Poppi is a prebiotic soda brand founded by husband‑and‑wife team Allison and Stephen Ellsworth, who began by bottling an apple-cider-vinegar–based beverage in their kitchen and selling it at a Dallas farmers’ market before rebranding to Poppi and scaling into retail and national distribution. Early traction came from Whole Foods placement, a 2018 Shark Tank appearance, and subsequent venture funding. Poppi delivered explosive topline growth from 2020 to 2024 as distribution expanded to thousands of retail doors, including Whole Foods (AMZN), Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), CVS, and other mass and natural channels across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

PepsiCo (PEP) announced its $1.95B acquisition of Poppi on March 17, 2025. The deal was framed as a way for the company to advance its “positive choices” growth strategy by adding a differentiated functional soda positioned around gut health and low sugar to its beverage portfolio. The brand has already benefited from PepsiCo’s (PEP) scale in manufacturing, distribution, and marketing. On March 5, PepsiCo (PEP) will launch Poppi sales in the U.K. at selected Tesco (TSCDF) stores & Pret A Manger nationwide before rolling out more widely later in the year. The UK will be the brand’s second international market after Canada.

Before Poppi, PepsiCo’s (PEP) last major success with a new beverage brand was bubly, its internally developed flavored sparkling water line launched in 2018. However, PepsiCo (PEP) does benefit through its distribution deal with Celsius Holdings (CELH) for its namesake brand and the red-hot Alani Nu brand.

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The line launched on TikTok Shop last week to mark the food and beverage giant’s initial product drop on the platform. A broader U.S. retail rollout is planned for March as the company looks to take the concept from a social media discovery tool to mass distribution. Strategically, the program is designed as a “social-first” campaign that meets Gen Z where they discover products, namely TikTok and Instagram.

On a broader scale, PepsiCo (PEP) sees Flavor Swap as a way to use creators not just as media partners but as co-launchers of innovation, while also leaning into data that shows strong Gen Z appetite for social commerce and influencer-recommended products.

Shares of PepsiCo (PEP) are up 18.4% on a year-to-date basis.

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Notably, PepsiCo (PEP) is using Prebiotic Cola to extend its core blue-can brand into the same gut-health and modern soda territory already occupied by newer players such as Poppi and Olipop. The aim is to bring younger, health-oriented consumers back into the traditional Pepsi system. The launch follows PepsiCo’s (PEP) nearly $2 billion acquisition of Poppi in 2025 and slots alongside that brand, with Pepsi Prebiotic Cola offering slightly higher fiber per can than Poppi and being marketed as a major innovation in the cola category.

The prebiotic soda subcategory itself is relatively young, emerging in the late 2010s and early 2020s as brands like Poppi and Olipop repositioned soda as a “functional” beverage rather than a guilty-pleasure treat, using prebiotic fiber, natural flavors, and reduced sugar as the core value proposition. Market data for digestive health soft drinks in the U.S. show the segment more than doubling from roughly $197M in 2020 to more than $500M in 2025. Rival Coca-Cola (KO) is also in the category with Simply Pop, a prebiotic soft drink under the Simply Juice umbrella that is positioned against Olipop and Poppi and offers 6 grams of prebiotic fiber, vitamin C, zinc, and no added sugar.

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Monday – February 16

• All week – The Chinese New Year holiday during the week could impact the consumer sector, including Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO), Trip.com (TCOM), Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD), PDD Holdings (PDD), and Yum China (YUMC).
• All week – The Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference will take place in Orlando, Florida. Notable companies participating include Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), General Mills (GIS), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Philip Morris (PM), and Celsius Holdings (CELH). The conference is known for company updates on long-term strategies and financial targets.
• 8:25 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak at the American Bankers Association Conference.

