McDonald’s (MCD) is set to announce third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and investors will watch for the Chicago-based company’s same-store sales as well as growth in its digital loyalty program.
Wall Street expects the fast-food chain to post EPS of $3.33, implying a 3.1% increase, while revenue is expected to increase 3.2% to $7.09 billion during the quarter.
In 2023, it set a goal of reaching 250 million 90-day active loyalty users by the end of 2027. The company, in its Q2 earnings call, stated that it reached more than 185 million 90-day active users across 60 loyalty markets.
Seeking Alpha analyst Samuel Smith highlighted that the loyalty member program is bringing on significant new revenue for the company, validating, at least to some extent, the effectiveness of these AI-driven initiatives.
“If MCD can effectively grow loyalty member sales from $30 billion in 2024 to a 50% increase to $45 billion in 2027, it would serve as a strong indicator that its AI-powered marketing initiatives are paying off. This would not only benefit franchisees, but it would also benefit MCD’s bottom line as well,” added Smith.
Investors will also gauge low-income consumer traffic after the fast-food chain reintroduced its Extra Value Meals, as U.S. consumers continue to pull back on spending.
“The company is lowering prices on some of their more premium meal offerings (e.g. Big Mac) which may not address low-income consumer challenges, whose traffic has been down by double digits for three quarters in a row given there’s already lower-priced value offerings on the menu following the January launch of McValue platform,” highlighted RBC Capital analyst Logan Reich, who rated the stock Sector Perform, with a price target of $320.
Over the last two years, MCD has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time.
Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen eight upward revisions against 20 downward moves, while revenue estimates have seen 15 upward revisions versus eight downward revisions.
Seeking Alpha’s Quant and Seeking Alpha analysts have rated the company as a Hold, while Wall Street analysts have recommended the company as a Buy.
McDonald’s stock has largely underperformed in 2025, lagging the broader market amid concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty. MCD shares have grown 2.25% YTD, compared to S&P 500’s 16.5% rise.