Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said during his keynote address at its GTC event in Washington, D.C., they have visibility into $500B in GPU sales through the end of 2026, even without China, but some analysts believe this figure could go higher.
Bank of America analysts said the $500B assumes that every gigawatt of data center capacity equates to about $25B and amounts to 20 GW, but that figure could be higher.
“NVDA’s $0.5T in CY25/26E (roughly FY26/27) data center orders are: 1) at least 10% above the $446bn consensus, 2) based on conservative $25bn/GW content (company aligned revenues with 20 GW of deployed capacity),” said BofA analysts, led by Vivek Arya, in an investor note. “This assumption is lower than NVDA recent roadshows slides where $30-$40bn/GW content (out of $50-$60bn in total capex) is targeted for every GW of compute power.”
What’s more, Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress confirmed with BofA analysts that this figure incorporates zero sales to China, so any resolution there could provide upside.
“Later this week US/China leaders are scheduled to meet,” Arya said. “We are not geopolitical forecasters but one potential scenario is for NVDA, and AMD (AMD), to get the proposal to resume shipments of their GPUs to China. However, China has already indicated they are not as interested in capable, though older-gen products. Hence, unless the US/China talks explicitly indicate approvals for newer-gen NVDA Blackwell-class products, we assume China data center contribution is effectively zero.”
BofA reiterated its “top pick” Buy rating on Nvidia and increased its price target on the stock to $275 from $235.
D.A. Davidson also reiterated its Buy rating and increased its price target to $250 from $210 following the GTC DC.
“Management stated that they expect the Blackwell/Rubin generations in 2025/26 to generate $500B of revenue off of 20M GPUs sold, with 6M GPUs already shipped, with consensus estimating data center revenue through that time period at approximately $366B; guidance that’s now ~37% above where consensus is,” said D.A. Davidson analysts Gil Luria and Alexander Platt in an investor note. “That being said, we do not believe that the market is appropriately pricing in the upside to these numbers.”
Meanwhile, Melius Research also reiterated its Buy rating and increased its target price to $300 from $275. This is just below the highest street target set. Earlier this month, HSBC increased its target to $320 from $300.