Tuesday – February 17

• Volatility watch – Bitmine (BMNR) and Sandisk (SNDK) are set up for a volatile week of trading based on options volume. The most overbought stocks per their 14-day relative strength index include TechCreate Group (TCGL), Peakstone Realty Trust (PKST), and Ball (BALL). The most oversold stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index include Verisk (VRSK), Doximity (DOCS), and CS Disco (LAW).
• Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Medtronic (MDT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Energy Transfer (ET), and Devon Energy (DVN). Options trading implies a double-digit swing in share price for Fluor (FLR) and Rush Street Interactive (RSI) after they report.
• Dividend watch – Companies that have an ex-dividend date coming next week include Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Hasbro (HAS), and Microsoft (MSFT).
• IPO watch – AGI (AGBK), Arko Petroleum (APC), and Clear Street Group (CLRS) are expected to price their IPOs and begin to trade. The IPO lockup period expires for blocks of shares of Bullish (BLSH), Nasus Pharma (NSRX), and Magnitude International (MAGH).
• All day – Sonoco Products Company (SON) will hold an Investor Day event in New York City.
• All day – 13F filings from hedge funds and investment managers on holdings at the end of Q4 are due to be disclosed by the end of the day.
• 8:30 a.m. The U.S. Census Bureau is scheduled to release the January Retail Sales report.
• 8:30 a.m. Radware (RDWR) will hold an Investor Day event in New York City.
• 8:50 a.m. The three-day Barclays Industrial Select Conference will begin. Union Pacific (UNP), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Jacobs (J), and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) are some of the notable companies participating.

Wednesday – February 18

• Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Moody’s (MCO), DoorDash (DASH), Blue Owl (OBDC), and Royal Gold (RGLD). Options trading implies a double-digit swing in share price for Carvana (CVNA) and Avis Budget (CAR) after they report.
• All day – Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) will host an Analyst Day event in Boston. The event will feature presentations from Allegro’s executive leadership team on the company’s strategy and growth opportunities, product and technology differentiators, and target financial model.
• All day – The 1-for-8 Noodles (NDLS) reverse stock split will be effective.
• 8:30 a.m. The January Durable Goods order report will be released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
• 8:30 a.m. The Housing Starts report is scheduled to be released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
• 2:00 p.m. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its last meeting.

Thursday – February 19

• Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE), Newmont (NEM), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Dropbox (DBX), and Consolidated Edison (ED). Options trading implies double-digit swings for Lemonade (LMND) and Etsy (ETSY) after they report.
• All day – A10 Networks (ATEN) will host its Investor Day event in San Francisco. The leadership team will outline A10’s long-term growth framework across legacy networking, next-generation networking, and security.
• All day – Meta Platforms (META) Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang will present at the India AI Impact Summit.
• 8:30 a.m. The Philadelphia Fed Index report will be released.

Friday – February 20

• Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Lamar Advertising (LAMR).
• All day – WTI crude March futures will expire. Crude oil futures have seen extra volatility over the last year on contract expiration dates.
• All day – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Bostic will give opening remarks at the Banking Conference Outlook.
• 8:30 a.m. The core PCE price index report for January will be released. Economists forecast a 2.7% increase.
• All day – Qualcomm (QCOM) CEO Cristiano Amon will participate in a keynote session at the India AI Impact Summit.
• All day – Anthropic (ANTHRO) CEO Dario Amodei will participate in a panel discussion at the India AI Impact Summit on public infrastructure for AI.
• All day – It is the last trading day before the FDA action date on Medicenna Therapeutics’ (MDNAF) Bizaxofusp.

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OpenAI (OPENAI) and Anthropic (ANTHRO) are using Super Bowl LX to take their escalating product fight to the massive viewing audience, with Anthropic (ANTHRO) openly jabbing OpenAI’s (OPENAI) new ad model and OpenAI countering with its pitch that it is the future of AI.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) will be the largest advertiser for Super Bowl LX on February 8.

The beer giant has locked in about two minutes and thirty seconds of national Super Bowl advertising and 45 seconds of regional advertising. The plan is to use the game as a launchpad for 2026 campaigns behind flagship brands Budweiser (#7 in U.S. volume in 2025), Bud Light (#3), and Michelob Ultra (#1). Budweiser’s advertising spot will be more serious and heritage-driven, explicitly tying into the brand’s 150th anniversary and positioning the beer as made in America. Bud Light will air spots aimed at the mass, party-focused audience with an irreverent, celebrity-led execution. Red-hot Michelob Ultra will lean into performance and wellness themes, using its Super Bowl creative to promote “America’s competitive spirit” and to seed its Team USA partnership ahead of the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics later in the month and the World Cup in the summer.

