Apple, supply chain in focus as KeyBanc weighs in on Black Friday, November data

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and some members of its supply chain were in focus on Friday as KeyBanc Capital Markets weighed in on several recent data points, including a “slightly positive” November iPhone carrier survey and Black Friday shopping weekend.

Shares of the Tim Cook-led Apple were little changed in premarket trading.

“Our carrier survey indicates iPhone 16 sell-through in November was tracking slightly above store expectations and normal seasonal trends,” analysts John Vinh and Brandon Nispel wrote in a note to clients. “Demand for the iPhone 16 Pro/Max remained relatively healthy, but the base models were still weaker. Store inventories increased slightly and remain relatively healthy (under two DOI) and below prior-year levels. Interest in Apple AI was slightly higher but generally remained a non-factor in driving near-term demand.”

KeyBanc has an Underweight rating and $200 price target on Apple.

The research firm’s First Look Data showed a 2% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year increase for the iPhone, while below seasonal trends, still grew, the analysts noted. And Black Friday saw a 9% year-over-year increase.

That batch of data is seen as “modestly positive” for part of Apple’s supply chain, including Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Qorvo (QRVO) and Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS), the analysts said.

For Apple itself, the data may be slightly negative the analysts said, as the data showed indexed spending down 6% month-over-month in November, below the three-year average of a 3% increase.

“We’re seeing historical trends suggest no iPhone 16 upgrade bump, and don’t see any comparability issues with the data considering AAPL launched a new MacBook Pro at a similar date this November as last year,” the analysts wrote.

“Overall, our data is modestly negative, and we expect to see [approximately] in-line growth in F4Q24 vs. AAPL’s historical averages.”