Iron ore extends decline to lowest since 2022 as China cuts steel output

Iron ore prices continued their downward spiral on Thursday, sinking to their lowest in nearly two years amid concerns that global supply is running ahead of demand while China’s steelmakers are mired in crisis.

Iron ore futures (SCO:COM) fell by as much as 3.1% in Singapore to $92.65/ton, their fourth straight daily decline and the lowest intraday price since November 2022.

Data from China showed mills cut steel production by ~9% to 82.9M tons last month, the lowest total this year; China is the largest importer of seaborne iron ore, and sets the tone in the global market.

The ongoing woes in China’s real estate market and shrinking factory activity have pushed domestic prices sharply lower, prompting a warning this week from China Baowu Steel, the world’s largest steel producer, about an industry crisis.

Also, the Chinese government has been unwilling to offset the steel price weakness by ramping up spending on infrastructure, which has helped rescue the market during previous downturns.

Chinese steel consumption may shrink as much as 3% in 2024 following a similar decline last year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Potentially relevant stocks include BHP (NYSE:BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO), Vale (VALE), Fortescue (OTCQX:FSUMF), Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF) (OTCPK:GLNCY) and Anglo American (OTCQX:AAUKF) (OTCQX:NGLOY).