Instacart (CART) is airing a 30-second in-game spot titled “Bananas.” It will mark the company’s second-ever Super Bowl commercial. The Spike Jonze-directed spot features a musical showdown on a 60-foot stage between Ben Stiller and Benson Boone, using a duet about choosing the perfect bananas to introduce the company’s preference picker feature for selecting ripeness.

Rocket Mortgage (RKT) will have a big presence at the Big Game with a 60-second Super Bowl LX commercial featuring Lady Gaga that doubles as a joint showcase with Redfin. Notably, Rocket acquired Redfin last year and is looking to sell consumers on the “full home journey” platform (search plus finance) that it now features.

PepsiCo (PEP) will run ads for Pepsi Zero Sugar, Lay’s, and Poppi as it looks to position itself in the “better-for-you” snacking category. The Gatorade brand will not have its commercial but will have its place on the sidelines as usual.

Direct-to-patient telehealth company Ro is making its Super Bowl debut with tennis legend Serena Williams promoting GLP-1 medications, highlighting her 34-pound weight loss and improved health markers, including reduced cholesterol and joint stress. The spot aims to rebrand weight-loss medication from a cosmetic shortcut to a serious clinical intervention. Novo Nordisk (NVO) plans to run its first in-game Super Bowl spot, a 90-second celebrity-filled ad to promote the new oral Wegovy weight-loss pill.

Liquid Death is returning for its second consecutive Super Bowl with a 30-second national ad airing in the first half. The spot will focus on the brand’s new Sparkling Energy line, using the same irreverent, tongue-in-cheek tone that defined its prior “Safe for Work” Super Bowl ad. Liquid Death is one of the beverage upstarts that is expected to have an IPO in the future.

Sazerac is taking its Svedka vodka brand to the Big Game for the first time in 12 years. The advertisement is expected to be one of the first spots created primarily with generative AI. The creative revives Svedka’s mid-2000s “Fembot” mascot.

Unilever’s (UL) Liquid I.V. brand will make its Super Bowl debut with a spot that attempts to reframe hydration as a “game-winning play” rather than a wellness fad. The brand’s chief marketing officer said the spot is designed to “flip the script on what wellness looks like,” using the Super Bowl stage to normalize electrolyte and performance-oriented hydration.

Meta Platforms (META) is returning to advertise during the Super Bowl. The creative is being used to promote the company’s new Oakley‑branded AI smart glasses line.

Cadillac will use a Super Bowl LX TV spot to reveal the livery of its first Formula 1 car. The ad will serve as a high-profile introduction of Cadillac F1, which is being backed by General Motors (GM) and TWG Motorsports. Cadillac F1 has been formally approved by the FIA and Formula One (FWONA) (FWONK) (FWONB) management to join the World Championship from the 2026 season.

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The stock had gained about 12.67% between January 29 and February 5, compared to a 2.45% slide of the S&P 500 during the same period.

PepsiCo shares advanced after the company beat fourth-quarter earnings and revenue expectations and provided an outlook for 2026. Growth in North America and strong Frito-Lay performance, supported by targeted affordability initiatives, helped lift investor confidence. Sentiment was further boosted by an increase in the annual dividend and the announcement of a $10 billion share buyback program.

According to Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system, PEP is rated Hold, with a score of 3.32 out of 5, receiving an A+ for profitability but a D+ for growth and valuation.

On Wall Street, seven of 23 analysts rate the stock Buy or higher, 15 recommend Hold, and one recommends a Strong Sell.

An analyst said PepsiCo’s rally was driven more by multiple expansion than fundamentals, noting that “volumes remain weak, margins are under pressure, and the stock now prices in a recovery that has yet to show up.” They added that “with price cuts of up to 15% now planned, Pepsi is effectively trading margin certainty for a volume rebound” and warned that “upside now depends on execution, not patience—and that materially raises the risk profile for new buyers.”

