How financial stocks may fare in a ‘game of regulatory seats’ under a Trump White House

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) outlined the potential impact on financial stocks by Donald Trump likely launching leadership changes at federal regulatory agencies should he win back the White House.

Eight regulatory agencies could undergo leadership changes on the first day of a Trump presidency, KBW said in a research report this week. The Federal Reserve would see a major overhaul in 2026 with Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending, analysts led by Matt Kelley, KBW’s director of research, said.

Investors could eventually see outperformance by banks, consumer finance, brokers and title insurance stocks under a Trump administration. Vice President Kamala Harris winning the presidency is likely to result in fewer makeovers in agency leaderships.

Here’s how KBW sees some agency changes impacting financial stocks:

Day 1 Trump replacements –

SEC: Current Chair is Gary Gensler

• Under Trump: Potentially positive for (ARCC), (OBDC), (FSK), (BXSL), (HOOD), (COIN), and (BLK). Brokers, crypto exchanges, asset managers could benefit from a more favorable crypto regulatory backdrop. Investment banks may see less restrictive M&A environment.
• Under Harris: Potential negative for (HOOD), (COIN), (BLK). Potential negative for certain brokers and crypto exchanges stemming from current policies, including legal battles with crypto.

CFPB: Current Director is Rohit Chopra

• Under Trump: Potentially positive for (SQ), (PYPL), (BFH), (SYF), (FNF), (FAF), (STC). Consumer finance would benefit from lower regulatory risk, such as potential rollback of credit card late fees. Payments, title insurers could benefit from reduced regulatory scrutiny.
• Under Harris: Potentially negative for consumer finance stocks, (FNF), (FAF), (SQ), (PYPL), and (STC) under continuation of regulatory scrutiny.

FDIC: Current Chairman is Martin Gruenberg

• Under Harris: Potentially negative for (PNC), (FHN), (CMA), and consumer finance stocks. Stalled M&A activity would negatively impact banks, KBW said. Consumer finance companies with bank charters may be impacted by regulatory pressure.
• Under Trump: Potential positive for bank M&A and consumer finance companies with a bank charter (no stocks listed).

FHFA: Current Director is Sandra Thompson

• Under Trump: Potentially positive for (FNF), (FAF), (STC), (OTCQB:FNMA) and (OTCQB:FMCC). Potential negative for (WD) and (ABR). Reform at Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) more likely, KBW said. Commercial real estate and housing, particularly multifamily lenders/services, could be negatively impacted. GSE multifamily lending caps could be reduced, with more restrictive changes introduced. Likely termination of GSE pilot program should benefit title insurers.
• Under Harris: Potentially negative for (FNF), (FAF), (STC), (OTCQB:FNMA) and (OTCQB:FMCC). Potential positive for (WD) and (ABR). Negative impact on GSEs, with reform likely to remain on the backburner. CRE could benefit from continuation of existing GSE policy leaning into housing mission.

CFTC: Current Chairman is Rostin Behnam

• Under Trump: Potential positive for (JPM), (GS), and (MS). Global Systemically Important Banks, or G-SIBs, could see a positive impact on trading businesses in addition to leverage and collateral requirements.
• Under Harris: Potential negative for (JPM), (GS), and (MS) as continued policies would not benefit banks, particularly G-SIBs.

FTC: Current Commissioner is Lina Khan

• Under Trump: Potential positive for (EVR), (PJT), (PWP), (LAZ), (GS), and (MS) as a “less restrictive” M&A environment could serve investment banks, KBW said.
• Under Harris: Restrictive M&A environment a potential negative for the stocks listed right above.

DOJ: Current U.S. Attorney General is Merrick Garland

• Under Trump: Potentially positive for investment bank stocks and a merged (COF) with (DFS). Less restrictive M&A environment would be a positive for investment banks, consumer finance companies.
• Under Harris: Potentially negative for investment bank stocks and (COF)/(DFS).

In 2026, Federal Reserve: Current Chair is Jerome Powell

• Under Trump: Potential positive for (BAC), (C), (JPM), (WFC), (GS), (MS), (ZION), (CMA), (FHN), (EWBC), (WBS) and (WAL). Banks, particularly G-SIBs, benefit from the elimination of Basel III. Systemically Important Financial Institution, or SIFI, designation unlikely for asset managers, a positive. Monetary policy potentially less restrictive.
• Under Harris: Potential negative for (C), (GS), and (WFC). Banks, consumer finance could be hurt by heightened regulation, implementation of Basel III endgame rules. But some non-bank mortgage companies could benefit from Basel III reducing the role of banks in the mortgage market.