Pfizer (PFE) is set to report its Q3 earnings on Tuesday, November 4, before the market opens. Wall Street expects earnings of $0.64 per share, down 39.6% year-over-year, on revenue of $16.52 billion, a 6.7% decline from last year.
The drugmaker has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates in each of the past eight quarters, though it has only topped revenue expectations 63% of the time.
Analysts have turned more cautious ahead of the release, with 15 downward EPS revisions and 10 downward revenue revisions over the last three months, signaling tempered expectations as Pfizer continues to navigate post-COVID demand normalization.
Pfizer (PFE) shares have fallen over 7% YTD, underperforming the benchmark’s 16% rise. “Pfizer’s stock is poised for recovery, driven by recent corporate news and a three-year reprieve on drug-import tariffs from the Trump administration,” said Oakoff Investments, Investing Group Leader for Beyond the Wall Investing.
In late September, Pfizer agreed to offer four prescription drugs—including its blockbuster arthritis treatment Xeljanz—at discounts of up to 85% through TrumpRx, a new platform launched under Trump’s most-favored-nation (MFN) pricing policy. Following this, the company announced a $70 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing and R&D, secured in exchange for a three-year exemption from drug-import tariffs.
“Upcoming Q3 earnings, are expected to provide clarity on oncology progress and the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff decision, potentially leading to meaningful earnings revisions. Pfizer’s deal with TrumpRx, offering drug discounts and committing $70 billion in U.S. manufacturing/R&D, reduces regulatory uncertainty and should attract new investors as guidance is met,” Oakoff Investments added.
Investors will also watch for updates on Pfizer’s disputed Metsera (MTSR) deal after Novo Nordisk (NVO) outbid its $4.9B offer with a $9B bid valuing Metsera at $77.75 per share. Pfizer has since filed lawsuits against both Metsera and Novo, arguing the acquisition would be anticompetitive and reinforce Novo’s dominance in the GLP-1 obesity drug market.