Wall Street Lunch: A Nike-Caitlin Clark Collab?

Summary:

• Nike is reportedly close to signing an eight-figure endorsement deal with college basketball star Caitlin Clark, which would include a signature shoe.
• April Philly Fed index rose to 15.5, the highest reading since 2022.
• Check out Morgan Stanley’s stock picks with near-term catalysts heading into earnings.

Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify

Nike closing in on new deal with Iowa star, including signature shoe. (0:16) Philly Fed manufacturing highest since April ’22 (1:39) Deutsche Bank cries ‘uncle’ on its Tesla Buy. (3:29)

This is an abridged transcript of the podcast.

Nike (NYSE:NKE) is closing in on inking an endorsement deal with Caitlin Clark. That’s according to The Athletic.

Sources indicated that the eight-figure endorsement deal would include a signature Nike shoe. Nike currently has a shoe deal with WNBA star Sabrina Ionescu called the Sabrina 1. Caitlin Clark is reported to have been approached by Under Armour (UAA) and Adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY) as well.

The previous deal between Caitlin Clark and Nike (NKE) expired after the conclusion of the recently finished college basketball season. Clark’s popularity skyrocketed during the course of the season, which saw her set the all-time NCAA scoring record and lead her team to the tournament final.

Clark’s Iowa Hawkeyes set attendance records both home and away, while games featuring Caitlin Clark saw sky-high viewership ratings. Earlier in the week, the WNBA draft saw its viewership soar 400% from a year ago, due in part to the Caitlin Clark Effect.

Shares of Nike have picked up momentum over the last week after the company held a high-profile product launch in Paris, the site of the Summer Olympics, in just a few months. The event covered the launch of its Blueprint Pack offering, consisting of 13 new products across track shoes, basketball shoes, soccer shoes, and lifestyle shoes. The main attraction was the 41st version of Nike’s Pegasus shoes, which is considered the centerpiece of the running business.

In today’s trading

Stocks are again having trouble getting traction one way or another, but the Dow (DJI) is outperforming the broader market due to another gain in UnitedHealth (UNH).

Rates are up again following a strong read on manufacturing activity.

The April Philly Fed index rose to 15.5 from 3.2 in March, well ahead of the consensus of 1.5. It was the third consecutive positive reading and the highest reading since April 2022.

New orders rose to 12.2 from 5.4.

Pantheon Macroeconomics says: “While far from conclusive, this report provides some marginal support in favor of a recovery in the manufacturing sector after its prolonged slump.”

Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer, Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, says, “We are firmly in the camp of no rate cuts in 2024. While it’s unlikely to occur, there is actually a strong case to be made for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2024 given elevated inflation, low unemployment, high stock prices, bitcoin surging, and the re-emergence of IPOs.”

“Most investors are underweight inflation, as they believed the Fed when it declared victory over inflation late last year,” Landsberg said. “We have been buying and will continue to buy asset classes that will benefit from higher inflation and higher rates, which include stocks in the energy, materials, and insurance sectors, as well as commodities such as crude oil.”

Looking to earnings and active stocks

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) posted Q1 results that beat estimates. For the second quarter, TSM expects revenue to be between $19.6 billion and $20.4 billion. The Street consensus is $19.08 billion.

CFO Wendell Huang said: “Moving into second quarter 2024, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies, partially offset by continued smartphone seasonality.”

Deutsche Bank cut its rating on Tesla (TSLA) to Hold after having a Buy rating in place on the stock for several years. The firm pointed to the high likelihood of the Model 2 launch being pushed out and the company’s change of strategic priority to the Robotaxi business, which is seen as having executive risk and a multi-year timeline.

Analyst Emmanuel Rosner said, “The delay of Model 2 efforts creates the risk of no new vehicle in Tesla’s consumer lineup for the foreseeable future, which would put continued downward pressure on its volume and pricing for many more years, requiring downward earnings estimate revisions for 2026+.”

And Morgan Stanley expects U.S. e-commerce to grow at a strong 8% compound annual growth rate to penetrate 29% of retail spending in 2028. But it warned that market share gains would be dominated by the larger e-commerce players.

The firm’s ratings reset in the e-commerce sector included a double upgrade for eBay (EBAY) to Overweight from Underweight and a downgrade on Etsy (ETSY) to Underweight. It also kept an Overweight rating on Chewy (CHWY) and called it a top idea.

In other news of note

While many anticipate great AI reveals at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June, analysts at Bernstein expect the company to wait until September, when the iPhone 16 launch occurs.

Analysts Toni Sacconaghi and Daniel Zhu said that would be “consistent with other key software features like Dynamic Island, Siri, and FaceTime, all of which were introduced at the time of phone launch. We see the timeline for AI features such as a multi-modal Siri and an AI wellness coach as less clear.”

Bernstein expects the iPhone 16, at minimum, will offer AI features similar to the Pixel 8 and Galaxy 24. Other possibilities for AI integration include Apple Music, Xcode, Pages, and Keynote.

And in the Wall Street Research Corner

Morgan Stanley highlights 14 companies with near-term catalysts heading into earnings.

Analyst Michelle M. Weaver says, “Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), and Financials (XLF) have had positive revision breadth in the two weeks leading into earnings, while Discretionary (XLY), Tech (XLK), and Communications Services (XLC) have had negative revision breadth over that period.”

But in the longer run, earnings growth should have a healthier runway through the end of the year with greater investor confidence. She said Morgan Stanley’s in-house earnings model shows 10-15% growth on a forward 12-month basis.

Among the companies with positive catalysts are AbbVie (ABBV), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and SBA Communications (SBAC). Highwoods Properties (HIW) and Logitech International (LOGI) have negative outlooks.

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