Apple sinks as analyst says iPhone 16 pre-order estimates lower than expected

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was in focus on Monday as a widely watched analyst estimated that the first weekend pre-order shipments for the iPhone 16 line were roughly 37M units, amid “lower-than-expected” demand for the iPhone 16 Pro.

Shares fell 1.9% in premarket trading.

“iPhone 16 series first-weekend pre-order sales are estimated at about 37 million units, down about 12.7% YoY from last year’s iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales,” TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a post on Medium. “The key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series.”

The delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro model is “significantly shorter” than that of the 15 Pro, Kuo explained. Delivery estimates range between one and two weeks for the 16 Pro model, while the 15 Pro in its first weekend of pre-order was three to four weeks.

“One of the key factors for the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the major selling point, Apple Intelligence, is not available at launch alongside the iPhone 16 release,” Kuo wrote. “Additionally, intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact iPhone demand.”

The delivery estimates for the 16 Pro Max is between three and four weeks, compared to seven to eight for the 15 Pro Max, while the 16 Plus and 16 regular have delivery estimates between two and three weeks and one to two weeks.

Kuo added that Apple and its supply chain partners are unlikely to change production plans “significantly” in the short-term and that the Cupertino, Calif.-based company could improve sales as its artificial intelligence system, Apple Intelligence, is released over time, and the holiday shopping season approaches.

The Tim Cook-led company announced the iPhone 16 lineup earlier this month as it touted its artificial intelligence capabilities.