Shares have surged around 21% in the past one month and have gained approximately 17.38% year-to-date.

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Management View

• CEO Ramon Laguarta described a multi-vector strategy for category growth, emphasizing accelerated affordability initiatives targeting low- and middle-income consumers. He explained, “this will be a very surgical, very focused on particular brands, particular formats, particular channels, investment. And we — from the test that we’ve done at scale in multiple markets, this has very good ROI for us. You should be thinking this on top of space gains, big space games that we’re getting through the partnership with our customers because of these investments in price.”
• Laguarta highlighted ongoing restaging of key brands, including Gatorade and Quaker, with early-year relaunches for Lay’s and Tostitos and major campaigns for Gatorade and Quaker later in the year.
• CFO Stephen Schmitt noted, “we’re playing offense here. And second, we’re excited about the initiatives and the benefits that will come both in volume and sales growth. And third, from an overall perspective, this investment is manageable for the business. It’s included in our guidance and our productivity progress, as you mentioned, certainly, that’s going to help fund the initiatives that we have.”
• Schmitt also addressed advertising spend: “You’re right. It did go down this year. We did get some efficiency from both the working and non-working advertising line. And your assumption that it should go up next year is a good one, too. That’s a benefit from — just from a cost of sales standpoint that we did get in 2025 that we would expect not to get that same benefit.”

Outlook

• Management expects Frito-Lay to grow volume, net revenue, and operating margin in 2026, with volume and net revenue growth anticipated early in the year. Laguarta stated, “we expect Frito-Lay to grow volume, net revenue and operating margin this year. So that should be the framework that we operate in.”
• The company projects sales to strengthen in the second half as more initiatives gain traction and acquisitions such as poppi contribute to organic growth. Schmitt described the year as “pretty balanced from a first half, second half standpoint.”
• Laguarta expects international business to maintain mid-single-digit growth, with acceleration mainly from North America, especially in the food business. He explained, “the acceleration comes mostly from our North America businesses.”

Financial Results

• Executives cited strong productivity in the fourth quarter, with expectations for this to continue funding commercial initiatives and innovation.
• Significant shelf space gains were announced for Frito-Lay, with Laguarta stating, “the average space gain for Frito-Lay in the new resets of both the main aisle and the perimeter will be double digit.”
• The company reported advertising expense declined by $500 million in 2025, with plans to increase investment in 2026 to support growth and innovation.

Q&A

• Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs, asked about balancing affordability initiatives and margin expansion in PFNA. Schmitt responded that investments are “manageable for the business” and productivity gains will fund these initiatives. Laguarta emphasized the focus on targeted affordability and innovation.
• Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan, inquired about pricing reinvestment and volume trajectory. Laguarta reiterated expectations for early-year growth in Frito-Lay and described space gains as a key return driver. Schmitt highlighted the expectation of stronger sales in the second half.
• Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley, questioned the focus and ROI of affordability investments. Laguarta confirmed the approach is “very surgical” and “well tested at scale,” with good volume return.
• Lauren Lieberman, Barclays, asked about the advertising decrease. Schmitt confirmed the reduction and indicated increased spending in 2026.
• Filippo Falorni, Citi, probed organic sales acceleration. Laguarta explained international growth is expected to remain steady, with acceleration from North America and contributions from acquisitions.
• Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas, asked about the impact of GLP-1 adoption. Laguarta stated, “we should assume that there will be a broader adoption of GLP-1 medicines,” outlining portion control, hydration, and fiber/protein innovation as levers.
• Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler, asked about strategic shifts in marketing for major brands. Laguarta detailed the holistic relaunch of Lay’s, emphasizing simplicity, natural ingredients, and increased A&M investment.
• Robert Moskow, TD Cowen, asked about integrated food and beverage distribution tests in Texas and Florida. Laguarta noted positive early results and plans to provide more details later in the year.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts expressed concerns about the sustainability of margin expansion amid affordability investments, the volume trajectory in PFNA, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs, with a tone that was neutral to slightly skeptical. Questions focused on strategic execution, ROI of investments, and financial discipline.
• Management maintained an optimistic and confident tone in both prepared remarks and responses, repeatedly emphasizing the strength of their productivity initiatives and the expected ROI of targeted affordability actions. Laguarta stated, “we feel very good about how these different interventions will continue to drive accelerated growth in the balance of the year.”
• Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone was more assertive about acceleration, while analysts’ skepticism shifted from cost structure and innovation costs to the impact and timing of new initiatives.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• The current quarter saw a more explicit focus on affordability and shelf space expansion as growth drivers, compared to previous quarter’s broader discussion of portfolio transformation and innovation.
• Guidance language shifted from a general expectation of returning to long-term growth algorithms to explicit projections for early-year volume and margin growth in Frito-Lay and balanced EPS throughout the year.
• Analysts in both quarters pressed on margin sustainability, cost efficiency, and growth trajectory, but this quarter’s questions focused more on the execution and payback of new affordability strategies and recent acquisitions.
• Management’s confidence increased regarding the effectiveness of targeted investments and productivity gains in driving both growth and profitability.

