The eight-day Golden Week holiday in China led to record-breaking travel numbers, according to forecasts based on public data. Over 2.36 billion passenger journeys were anticipated, representing a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year, and both domestic and international travel numbers reflected a robust rebound in consumer demand and mobility. Travel intent was especially strong, with domestic trip interest rising 30% and outbound travel growing by 40%.
Retail and catering sales were estimated to have increased by 3.3% compared to the previous year during Golden Week, which was a pace below the sales growth seen during the May Labor Day holiday. Reports indicate that even at popular destinations such as Macau and Shanghai Disneyland (DIS), consumers were taking a value-driven approach to spending.
“For consumption overall, the momentum or underlying impulse is not that strong,” highlighted Goldman Sachs China Economist Hui Shan. “You see a lot of traffic, but you don’t see a ton of spending,” added Shan.
Analysts noted that the clearest beneficiaries of Golden Week were travel, airline, and hospitality companies. Major travel platforms, like Trip.com (TRIP), reported surging demand for outbound and premium travel bookings, which in turn drove up business for hotels and airlines. The high-end travel sector benefited significantly as more travelers chose upscale hotels and holiday packages in a potential boost to H World Group (HTHT) and premium hospitality providers.
E-commerce giants Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) are expected to have performed better for the Golden Week holiday than high-value merchandise sellers due to the restrained level of spending reported across regions.
Jefferies analyst Anne Ling estimated that Macau casinos saw a 2% year-over-year increase in gross gaming revenue for Golden Week. “Two typhoons have dampened the full week’s expectations, but we point to a strong end to the 2024 holiday as an avenue to potentially deliver further growth,” wrote Ling. The firm has Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF) and Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY) circled as top picks in the sector.
Official data on spending during Golden Week will be released next week.