How does Apple stack up with teens? It’s complicated.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has enormous amounts of brand loyalty with all age groups, but the minds of teenagers are notoriously fickle, as any parent will tell you. And while the tech giant still has a strong hold on this important demographic, it’s not quite as strong as it has been in the past.

Investment firm Piper Sandler recently conducted its Taking Stock with Teens Fall 2024 survey and of the roughly 13,500 teens surveyed, 22% plan to upgrade their phones to an iPhone 16 this fall or winter. That’s down slightly from last year’s survey, when 23% of teens said they intended to upgrade their devices and 24% of respondents in 2022.

Eighty-seven percent of teens own an iPhone, fairly stable to last year’s survey, when 88% of respondents said they owned an iPhone.

Despite the slight dip from the previous two years, the 22% of respondents who said they intend to upgrade to the new iPhone is actually up from 20% when Piper Sandler conducted its survey in the spring.

Apple Intelligence: a big question mark

Much interest has been focused on Apple’s foray into artificial intelligence, with its Apple Intelligence system. And while some analysts and others in the media have expressed a ho-hum reaction towards Apple Intelligence, 29% of teens said they were going to upgrade their Apple devices because of Apple Intelligence, which the firm said “feels low given the enthusiasm.”

(Only one in six teens said they were unaware of Apple Intelligence.)

So does that mean it’s time for teens to upgrade?

While some have suggested the iPhone 16 will usher in a “super cycle” of consumers rushing to upgrade their devices, it’s unclear at this point if teens will take part in that trend. The average teen is roughly three generations behind the iPhone 16, according to the survey.

Approximately 18% of respondents said they owned a smartphone in the iPhone 15 line, while 25% said they owned an iPhone 13, “slightly below the iPhone 14 ramp after 1-year post-launch”

For comparison purposes, the fact that the average teen is roughly three generations behind the iPhone 16 is up from approximately 2.5 generations behind the newest model in Fall 2022, Piper Sandler said.

Other puts and takes

Though the focus of the Apple part of the survey was on the iPhone, teens (and their parents) are still beholden to Apple’s ecosystem.

More than 70% of teens own AirPods, with 25% of them said they expect a pair of the wireless headphones in the next six months.

Separately, more than 30% of respondents said they owned an Apple Watch and iPad, while roughly 10% of respondents said they watched Apple TV.

And last but not least, roughly 33% of teens surveyed said they use Apple Music and 28% of the teens themselves pay the subscription.