Palantir: Take Profits Before It’s Too Late

Summary:

• Palantir’s current valuation is unsustainable, with a forward P/E of 158x and EV/Sales multiple of 46x, well above sector averages, driven largely by AI hype.
• While Q3 results showed strong growth and improved profitability, the stock’s current price assumes flawless future execution, creating an unfavorable risk-reward scenario.
• Recent insider sales, including $1.2 billion by the CEO, and a retail-heavy shareholder base increase vulnerability to market shifts and volatility.
• Given the stretched valuation and risks, investors with gains should consider trimming positions, as current levels may not justify the stock’s elevated price.

After Q3 2024 Earnings of Palantir Technologies’ (NYSE:PLTR) I am taking a contrarian stance and initiating a Sell rating with a fair value estimate of $38.50. Because of overvaluation at its current market valuation of $60 per share, even when factoring in the substantial momentum in its artificial intelligence initiatives.

The journey of Palantir’s stock has been nothing short of remarkable, surging 687% from its May 2023 lows. While this appreciation was initially grounded in legitimate fundamental improvements, I believe the rally has now entered dangerous territory driven more by market euphoria around AI adoption than by rational valuation metrics. The current forward Non-GAAP P/E ratio of 158x and EV/Sales multiple of 46x represent premiums that are difficult to justify under any reasonable growth assumptions.

Looking at Palantir’s recent operational performance the company has undeniably executed well on its growth strategy. The third quarter of 2024 marked a significant milestone with revenue reaching $725.5 million exceeding analyst estimates by $22 million. This represented a 30% YoY growth rate, notably accelerating from previous quarters. What’s particularly impressive is the composition of this growth: U.S. commercial revenue surged 54% YoY while the traditionally stable government segment grew by a robust 40%.

The company’s transformation in profitability metrics has been even more remarkable. Free cash flow generation reached $434.5 million in Q3 representing a staggering 208% YoY increase. More importantly, free cash flow margins expanded to 60%, compared to 25% in the year-ago period, demonstrating operational leverage in the business model. This improvement in cash generation efficiency suggests that Palantir has successfully transitioned from its previous cash burning growth phase to a more sustainable financial model.

The addition of new U.S. commercial customers in Q3 alone, bringing the total commercial customer base to 498 (representing 51% YoY growth), indicates strong market acceptance of Palantir’s expanded product portfolio, particularly its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). The growth in commercial customers is especially significant, as it reduces the company’s historical dependence on government contracts and validates its ability to compete in the broader enterprise market.

However, this is where I diverge from the bullish narrative. While these operational improvements are impressive, I believe the current valuation has overshot what these fundamentals can reasonably support. The market is effectively pricing in not just continued excellence but perfect execution for years to come. Based on Wall Street’s earnings estimates, which project 17% earnings growth over the next twelve months, the forward P/E ratio of 158x is dramatically overdone. For context, this gives Palantir a PEG ratio of 6, nearly three times higher than the 2.0 level typically considered expensive.

What’s particularly concerning is the sharp disconnect between Palantir’s valuation and both its historical averages and peers. Even among high-growth software peers like Snowflake and CrowdStrike, which trade at rich valuations themselves, Palantir’s multiples stand out as extreme.

The core issue isn’t whether Palantir is a good company – it clearly is – but whether it’s a good investment at current price. The market has pushed the stock well beyond what even the most optimistic growth scenarios can justify creating a precarious situation where any slight disappointment in execution could trigger significant multiple compression. This sets up an unfavorable risk-reward dynamic that investors should carefully consider especially given the stock’s spectacular YTD appreciation.

Severe Overvaluation

The reason why I am making an argument for taking profits is mainly because of its currently inflated valuation metrics which have reached levels that are difficult to justify even under the most optimistic growth scenarios. Palantir’s current valuation ratios reveal a concerning image of the company’s fundamental value and its market price even when accounting for its impressive AI-driven growth trajectory and strong government relationships.

Palantir currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 158x, representing a staggering 500% premium to the sector median of 25.67x. This premium becomes even more pronounced when examining other key metrics. The company’s EV/Sales (FWD) multiple of 46x stands at an astronomical 1,365% above the sector median of 3.15x, while its EV/EBITDA (FWD) ratio of 118x commands a 667% premium to the sector median of just 15.5x.

When comparing Palantir to its closest peers in the enterprise software and AI space, typically high-growth software companies typically command premium valuations, but Palantir’s multiples stand out as extreme even in this context. Looking at forward P/E ratios, established players like Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) trade at 37.2x and 50.13x respectively, while even high-growth cybersecurity leader CrowdStrike trades at a lower multiple of 91.9x. Only Snowflake (SNOW), at 203x, trades at a higher forward P/E, though notably, its EV/Sales multiple of 10.56x is substantially lower than Palantir’s 46x.

