Tesla Obviously Had A Disappointing Quarter, Expect More Pain
Contributor since 2015 / 30013 Followers
Summary:
- Tesla grew production and sales, but it appears that the company needs to maintain price cuts to grow.
- The company is rapidly seeing increased competition from both new companies at the top end and existing car companies ramping up production.
- We see 2023 as a transition year, as other companies ramp up their production. That should cause Tesla’s margins to decline, hurting the company’s profits.
- Regardless of the company’s margins, it’s already severely overvalued in a variety of margins, making it a poor investment.
Xiaolu Chu
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock dropped more than 6% Monday after the company’s recent press release once again raised concerns that additional price cuts are in the future. That’s despite the company’s strong 25.9% gross margins, which investors point to as evidence of the company’s financial strength and unique pricing power.
Tesla’s Q1 2023 Deliveries
Tesla achieved strong deliveries in the first quarter. However, the company produced more than it delivered.
Tesla Press Release
The company produced just under 441 thousand vehicles in the first quarter and managed to deliver about 95% of them. QoQ Model S/X, the company’s high-end vehicle, saw production only drop 5%, but deliveries crumpled by almost 40%. That shows a lack of demand for the company’s top-end vehicles, especially with price cuts.
We expect Model S/X deliveries and demand to remain muted as high-margin competition arrives first through new companies such as Rivian (RIVN), Polestar (PSNY), and Lucid (LCID) along with established companies like BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) and Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGAF). That lines up with our expectation that Tesla would see competition first at the top end of its portfolio, the same place that Tesla was able to start.
Tesla’s Pricing Cuts
The top story for Tesla has been the company’s continued price cuts on its vehicles.
USA Today
Tesla cut the prices of its vehicles by as much as 20% in January, and in March it cut the prices of its Model S and X between 4-9%. The company has record margins, but the more it needs to cut prices, the more that it cuts into those margins. Unfortunately for Tesla, even if it’s better than the competition, new competition lowers margins.
That can be seen in classic carmakers. Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC) are widely considered to have the best reliability, and yet they don’t dominate the entire market. There’s other competition and pricing pressure. That’s worth paying close attention to as an investor.
Tesla’s Rising Competition
Tesla is facing rising competition from its market share even as vehicle production goes up.
Inside EVs
Tesla’s registrations went up 34% YoY as the U.S. market faced more competition versus last year. Significant U.S. competition also caused the market to grow slower than the global markets. The company now has a 57% market share, with its second-largest competitor Chevrolet (GM) having an 8.5% share and Ford having a 7.7% share.
We expect the company’s competition to continue increasing its share. Rivian, for example, increased its market share by almost 300% YoY. It’s also worth noting that Tesla likely saw an uptick in demand from its price increases, an uptick in demand that we don’t expect to continue.
2023 – A Tesla Transition Year
2023 is a transition year for Tesla. The company’s competitors have come up with their models, and they’re working to rapidly ramp up production.
Rivian expects to produce 50 thousand vehicles in 2023, double 2022. Ford (F) plans to exit 2023 at more than 360 thousand vehicles/year in production, up from just under 62 thousand in 2022. Lucid is aiming to produce 12 thousand vehicles in 2023. Polestar is aiming to hit 80 thousand vehicles in 2023, up from 50 thousand in 2022.
BMW is looking to triple its EV production in 2023 to almost 50 thousand vehicles. Each of these vehicles, especially on the upper end, will push down Tesla’s margins substantially. That could hurt its ability to justify its valuations. Assuming its margins drop, that could crater its share price, by showing the market how overvalued the company is.
At the same time, Tesla’s other businesses aren’t anywhere exciting yet. The company’s solar business has a negligible market share, and it’s to-date nowhere near releasing full self-driving. The company’s most exciting business is the megapack, but it needs those battery packs for its own vehicles and its margins on the megapack are lower.
Our View
Tesla is overvalued.
In 2022, the company had $81 billion in revenue, $20 billion in gross profit, and $12.5 billion in net income. The company has a market capitalization of more than $600 billion. That’s a P/E of 50 on net income, or 30 on gross profits. The company did manage to grow profits 50% YoY but as we discussed above we expect margins to drop.
That could hurt the company’s ability to justify its valuation substantially and cause its share price to decline.
Thesis Risk
The largest risk to our thesis is Tesla’s value as an independent brand. Assuming the company remains popular, and demand remains high, higher margins could result in higher profits. Even in that case, we don’t see the company managing to justify its valuation. However, it’s worth paying close attention to.
Conclusion
Tesla, Inc. is dramatically overvalued. The company is trading at 8x sales and 50x net income. The company is supported by its strong margins, but new competition is rapidly ramping up its production, with most companies expecting to double to triple production in 2023. At a minimum, that will put strong pressure on margins.
We expect that pressure on margins to cause Tesla, Inc.’s profits to drop substantially. That’s even when counting the company’s 50% annualized anticipated production growth. We expect the company’s market share to continue to decline. As a result, we recommend against investing in Tesla, Inc. stock for the long run.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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