3 Reasons Dividend Investors Should Buy Amazon With Both Hands

Summary:

  • Amazon is an ultra value strong buy, especially for high-yield investors, with a 44% undervaluation and explosive return potential justified by spectacular fundamentals.
  • Combining Amazon with high-yield blue chips can turbocharge long-term income, resulting in inflation-adjusted income over the last 25 years.
  • Amazon’s hyper growth is driven by investments in high-margin sectors like AWS and advertising, with a clear path to continued growth beyond 2029.
  • Amazon’s over $1 trillion in growth spending through 2029 is expected to generate almost $200 billion in free cash flow in 2030, and its cash pile could grow to $700+ billion.
  • Amazon could likely soon begin paying dividends and buying back stock, but its 0.5 PEG ratio, 27% annual growth in free cash flow, and 80% one-year return potential make it the most attractive big tech name by a wide margin for 2025 and beyond.
Stack of one hundred dollar bills isolated on white background. Stack of cash money in hundred dollar banknotes. Heap of hundred dollar bills background. Concept of financial success.

bigtunaonline/iStock via Getty Images

Bottom Line Up Front: Amazon Is An Ultra Value Buy Ahead Of Earnings… Including Dividend Investors

Amazon isn’t a dividend stock... yet, but it’s clear that if it grows as expected, one day soon, it will likely have to pay a

Year Total Debt (Millions) Cash Net Debt (Millions)
2023 $58,314 $73,387 $62,224
2024 $53,930 $111,920 -$24,492
2025 $52,130 $178,869 -$95,788
2026 $50,477 $279,024 -$179,444
2027 $58,314 $407,840 -$279,861
2028 $58,314 $553,890 -$371,143
2029 $58,314 $674,052 -$484,828
Annualized Growth (2024-2029) 0.0% 44.7% 81.7%

Metric High-Yield Blue-Chips (ENB, BTI, TD) AMZN + High-Yield Blue-Chips S&P 500
Total Income $4,982.45 $57,469.42 $1,500.33
Inflation-Adjusted Income $2,516.39 $29,024.96 $757.74
Total Withdrawals $7,014.53 $147,898.24 $1,930.60
Inflation-Adjusted Total Withdrawals $3,542.69 $74,696.08 $975.05
Inflation-Adjusted Withdrawals Compared To High-Yield Blue-Chips Alone 1.00 21.08 0.28
Starting Yield 5.07% 2.54% 2.54%
Yield On Cost 37.0% 864.9% 12.9%
Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost 18.67% 436.81% 6.50%
Income Growth 9.3% 26.0% 7.8%
Total Return 5.7% 19.4% 1.9%

Year Sales Free Cash Flow EBITDA EBIT (Operating Income) Net Income
2023 $574,785 $36,658 $110,775 $36,852 $30,425
2024 $635,274 $54,500 $141,001 $62,301 $50,635
2025 $704,013 $69,500 $167,703 $76,385 $63,178
2026 $777,054 $96,495 $197,680 $93,855 $78,543
2027 $852,458 $118,438 $210,646 $114,439 $94,473
2028 $917,228 $130,861 $238,465 $133,866 $111,668
2029 $991,689 $152,116 $272,179 $160,044 $134,634
Annualized Growth 2024-2029 9.5% 26.8% 16.2% 27.7% 28.1%
Cumulative 2024-2029 $4,877,716 $621,910 $1,227,674 $640,890 $533,131

Year FCF Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT (Operating) Margin Net Margin
2023 6.4% 19.3% 6.4% 5.3%
2024 8.6% 22.2% 9.8% 8.0%
2025 9.9% 23.8% 10.8% 9.0%
2026 12.4% 25.4% 12.1% 10.1%
2027 13.9% 24.7% 13.4% 11.1%
2028 14.3% 26.0% 14.6% 12.2%
2029 15.3% 27.4% 16.1% 13.6%
Annualized Growth 15.8% 6.1% 16.6% 17.0%

Year Total Debt (Millions) Cash Net Debt (Millions)
2023 $58,314 $73,387 $62,224
2024 $53,930 $111,920 -$24,492
2025 $52,130 $178,869 -$95,788
2026 $50,477 $279,024 -$179,444
2027 $58,314 $407,840 -$279,861
2028 $58,314 $553,890 -$371,143
2029 $58,314 $674,052 -$484,828
Annualized Growth (2024-2029) 0.0% 44.7% 81.7%

S&P LT Risk Management Score Rating
0% to 9% Very Poor
10% to 19% Poor
20% to 29% Suboptimal
30% to 59% Acceptable
60% to 69% Good
70% to 79% Very Good
80+% Exceptional
Amazon 27.0%
Global Percentile 50% (Top 50% of companies)

