Michael Derrer Fuchs
Research firm IDC cut its forecast for smartphone shipments this year, citing significant economic uncertainty stemming from a number of factors, including tariffs.
“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty,” IDC senior research director Nabila Popal said in a statement, referring to the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.
“While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” Popal added. “Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariffs hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts.”
IDC now expects worldwide smartphone shipments — which includes those made by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and others — to rise just 0.6% year-over-year to 1.24B units, down from a prior view of 2.3% growth.
Popal said that tariff concerns on countries such as India, Vietnam and China could wind up posing “a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.”
Delving deeper, IDC said that the U.S. and China are largely responsible for the 0.6% growth, but China is expected to see 3% year-over-year growth, due largely to government subsidies. This is expected to largely benefit Android (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) devices, while Apple could see increased competition from companies like Huawei and other Chinese smartphone manufacturers.
Apple is expected to see a 1.9% year-over-year decline in iPhone shipments in 2025, IDC said, citing increased competition, an economic slowdown and the fact that Chinese government subsidies are capped at 6,000 yuan.
While Apple’s iPhone shipments are expected to decline, the upcoming 618 shopping festivals in China, along with recent increases in trade-in discounts and the upcoming iPhone 17 release later this year could boost demand, IDC added.
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