Super Micro to report Q4 results as AI tailwinds meet margin pressures

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, August 5th, after market close, with analysts expecting solid year-over-year revenue growth but showing caution on near-term earnings momentum.

The consensus EPS estimate stands at $0.44 (-29.78% Y/Y), while revenue is projected at $5.91 billion, marking an 11.3% increase from the same period last year. Despite the top-line growth, sentiment appears more cautious heading into the print.

In the past 90 days, EPS estimates have been revised downward 12 times, with no upward revisions. Revenue estimates have also seen ten cuts and only one upward revision, reflecting tempered expectations possibly tied to order visibility, supply chain factors, or margin concerns.

Historically, SMCI has delivered strong earnings consistency, beating EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue 75% of the time over the past two years.

The market expects solid revenue growth for the chipmaker’s final quarter, but is cautious about earnings due to margin pressures. Investors will be especially keen on Super Micro’s (NASDAQ:SMCI) ability to capitalize on AI demand while managing costs and supply chain risks.

The company lowered its 2025 revenue guidance range last quarter, expecting full-year revenue of $21.8B-$22.6B, down from $23.5B-$25B prior.

FQ3 revenue was $4.6 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase but a 19% sequential decline. The decrease was attributed to delayed customer decisions amidst the technology transition.

Analysts had expressed concern about macroeconomic impacts, technology transitions, and tariff uncertainties at the time, reflecting a slightly negative tone.

Despite recent margin pressures, SA contributor Oakoff Investments remains positive of Super Micro’s (NASDAQ:SMCI) Q4 story, driven by “robust AI demand, new product launches, and global expansion.”

“SMCI’s recent margin pressures and Q3 reset have set a low bar for Q4, creating a high probability for a double-beat on revenue and EPS,” Oakoff Investments adds.

Super Micro (SMCI) is up just over 93% YTD, outperforming S&P 500’s 7.4% rise.