Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng (XPEV) is expected to post a 100% year-on-year jump in its third-quarter revenue. The company is scheduled to report earnings on November 14, before the opening bell.
Revenue is expected to come in around $2.87 billion in this quarter. The company is likely to register a loss per share of -$0.07 on the revenue, a nealy 70% improvement from the year-ago period. Over the last 2 years, XPEV has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time.
Earlier this month, the company launched its next-generation ‘Iron’ humanoid robot, sending the stock soaring. The company highlighted that IRON is on track for mass production, expecting large-scale humanoid manufacturing by 2026.
Analysts believe much of the market’s attention to be centred around the firm’s business plan and its product launches, including the robot and robotaxi.
Seeking Alpha analyst Ricardo Fernandez expects the firm’s volumes to increase 150% driven by the Sedan segment. Gross margins are expected to be flat, around 17.5%, and EBITDA losses should shrink to around -2%, with the potential to reach breakeven, the analyst said.
Fernandez additionally noted that unit volumes are likely to grow 124% in 2025 to 426k units, according to a consensus of 30 analysts’ estimates. This should allow XPeng to break even on cash costs/EBITDA.
He believes that, from this point forward, rising sales volumes should lift XPeng’s profitability, with consensus estimates projecting EBITDA margins to reach about 12% by 2030 or roughly $3.3k per vehicle.
“From 2026 onward, XPeng should see a consistent increase in margins from 0% in 2025 to 5% in 2027, as added volumes or every unit sold above the 450k level adds margin. This operating scenario should produce significant cash earnings (net income, depreciation, and stock-based compensation) growth of over 45% in the 2026-2028 period and GAAP Net Income to top US$1bn in 2028,” the analyst added.