Wall Street Lunch: 10,000 Times Smarter Than Humans By 2035
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Summary:
- SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son highlights Nvidia’s pivotal role in AI, predicting $9 trillion and 200 million chips needed for artificial superintelligence by 2035.
- McDonald’s, Pfizer, and F5 show positive earnings, while Ford, PayPal, and D.R. Horton face challenges, affecting their stock performances.
- Rising Treasury yields and strong consumer confidence impact market sentiment, with the 10-year yield surpassing key moving averages.
BING-JHEN HONG
Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify
Masayoshi Son predicts super AI 10,000 times smarter than humans by 2035. (0:15) Ford tumbles as its EV business struggles. (2:01) Consumer confidence up sharply. (3:29)
This is an abridged transcript of the podcast.
Our top story so far. SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY) CEO Masayoshi Son says Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is “undervalued,” adding that “hundreds of billions of dollars” will be needed to achieve artificial superintelligence.
Nvidia shares have gained 191% year-to-date and more than 2,600% over the past five years.
Speaking at the Saudi FII Summit, Son said it could take as much as $9 trillion and 200 million chips needed to achieve artificial superintelligence. Son, who is known for making extraordinary bets and calls, including SoftBank’s $100 billion Vision Fund, added that he expects AI to be 10,000 times smarter than the human brain by 2035.
He also said he was stockpiling “tens of billions of dollars” in order to make the “next big move.” In February, it was reported that the SoftBank founder was looking for investors to help with a $100 billion plan to boost the global supply of AI-focused processors.
Earnings came fast and furious in this week of big-name reports.
Among the big names and big movers, McDonald’s (MCD) shares are holding steady despite reporting global comparable sales below expectations.
On the earnings conference call, CEO Chris Kempczinski apologized for the E. Coli issue and said the outbreak appears to be contained. Crucially, he confirmed that Quarter Pounders would return to restaurants in the coming weeks. Another highlight for the quarter was that strong demand for the chain’s value meals helped U.S. comparable sales flip back to positive growth.
Pfizer (PFE) beat Street forecasts with its Q3 financials and increased its full-year outlook thanks to outperformance in its COVID-19 products.
The company increased its full-year revenue guidance to $61 billion to $64 billion and EPS to $2.75-$2.95 from $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and $2.45-$2.65.
Ford (F) is one of the day’s big losers, as continued softness in the company’s electric vehicle division and disappointing guidance overshadowed better-than-expected Q3 results.
Although the company realized a lower loss per EV ($38,350), the company’s EV division, Ford Model e, reported a wider EBIT loss of $1.2B on a 33% drop in revenue from the same quarter last year. This compares to a 13% increase in revenue for the company’s commercial division (Ford Pro) and a 3% increase in the ICE division (Ford Blue).
PayPal (PYPL) posted Q3 revenue that missed estimates and operating expenses that exceeded consensus.
It expects Q4 non-GAAP EPS to decrease in low- to mid-single digits, compared with its prior guidance of a mid-single-digit decrease. GAAP EPS is expected to be $1.03-$1.07, compared with its previous implied guidance of ~$1.05.
F5 (FFIV) is rallying after results and guidance topped expectations by a wide margin.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew Hedberg, who has a Sector Weight rating on the stock, said he is “encouraged” by the consistency of the company’s results, as well as the stronger-than-expected guidance.
And D.R. Horton (DHI) is sinking after it missed on both the top and bottom lines. The homebuilder said it expects full-year revenue of $36 billion to $37.5 billion, below estimates of $39.4 billion.
CEO Paul Romanowski said: “I don’t think this is a structural issue with demand. There’s just a lot of noise in the market… the rate volatility we’ve seen combined with the election news that’s out there.”
In today’s trading, the bond market is in focus as longer-term Treasury yields continue to rise, aided in part by a much stronger-than-expected rise in consumer confidence.
The Conference Board consumer confidence index jumped to 108.7 in October from 99.2 in September, easily surpassing the 99.5 consensus. That’s the strongest monthly advance since March 2021.
Wells Fargo economists say that “Historically, election uncertainty weighs on the moods of consumers in the months leading up to the election. Yet the election still ranks behind economic worries in consumers’ minds.”
“Write-in responses making mention to the coming general election were below both 2016 and 2020 levels. In previous election years there has been a trend decline in confidence, followed by a trend recovery after the November election. So far this year the trend is not playing out,” they added.
The 10-year Treasury yield is up again. Moving back above 4.3%. That’s a level that Goldman Sachs said last week was a line in the sand for when rates start weighing on equities.
Moreover, the 10-year has crossed back above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.
The yields move came despite a Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey—or JOLTS—report that showed a bigger tumble in openings than expected.
Job openings slid to 7.443 million in September from a revised 7.861 million in August, well below the 7.98 million consensus. The hire rate rose to 3.5% from 3.4%, while the quit rate came in at 1.9%, equal with the downwardly revised August level.
And in the Wall Street Research Corner, BofA looked at the asset classes that are loved and loathed (in market speak, overbought and oversold) so far this year.
That’s based on how much the asset is above its 200-day moving average, an indicator of stock momentum.
Among the most overbought:
Gold (GLD): Up 15.8% from its 200-day moving average.
U.S. equities (SPY) (QQQ) (DIA): up 9.1%.
Emerging market equities (EEM): up 8.2%.
Asia Pacific stocks, excluding Japan (EPP)—up 8.1%.
And U.K. equities: up 4.7%.
Among the most oversold:
And Japan equities (EWJ)—down 2.2%.
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