ryan McInerney said, “In the case of CCCA specifically, we’ve talked extensively… it’s very harmful and it’s just simply not needed… there will be fewer credit card options. And by the way, weaker security protections, less innovation, all these things we explain why.”
• Adam Frisch, Evercore ISI: Asked about commercial growth and global spending trends. McInerney attributed performance to strategy: “We’ve been shipping great product. Our sales teams have been engaging with players all around the world, we’ve been winning.”
• Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW: Asked about sustaining 28% VAS growth. Suh said, “Q1 being 28%, that is above where we expected it to go in, but it’s also in line with the momentum that we’ve seen. We’ve seen growth in the 25%, 24%, mid-20s for some period of time. It’s really a reflection of… we’re executing against our strategy.”

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts’ tone was largely positive, with persistent interest in value-added services, commercial growth, and regulatory risk. Questions focused on growth sustainability and strategic opportunities.
• Management maintained a confident and slightly optimistic tone, emphasizing innovation and consistent demand. McInerney often cited strong execution and client partnerships. Suh acknowledged upside and downside factors but stressed confidence in the strategy. Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone was similarly confident but more focused on execution and competitive positioning.
• Direct quote supporting management’s confidence: “These results and our feedback from our clients give us confidence that our strategy is working, and we are investing in the right capabilities to position Visa and our clients and partners for the future.”

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Guidance remains consistent, with full year adjusted net revenue growth still expected in the low double digits, in line with the previous quarter’s outlook.
• Strategic focus has shifted toward scaling innovations in tokens, Flex Credentials, stablecoins, and agentic commerce, with more detailed updates on pilot programs and new partnerships than in Q4 2025.
• Value-added services accelerated from 25% growth last quarter to 28% in Q1 2026, now contributing around half of overall revenue growth.
• Analysts’ questions in both quarters centered on product innovation, regulatory risk, and revenue sustainability, but current quarter questions reflected more urgency regarding competitive threats and growth levers.
• Management’s confidence level and focus on execution remained high, with added emphasis on tangible results from innovation.

Risks and Concerns

• Management identified regulatory developments (CCCA) as a key risk, with McInerney stating, “it’s very harmful and it’s just simply not needed… there will be fewer credit card options. And by the way, weaker security protections, less innovation.”
• Suh highlighted currency volatility as a headwind: “On volatility, it has been much lower than we expected so far this year. And we are assuming that, that volatility continues at current levels for the rest of the year, implying a larger drag for the rest of the year than in Q1.”
• Analysts pressed on growth sustainability in value-added services and the potential impacts of regulation and competitive threats.

Final Takeaway

Visa’s first quarter of 2026 demonstrated strong revenue and EPS growth, supported by robust expansion in value-added services, commercial and money movement solutions, and technological innovation in tokens, stablecoins, and agentic commerce. Management maintains its outlook for low double-digit adjusted net revenue growth for the full year, with strategic investments in digital payment infrastructure and security positioning the company for continued resilience and leadership in a dynamic payments landscape.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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The credit card network giant repeated guidance for FY2026 EPS, net revenue, and operating expense growth, each in the low double digits.

For Q2, Visa (V) expects non-GAAP, adjusted constant-dollar basis, EPS growth in the high end of low double digits, net revenue growth in the low double digits, and operating expense growth in the mid-teens.

Fiscal Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.17, trailing the average analyst estimate of $3.14, rose from $2.98 in Q4 2025 and $2.75 in last year’s Q1.

Net revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, was $10.9B, beating the $10.7B consensus and up from $10.7B in the prior quarter and $9.51B a year ago. Service revenue rose 13% Y/Y to $4.76B, data processing revenue climbed 17% to $5.54B, and international transaction revenue rose 6% to $3.65B. Client incentives, which subtracted $4.27B from revenue, increased 12% from a year ago.

Visa Inc. (V) total payment volume of $3.87T, topping the Visible Alpha consensus of $3.83T, climbed from $3.73T in Q4 2025 and $3.52T in Q1 2025. Total processed transactions rose 9% Y/Y to 69.4B, missing the Visible Alpha estimate of 69.7B.

Payments volume increased 8% from a year ago in constant dollars, cross-border volume increased 12%, and processed transactions advanced 9%. That compared with Q4 payments volume growth of 9%, cross-border volume growth of 12%, and processed transaction growth of 10%.

Q1 total operating expense of $4.16B dipped from $4.58B in the previous quarter and grew from $3.28B in the year-ago period.

“Visa delivered a very strong fiscal first quarter with net revenue up 15% year-over-year, GAAP EPS up 17%, and non-GAAP EPS up 15%, driven by resilient consumer spending and a strong holiday season, as well as continued strength in value-added services and commercial and money movement solutions,” said CEO Ryan McInerney.

Conference call at 5:00 PM ET.

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We asked Seeking Alpha analysts Treading Softly, Dividend Collection Agency, and Grass Roots Trading which stocks they thought could be impacted if these measures take effect.

Treading Softly: A cap on credit card interest is less impactful to network operators such as Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), American Express (AXP), and Discover (which is owned by Capital One), and significantly more damaging to high-interest credit issuers like Synchrony (SYF), OneMain Financial (OMF), and Capital One (COF). The operators primarily profit from transaction fees, while issuers often rely on interest rates to offset risk.

As for the Credit Card Competition Act, the legislation aims to require two payment networks on a single card to reduce fees by increasing competition. There are only four major networks, and all are readily available to consumers. Discover is the only lower-cost option vs. Visa and Mastercard, while American Express is usually more costly. If this bill does pass, don’t expect a massive decline in swipe fees or cost savings for consumers.

Dividend Collection Agency: The president’s proposal of a 10% cap on interest rates could benefit Americans short-term but cause long-term damage.

While I don’t foresee this being approved, if it is, banks could eliminate cash back programs and introduce stricter card issuance requirements. This would have a negative impact long-term on Americans who rely heavily on credit cards.

Major banks like U.S. Bancorp (USB) would see a greater impact as merchant processing fee revenues could suffer. Credit card companies like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) could also see residual effects. Stricter enforcement of issued cards would not only mean fewer cards but also fewer transactions and lower volumes.

Grass Roots Trading: Trump’s proposed 10% limit on credit card interest rates, along with his renewed support for the Credit Card Competition Act, would likely hit credit card companies the hardest. This includes Capital One (COF), American Express (AXP), and Discover (DFS), along with big banks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). These companies make money from charging interest and are the ones that take the risk if customers don’t pay back their debt.

By comparison, Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) would be less affected by interest rate caps because they don’t issue credit cards or lend money. However, they could still be hurt if swipe fees are reduced or if new rules force more competition in how card payments are processed. Meanwhile, retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) would probably clean up. Cheaper swipe fees and more routing options mean lower costs at the register.

• Top Diversified Bank Stocks
• Top Transaction & Payment Processing Services Stocks
• Top Consumer Finance Stocks

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