Intel’s results were better than feared. Wall Street says it’s not out of the woods yet.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was in focus on Friday after the semiconductor giant reported third-quarter results and guidance that were better-than-expected. Despite that, several Wall Street firms are not convinced the Pat Gelsinger-led company is out of the proverbial woods just yet.
Shares rose 6% in premarket trading, while competitors AMD (AMD), Nvidia (NVDA) and Marvell (MRVL) were up between 1% and 4%.
“At first glance, numbers look better than expected with revenue and [gross margin] higher, but the revenue growth for 4Q is from the PC client segment, adding to a market that already looked overheated after AMD’s report,” Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis wrote in a note to clients. “We estimate overall CPU shipments (INTC/AMD/ARM) at 292M units for CY24 vs a market around 270M. We now model a greater than seasonal decline in 1Q25 but there is likely now greater risk to our AMD estimate too.”
Curtis, who has a Hold rating and $23 price target on Intel, said he is likely to stay on the sidelines as Intel is likely to have issues with its 3 nanometer and 18A foundry process ramp up and provide “acceptable yields [and] costs.”
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore echoed those sentiments and said the reaction in the stock “shows just how low expectations have become, as the quarter was unremarkable, and the sense that they will stay the course was clear at mid-quarter.”
“On the more structural side, the company has said they will streamline and prioritize areas where they have incumbent leadership – x86 – which we think is the most critical element of the value creation here,” Moore wrote, adding that details were “sparse” and there are still concerns about government policy, AI accelerators and the foundry business.
“But any success in process technology that may lead to success in foundry is going to show up first,” Moore added. “We’re still on the sidelines here.” Moore kept his Equal-Weight rating but slightly tweaked his price target to $25.58 from $25.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis was a bit more positive, but he too urged caution.
“On the positive side, INTC re-committed to $17.5bn [in operating expenses in 2025] and a further OpEx dollar reduction in 2026,” Lipacis wrote. “Also positive, is that the company appears to be executing on its transistor roadmap (4 Nodes in 5 Years) and targets 2026 for material ramp of its leading 18A transistor node. On the negative side, we believe execution of the foundry opportunity would require further maturity of the ecosystem which is a lengthy process.”
“In the meantime, we stay on the sidelines and could get more constructive with 18A execution and more foundry partnership announcements,” Lipacis continued. He kept his In-Line rating and upped his price target to $26 from $25.