As Disney (DIS) gears up for fiscal fourth quarter results and FY26 guidance this week, the entertainment giant is contending with a high-stakes carriage dispute with YouTube TV (GOOG), impact to its parks division from a tough macro environment, and potential tariff headwinds, all of which investors will be watching closely.
On Thursday, November 13th, Disney (DIS) is expected to report a profit of $1.02 per share on $22.78B in sales in the quarter ending September 30th, a change of -10% and +0.9% from a year ago.
While Disney (DIS) management has been relatively successful at managing costs and the company has beat profit guidance nine quarters in a row — suggesting street estimates are too conservative — Q4 could be the outlier given the mixed performance of its movie studio and anemic spending at its theme parks.
“[Revenue growth deceleration] can be explained by a macro environment where consumers aren’t very eager to spend money on experiences, discretionary consumer goods, and so on,” said Seeking Alpha analyst Jonathan Weber, investing group leader for Cash Flow Club, noting that investors will care more about the company’s profit performance as this is the source of dividends, stock buybacks, and how Disney pays back it debt.
The quarter will also include the August launch of ESPN Unlimited, Disney’s (DIS) standalone streaming sports package. While the streaming service is expected to result in 3 million subscribers by the end of FY26 (in September), it has also fueled a dispute with YouTube TV (GOOG) over pricing and fees that could adversely impact FY26 guidance.
Disney (DIS) raised the carriage fees for its full lineup of ESPN channels, local ABC stations, and Disney programming, citing the cost of delivering “the best talent, creators, and content in the world.” YouTube TV (GOOG) pushed back, and the blackout between the two has now stretched into its second week.
Morgan Stanley’s Benjamin Swinburne and Thomas Yeh estimate this has cost Disney (DIS) $4.3M per day in lost YouTube (GOOG) revenue, or $0.02 per share each week Disney (DIS) goes dark on YouTube.
“For FY26 we are layering in 14 days of impact from the ongoing YouTube TV blackout, which we estimate is a $60 million revenue headwind,” Swinburne and Yeh said in their note to clients.
Accordingly, the analysts expect Disney to guide “conservatively” for FY26. Swinburne and Yeh see adjusted FY26 EPS at $6.70, roughly 3% above consensus estimates.