The NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday night with a high-profile matchup between the defending Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. The first game of the season also marks the beginning of the busiest time of year for sports betting.
The rise of prediction markets as an alternative to traditional sports betting in casinos or through apps is of high interest this year. Notably, Polymarket was given the green light to go live again in the U.S. just ahead of the NFL season.
Meanwhile, Kalshi submitted a new type of contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that includes multiple parts and payouts determined by multiplying the odds of each component of the bet. In its filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi defined contract “outcomes” as a set of specific achievements, results, or events specified that may include game outcomes, player statistics, team statistics, championships, awards, season statistics, playoff outcomes, draft outcomes, and milestones. That broad definition opens the door for contracts that resemble parlay or prop bets made on sports betting apps.
In another related development, Crypto.com and Underdog Sports are reportedly forming a partnership to launch sports prediction markets across 16 U.S. states. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) is also in the mix after prediction markets for college and pro football.
While prediction markets are not yet considered a substantial threat to established sports betting operators, the companies do have the ability to operate in states that have not legalized sports betting, such as California, Texas, and Florida.
Americans are expected to place an estimated $30 billion in legal sports bets on the upcoming 2025 NFL season through U.S. sportsbooks, according to a forecast from the American Gaming Association. That tally would be an 8.5% increase over last season’s revised estimated handle of $27.6 billion on NFL games. The estimate includes preseason games, futures booked as early as March, the playoffs, and Super Bowl LX in February of 2026.
As of the 2025 NFL season kickoff, legal sports betting is available in 38 states plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Missouri is the only new state approved for legal sports betting compared to a year ago, but its launch date of December 1 is well after the NFL season starts. The roughly direct comparison to a year ago means most of the growth in the U.S. sports betting market will be organic.
Stocks with ties to sports betting include DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT), MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM), Caesars Interactive (CZR), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Penn Entertainment (PENN), Bally’s Interactive (BALY), Sportradar (SRAD), Genius Sports (GENI), GAN Limited (GAN), Churchill Downs (CHDN), and Boyd Gaming (BYD). Privately owned Fanatics, Bet365, Circa Sports, and Hard Rock International are also active in sports betting in the U.S.