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Counterpoint Research cut its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% year-over-year from 4.2%, citing renewed uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs.
However, most regions will still likely see growth, except North America and China, the report added.
In April, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs of products from countries globally which sent ripples across the U.S. tech sector. However, the U.S. suspended the tariffs on smartphones and other electronic devices as part of a broader 90-day pause.
“All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia,” said Associate Director Liz Lee.
North America is expected to decline due to expected price increases from tariffs and China has been revised down to near-flat year-over-year growth on weaker-than-expected market reaction to the government’s subsidy program, according to the report.
The report added that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Samsung Electronics’ (OTCPK:SSNLF) growth projections have been cut as cost increases are expected to be passed on to consumers, hurting demand. This despite some easing of the tariff burden compared to earlier worst-case scenarios, the report noted.
“We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple driven by the iPhone 16 series’ strong performance in Q1 2025. Moreover, premiumization trends remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and GCC – these are long-term tailwinds for iPhones,” said Lee.
Huawei Technologies, which has given tough competition to Apple in the Chinese smartphone market, is expected to show 11%year-over-year in 2025 higher than any other brand.
Huawei leads the 2025 top five global smartphone brands by year-over-year shipment growth, followed by Motorola, Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) (OTCPK:XIACY), realme. Apple is expected to show a 3% year-over-year growth in smartphone shipments globally in 2025, as per the report.
“The bright spot this year – again – will likely be Huawei. We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home,” said Associate Director Ethan Qi.
Last month, research firm IDC cut its forecast for smartphone shipments this year, citing significant economic uncertainty stemming from a number of factors, including tariffs.