Copper prices, global miners jump as China pledges to ramp up monetary stimulus
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Copper prices jumped to their highest in nearly a month after top China said it would adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy next year, the government’s first easing of its stance since 2010, as well as a more proactive fiscal policy to spark economic growth.
Analysts say China’s new wording for monetary policy points to strong fiscal stimulus, significant rate cuts and asset buying in 2025, while showing confidence against U.S. President-elect Trump’s threats of tariffs.
Among relevant base metals producers, Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) +4.7%, Southern Copper (SCCO) +6.6%, Buenaventura (EVN) +8.1%, Teck Resources (TECK) +5%, Rio Tinto (RIO) +5%, BHP (BHP) +5.2%, Vale (VALE) +5.8%, Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) +7.8%.
Other potentially relevant stocks include Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF) (OTCPK:GLNCY), Anglo American (OTCQX:AAUKF) (OTCQX:NGLOY), Antofagasta (OTC:ANFGF) and Ivanhoe Mines (OTCQX:IVPAF).
The moves come even as Citi analysts cut their copper price forecast, believing potential trade tariffs from the new Trump administration in the U.S. and economic risks in China likely will drag on consumption and prices next year.
Citi sees London copper averaging $8,750/ton in 2025, down from a prior forecast of $10,250, noting a restrictive monetary environment in developed economies, as well as easing policy support for electric vehicles, would delay a recovery in global manufacturing activity beyond 2025.
Copper prices may rise to $10K/ton in 2026 as global manufacturing activity eventually responds to monetary easing, the bank said.
Citi also lowered tis outlook for other metals, with aluminum’s 2025 outlook cut by ~4% to $2,640/ton and zinc’s trimmed by ~5% to $2,800/ton.