Apple iPhone October carrier survey results surpass expectations: KeyBanc

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 16 sell-throughs during October came in higher than expected, according to a survey by KeyBanc Capital Markets.

iPhone sales increased 8% year over year during October, according to the survey.

“Our carrier checks indicate sell-through for the iPhone 16 slightly increased month over month in October,” said KeyBanc analysts John Vinh and Brandon Nispel, in an investor note. “While there were mixed results, in aggregate, sell-through is tracking in line with to slightly above store expectations and normal seasonal trends. The iPhone 16 Pro Max is seeing the greatest demand, followed by the Pro, owing to the camera upgrades.”

However, the survey showed little consumer interests in Apple Intelligence, which is Apple’s artificial intelligence offering.

“Apple AI remained a non-factor, as consumer interest in the new AI features was low, and there were only a few inquiries about these advancements,” Vinh added.

KeyBanc maintains its Underweight rating on Apple and a $200 price target.

Apple shares have declined nearly 3% over the past month.

“We believe investors are already writing off the iPhone 16 and the upgrade cycle, despite their enthusiasm just a few months ago,” Nispel said. “That said, we think consensus expectations still have not reset to appropriate levels and continue to call for meaningful inflections in growth in FY25/FY26, which we believe is aggressive.”

KeyBanc also expects the new iPhone SE 4 will be “cannibalistic to iPhone 16 sales when it launches.” The SE 4, which is slated for release in 2025, likely March or April, is expected to cost around $499, making it more affordable than the iPhone 16.