Risks and Concerns

• Management acknowledged the ongoing challenge of meeting the needs of middle- and low-income consumers, who remain “stretched and choiceful.”
• The company is actively addressing the potential impact of broader GLP-1 drug adoption through portion control, hydration, and product innovation.
• Execution risk exists in scaling integrated distribution and achieving projected shelf space gains.
• The macro backdrop remains uncertain, with varying consumer trends across major markets.

Final Takeaway

PepsiCo management underscored a comprehensive plan to drive accelerated growth in 2026, centered on targeted affordability initiatives, double-digit shelf space expansion for Frito-Lay, and a robust pipeline of brand restaging and innovation. Productivity gains from 2025 are expected to fund these commercial investments, with a balanced approach to volume and margin growth. The company remains confident in early-year acceleration and sustained improvement through the year, supported by focused execution and adaptability to evolving consumer trends.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript

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Revenue was up 5.6% year-over-year to $29.3 billion. Organic sales rose 2.1% during the quarter to edge past the consensus expectation for a rise of 2.0%. Organic sales growth was led by a 5% increase for the Europe, Middle East, and Africa segment, while the PepsiCo Foods North America segment lagged with a 1% decline.

Total volume for food fell 2% during the quarter, while beverage volume was up 1%.

Operating profit was up 13% during the quarter on a constant currency basis, driven higher by double-digit increases in the PepsiCo Beverages North America and EMEA segments. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 topped the consensus estimate by $0.02.

Looking ahead, PepsiCo (PEP) expects organic revenue to be up 2% to 4% for the full year and core constant currency EPS to be up between 4% and 6%. Total cash returns to shareholders are expected to be approximately $8.9 billion, comprised of dividends of $7.9 billion and share repurchases of $1.0 billion.

“For fiscal 2026, we aim to accelerate growth by restaging large, global brands, introducing an expansive set of product innovations in emerging and functional spaces, and offering sharper value to address consumer affordability dynamics. We also aim to deliver arecord year of productivity savings, which will help fund investments to accelerate growth,” stated CEO Ramon Laguarta. “As a result, we expect North America’s business performance to improve and the international business to remain resilient this year,” he added.

Shares of PepsiCo (PEP) were down 1.1% in premarket trading. Coca-Cola (KO) edged 0.6% lower, and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) dipped 0.4%.

Weighing in on the report, Seeking Alpha analyst Agara Capital noted the fact that PepsiCo (PEP) exceeded overall sales projections does not mean all is well because much of the strength came from the international segment. “The important data point, however, remains that food sales declined 1% in North America. This supports my belief that the company has little, if any, pricing power left and can only overcome this through aggressive investments to restore volume,” added Agar Capital. The $10 billion buyback and dividend are expected to provide some comfort to shareholders who were concerned about the company over the last few months. However, it was also seen as an admission that the company will need to utilize financial engineering to continue to support the stock. Agar Capital said the narrative changes from “bearish” to “I want to see.”

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*Other Operating Data Consensus Source: Bloomberg

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