The bull case for maintaining these premium valuations rests heavily on Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) and its entrenched position within government agencies. However, this argument has its own flaws. First, the company’s current 30% revenue growth rate (YoY) is impressive. The margin expansion is also impressive but faces natural limitations. Palantir has successfully transitioned from being a cash burning growth company to achieving a net income margin of nearly 20%, with free cash flow margins expanding to 60% from 25% a year ago. However, maintaining this pace of improvement will become increasingly difficult as the company scales.

Competition in the commercial space poses another significant challenge to Palantir’s premium valuation. While the company’s government relationships provide a strong moat for that segment of the business, the commercial space is highly competitive. Palantir faces formidable competition from established players like IBM, CrowdStrike (CRWD), SentinelOne (S), Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT) with deep pockets and strong AI capabilities.

My price target for (PLTR), incorporating both growth prospects and market conditions, points to a fair value estimate of $38.50 per share. This target reflects a comprehensive assessment of Palantir’s growth trajectory and earnings potential, while acknowledging the premium multiply the market has historically awarded to the company.

Using a growth adjusted valuation framework, Wall Street’s median price target of $28 per share appears plausible, implying a potential downside of 47% from current levels. Even if we use more optimistic assumptions – a 25% annual EPS growth rate and a premium forward P/E multiple of 55x – my analysis suggests a fair value of $38.50.

What makes this valuation situation particularly precarious is the high concentration of retail investors in Palantir’s shareholder base, with approximately 50% of shares held by retail investors. This ownership structure could amplify volatility in both directions, potentially leading to rapid multiple compression if market sentiment shifts or if the company faces any execution challenges in maintaining its current growth trajectory.

My methodology behind this price target, I projected Palantir’s earnings growth over the next three years, factoring in the company’s improving profitability metrics and market expansion opportunities. l assume a 25% annual EPS growth rate through 2027, which is aggressive but also aligns with the company’s transition from a growth-at-all-costs model to one focused on profitability. This growth rate factors in Wall Street’s expectations for the AI platform market, which IDC estimates will grow at 41% annually through 2028, but Palantir’s scale will make maintaining hypergrowth increasingly challenging.

Applying this growth rate to current earnings projections yields an estimated FY 2027 EPS of $0.70 per share. The target multiple of 55x forward earnings, while rich by broad market standards but because of Palantir’s historical premium position within the enterprise software sector. Even this generous multiple represents a significant compression from current levels.

The downside risk scenario deserves particular attention, especially given current market conditions. In a broader market downturn or during periods of multiple compression, Palantir’s stock could face substantially more pressure than my base case. During market stress periods, high multiple software stocks often see their valuations compress to levels that would imply a price below $20 per share for Palantir. This risk is amplified by the company’s shareholder composition, as I mentioned earlier 50% of shares held by retail investors potentially leading to more volatile trading during market distress.

Insider Sales

The recent pattern of insider selling at Palantir is a significant red flag that investors cannot afford to ignore. According to Jefferies’ analysis,

Palantir’s CEO having sold more than $1.2 billion of stock in the past three months, representing approximately 14% of his stake.

While it’s common for executives to maintain pre-planned selling programs through 10b5-1 plans, both the magnitude and timing of these sales warrant careful scrutiny. The uptick in insider sales becomes particularly noteworthy when viewed against the backdrop of Palantir’s broader risk/reward profile, which has shifted dramatically following the stock’s 687% surge from its May 2023 lows.

Looking at near term catalysts, Palantir faces several challenges that could trigger multiple compression. The company’s government business, while strong at 40% YoY growth, may face growth constraints due to budget limitations. As noted in their recent 10-Q filing, Palantir acknowledges that

Until recent quarters, we had a history of incurring net losses, and we anticipate our operating expenses will continue to increase and we may not be able to achieve or maintain profitability in the future – PLTR Q3 10-Q Filing

This caution from management stands in stark contrast to the market’s current optimistic pricing. While Palantir’s AIP platform shows promise, the commercial market’s higher churn risk and more competitive dynamics could pressure growth rates. These risk factors, combined with the current valuation premiums and accelerating insider sales, create an asymmetric risk/reward profile that tilts heavily toward risk at current price levels. While the stock could certainly continue its momentum-driven rally in the near term, the fundamental support for current valuations appears increasingly tenuous, suggesting investors should seriously consider taking profits and reducing exposure to more reasonable levels.

Time to Take Profits

While I am impressed by Palantir’s execution and long-term potential, the risk/reward profile at current levels is simply unattractive. The combination of:

• Extreme valuation premiums across all metrics

• Increasing insider sales

• High retail investor concentration (about 50% of float)

Creates a potentially volatile situation where any slight disappointment could trigger significant multiple compression.

For investors sitting on substantial gains, I believe now is an opportune time to at least trim positions and lock in profits. The stock’s momentum could certainly continue in the near term, but the downside risks now outweigh the potential for further upside. In my view, waiting for a better entry point would be the prudent strategy for those looking to initiate or add to positions.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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