Earnings Call Insights: NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 2025
Management View
- John Ketchum, President, CEO & Chairman, stated that “NextEra Energy delivered strong third quarter results with adjusted earnings per share increasing 9.7% year-over-year.” He emphasized the company’s positioning in the “golden age of power demand,” highlighting NextEra Energy’s ability to develop, build, and operate all forms of energy infrastructure across the U.S.
- Ketchum outlined a four-year plan for Florida Power & Light (FPL) to invest approximately $40 billion in new energy infrastructure, including 5.3 gigawatts in solar, 3.4 gigawatts in battery storage, and a gas peaker plant pending regulatory approvals. He also noted the company’s proposed four-year rate agreement, with a midpoint regulatory return on equity of 10.95% and an equity ratio of 59.6%.
- The CEO announced a 25-year power purchase agreement with Google to recommission the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa, stating, “The 615-megawatt plant is just the beginning and will help power Google’s growing cloud and AI infrastructure in Iowa…” He added that the plant is expected to return to operation “no later than the first quarter of 2029 and perhaps as early as the fourth quarter of 2028.”
- Ketchum highlighted the company’s national footprint with nearly 30 gigawatts in renewables and storage backlog, and the ability to serve data center and hyperscaler customers with a comprehensive portfolio of generation and transmission solutions.
- Michael Dunne, CFO, reported, “For the third quarter of 2025, FPL’s earnings per share increased by $0.08 year-over-year. The principal driver of this performance was FPL’s regulatory capital employed growth of approximately 8% year-over-year… FPL’s capital expenditures were approximately $2.5 billion for the quarter, and we expect FPL’s full year capital investments to be between $9.3 billion and $9.8 billion.”
Outlook
- Management reiterated unchanged long-term financial expectations and stated, “We will be disappointed if we’re not able to deliver financial results at or near the top end of our adjusted earnings per share expectation ranges in 2025, 2026 and 2027.” They also expect dividend per share growth at roughly 10% per year through at least 2026 off a 2024 base.
- Ketchum projected that the Duane Arnold plant, once restarted, “will contribute up to $0.16 of annual adjusted EPS on average over its first 10 years of operation.”
- The company expects the Florida Public Service Commission to provide a final decision on FPL’s proposed rate settlement agreement on November 20.
Financial Results
- Adjusted earnings per share increased 9.7% year-over-year for the quarter and 9.3% year-over-year for the first nine months.
- FPL’s reported return on equity for regulatory purposes was approximately 11.7% for the twelve months ending September 2025.
- FPL’s third quarter retail sales decreased 1.8% from the prior year comparable period due to milder weather, but increased 1.9% on a weather-normalized basis.
- Energy Resources segment reported adjusted earnings growth of approximately 13% year-over-year and added 3 gigawatts to the renewables and storage backlog.
- The company reversed about $218 million of reserve amortization, leaving a balance of roughly $473 million.
Q&A
- Steven Fleishman, Wolfe Research: Asked about the cost of restarting Duane Arnold and the 30% buy-in price. John Ketchum responded that the CapEx number was not disclosed but expressed confidence in efficient recommissioning and clarified the buyout was in exchange for assuming decommissioning liability: “we have more than ample decommissioning funds that had already been set aside.”
- Fleishman asked about the removal of 1 gigawatt from the backlog. Ketchum explained, “We removed 650 megawatts from backlog… for various development reasons… we’re going to get it all back in ’26 and ’27… another 250 megawatts that we just had a little bit of a permitting delay on.”
- Shahriar Pourreza, Wells Fargo: Asked for qualitative commentary on Duane Arnold’s plant condition. Ketchum stated, “having the same team that did the decommissioning, leading the recommissioning is an enormous advantage… the facility is… in really good shape.”
- Pourreza asked about next wave of deals moving to CCGTs. Ketchum responded, “we have many ways to grow… through new gas-fired technology… we’ve got a lot of experience at it,” and referenced a “20-gigawatt pipeline already developed.”
- Nicholas Campanella, Barclays: Asked about nuclear strategy and long-term growth outlook. Ketchum highlighted focus on SMR and restarts, and indicated further details would be provided at the December 8 investor conference.
- Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies: Inquired about contracted gas strategy and cadence of new announcements. Ketchum described “a lot in the hopper” with more details expected to be shared in December.
- Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs: Asked about demand pull forward and backlog timing. Ketchum noted, “the pull forward of demand… just escalates as you get closer to 2030… we look at our financial plan for ’26 and ’27 in good shape,” and expects strong positioning for ’28, ’29, and ’30.
Sentiment Analysis
- Analysts asked probing questions about backlog removals, CapEx uncertainties, nuclear strategy, and development timelines, indicating a neutral to slightly positive tone with interest in growth opportunities and risk management rather than skepticism.
- Management maintained a confident tone, repeatedly emphasizing competitive advantages, robust backlog, and multiple growth pathways. Ketchum used phrases like “we feel very good about our ability,” “I have no concerns,” and “we are in really, really good shape,” signaling high confidence.
- Compared to the previous quarter, both analysts and management remained focused on execution and growth, with management demonstrating increased confidence due to recent strategic announcements and regulatory clarity.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- Guidance and dividend growth expectations remained unchanged relative to the prior quarter.
- The third quarter featured the announcement of the Google partnership for the Duane Arnold nuclear plant, a new strategic direction compared to the prior quarter’s focus on renewables and storage origination.
- Management’s tone was more assertively optimistic, with Ketchum highlighting expanded national opportunities and a strong backlog, while in the previous quarter the tone was constructive but more cautious regarding regulatory and policy challenges.
- Analysts’ focus shifted from regulatory and tax policy impacts in Q2 to execution risks and capacity for scaling up in Q3.
Risks and Concerns
- Management acknowledged permitting delays and development risk, with Ketchum noting 650 megawatts were removed from backlog for “various development reasons” and 250 megawatts due to permitting delays, but expressed confidence in recapturing these projects in future years.
- Ketchum stated the company would “be very disciplined in our capital allocation strategy and making sure that we have the right commercial and financial structure where we limit any financial exposure” for advanced nuclear investments.
- Analysts raised questions about CapEx transparency for major projects and the competitive landscape for large-scale energy infrastructure.
Final Takeaway
NextEra Energy delivered strong third quarter results, reaffirmed its long-term earnings and dividend growth targets, and highlighted a $40 billion infrastructure investment plan for Florida. The company announced a landmark 25-year partnership with Google to recommission the Duane Arnold nuclear plant, illustrating its strategic pivot toward serving data center and hyperscaler demand. With a nearly 30-gigawatt renewables and storage backlog, a robust balance sheet, and a national development platform, management expressed high confidence in sustaining growth through the end of the decade and beyond, positioning the company as a leader in meeting America’s evolving electricity needs.