Tesla Robotaxi: Potentially $1.3 Trillion Of Incremental Enterprise Value In 2030

Summary:

• I previously voiced a negative opinion on Tesla, Inc. stock, but I must now acknowledge the potential of Tesla’s robotaxi business, reflecting on progress achieved through FSD 1.
• Estimating robotaxi economics involves calculating fixed and variable costs, with a break-even revenue of $14,000/year and a target profit of $10,000/year.
• A robotaxi needs to earn $0.48/mile to hit a $10,000 annual profit, which is competitive compared to current ride-hailing rates in cities like San Francisco.
• Tesla could partner with Uber or Lyft, netting $0.75/mile after a 25% commission, resulting in a $14,125 annual profit per vehicle.
• Building on reasonable assumptions. According to my estimates, the robotaxi business line could potentially add $1.3 trillion of enterprise value to Tesla by 2030.

In August this year, I voiced a negative opinion on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock, arguing that I see a “weak AI promise on top of a struggling EV business.” Since the publication of the article, Tesla shares have

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