Year AMZN Return S&P Return
2000 -79.56% -9.73%
2022 -49.62% -18.17%
2008 -44.65% -36.81%
2001 -30.47% -11.76%
2014 -22.18% 13.46%
Average -45.30% -12.60%
Median -44.65% -11.76%

Year AMZN Return S&P Return
1998 966.39% 28.69%
1997 234.72% 15.31%
2003 178.56% 28.17%
2009 162.32% 26.37%
2007 134.77% 5.14%
Average 335.35% 20.74%
Median 178.56% 26.37%

Amazon S&P 500
Year Month Return Return
2001 2 -41.16% -9.54%
2000 12 -36.96% -0.52%
2001 9 -33.22% -8.16%
2000 11 -32.59% -7.47%
1999 5 -30.98% -2.29%
2006 7 -30.48% 0.49%
2004 7 -28.46% -3.22%
2001 8 -28.42% -5.93%
2008 11 -25.40% -6.96%
2000 6 -24.84% 1.97%
1998 8 -24.46% -14.12%
2022 4 -23.75% -8.78%
2008 10 -21.33% -16.52%
2018 10 -20.22% -6.91%
1999 7 -20.03% -3.10%
2002 12 -19.10% -5.66%
Average -27.59% -6.05%
Median -26.91% -6.42%

Amazon S&P 500
Year Month Return Return
1998 6 126.38% 4.26%
1997 9 85.52% 4.81%
1998 12 67.32% 6.54%
2001 11 62.18% 7.80%
1997 7 55.41% 7.93%
2001 4 54.25% 7.04%
2007 4 54.13% 4.43%
1998 11 51.85% 5.57%
2000 8 37.76% 6.60%
2005 7 36.45% 3.83%
1999 3 34.39% 4.15%
1998 9 33.28% 6.36%
2002 1 31.15% -0.98%
1998 2 30.51% 6.93%
1999 9 28.54% -2.24%
2009 10 27.26% -1.92%
Average 51.02% 4.44%
Median 44.81% 5.19%

Amazon Managed Futures 50% AMZN, 50% Managed Futures Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Year Month Return Return Return Return
2022 4 -23.75% 10.00% -5.29% -8.73%
2018 10 -20.22% -6.20% -15.29% -6.85%
2016 1 -13.15% 5.88% -3.63% -4.98%
2022 12 -12.99% -0.80% -4.43% -5.77%
2022 6 -11.65% 6.60% 0.04% -8.27%
2018 12 -11.13% 2.75% -5.99% -9.04%
2022 9 -10.86% 8.62% 1.63% -9.22%
2022 1 -10.28% 2.72% -3.78% -5.19%
Average -14.25% 3.70% -4.59% -7.26%
Median -12.32% 4.32% -4.11% -7.56%

Amazon Managed Futures 50% AMZN, 50% Managed Futures Vanguard 500 Index Investor
Year Month Return Return Return Return
2022 7 27.06% -5.67% 4.72% 9.21%
2020 4 26.89% -0.10% 13.30% 12.81%
2010 9 25.82% 4.55% 15.20% 8.92%
2018 1 24.06% 6.74% 15.40% 5.71%
2015 7 23.51% 2.64% 14.82% 2.08%
2023 1 22.77% -0.89% 10.94% 6.27%
2015 10 22.27% -1.29% 13.27% 8.42%
2013 10 16.44% 4.30% 10.90% 4.59%
Average 23.60% 1.29% 12.32% 7.25%
Median 23.79% 1.27% 13.29% 7.35%

Metric High-Yield Blue-Chips (ENB, BTI, TD) AMZN + High-Yield Blue-Chips S&P 500
Total Income $4,982.45 $57,469.42 $1,500.33
Inflation-Adjusted Income $2,516.39 $29,024.96 $757.74
Total Withdrawals $7,014.53 $147,898.24 $1,930.60
Inflation-Adjusted Total Withdrawals $3,542.69 $74,696.08 $975.05
Inflation-Adjusted Withdrawals Compared To High-Yield Blue-Chips Alone 1.00 21.08 0.28
Starting Yield 5.07% 2.54% 2.54%
Yield On Cost 37.0% 864.9% 12.9%
Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost 18.67% 436.81% 6.50%
Income Growth 9.3% 26.0% 7.8%
Total Return 5.7% 19.4% 1.9%


Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN, BTI, ENB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.


—————————————————————————————-

Dividend Kings helps you determine the best safe dividend stocks to buy via our Automated Investment Decision Tool, Zen Research Terminal, Daily Blue-Chip Deal Videos, and so much more! 

Membership also includes

  • Access to our 14 model portfolios
  • my $3 million family hedge fund (real-time email updates on trades)
  • 50% discount to iREIT (our REIT-focused sister service) 
  • real-time chatroom support
  • numerous valuable investing tools 

Click here for a two-week free trial so we can help you achieve better long-term total returns and your financial dreams.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *