Bank of America sees1-1.5% growth in 2025, no recession, no rate cuts, BofA CEO says

“Our economists believe there will be no recession,” expecting the U.S. economy to grow by 1%-1.5% this year, Bank of America Chairman and CEO Brian Moynihan said in a broadcast interview on Tuesday.

They also don’t expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the rest of the year. Instead, they see cuts coming in 2026, he said during an interview on CNBC.

The tariffs are slowing growth, but not stopping it, he noted.

While consumers paused spending in May due to the “Liberation Day” tariffs, they resumed purchases in June and accelerated the pace in July, he said, citing Bank of America data.

“For the month of July 2025 vs. the month of July 2024, our consumers pushed 5% more-plus in the economy from their accounts,” Moynihan said. That spending includes “credit card, debit card, checks written, cash out of ATMs, Zelle payments, wire, ACH.”

That shows that consumers are “still in the game and pushing,” he said.

“Credit quality of our customers is very strong,” he added. “The capacity to be able to borrow is high.”

Meanwhile, in looking at the labor market, BofA economists expect that the “supply of labor is going to constrain job growth, not the demand for labor,” Moynihan said. The labor market is currently still relatively strong, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, which is considered better than full employment.