Cruise line upside: Carnival points to strong demand for 2025 and 2026

Carnival (NYSE:CCL) reported that Q3 revenue rose to an all-time high for the quarter of $7.9 billion. Carnival (CCL) also saw record net yields in constant currency. Gross margin yields increased by 19% year-over-year and net yields exceeded 2023 levels by 8.7%. Ticket prices and onboard spending were both up mid-single digits. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of $2.82 billion was ahead of the consensus estimate of $2.67 billion.

Carnival Corporation (CCL) said it is poised to deliver record operating performance for full year 2024, with adjusted EBITDA now expected to cross $6 billion and adjusted return on invested capital1 to be approximately 10.5 percent. CCL management said strong demand enabled the cruise line operator to increase its full-year yield guidance for the third time this year on favorable cost guidance.

Notably, Carnival’s (CCL) said booking volume was strong for 2025 sailings at higher prices in constant currency compared to the prior year. The company said cumulative advanced booked position for full year 2025 is above the previous 2024 record with prices also ahead of last year.

Carnival’s (CCL) bookings update: “With nearly half of 2025 booked and less inventory remaining for sale than the prior year, we are leveraging strong demand to achieve record ticket pricing (in constant currency). Our brands continue to deliver robust bookings momentum, with all our brands ahead on price for 2025 sailings, based on the success of their demand generation efforts along with the exciting offerings and unparalleled experiences we consistently provide our guests. Likewise, 2026 is off to an unprecedented start, achieving record booking volumes in the last three months.”

On the guidance front, Carnival (CCL) sees full-year adjusted EBITDA of $6.0 billion, vs. $5.9 billion consensus.

Carnival (CCL) fell 2.0% in early Monday morning trading following the report. The cruise line stock had rallied in the month ahead of the earnings report. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (CLH) was down 2.2% in early action, and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) was off 1.6%. Viking Holdings (VIK) showed a gain of 0.4% and Lindblad Expeditions Holdings (LIND) trickled 0.2% lower.