Rocket Lab (RKLB) has traded lower ever since it announced with its third-quarter earnings report the delay of the debut launch of its medium-lift Neutron rocket from late 2025 to 2026. The Neutron program is the development of a new, partially reusable, medium-lift launch vehicle designed to carry heavier payloads than their current Electron rocket. Its purpose is to serve commercial mega-constellations, national security missions, and interplanetary missions, and eventually human spaceflight.
CEO Peter Beck said the decision to delay Neutron was based on setting priorities toward ensuring quality and reliability in the rocket’s development and testing phase rather than adhering to the previously set launch timeline. The company highlighted that the necessary hardware for Neutron has already been built and is undergoing final testing, but additional time is required to retire program risks and complete qualification work.
BTIG analyst Andre Madid highlighted that Rocket Lab (RKLB) would have seen positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 were it not for the Neutron launch delay. He noted that the broader business continues to be driven by improvements in Electron cadence and space systems margins. Total Neutron development costs are now expected to be ~$360 million across R&D and capex at the end of this year.
As for the Neutron timeline, BTIG expects that the first test launch may not happen until the second quarter of 2026, followed by a paid launch later in the year.
Madrid said that despite Rocket Lab’s (RKLB) recent operational momentum, the firm remains on the sidelines at current valuation levels until there is greater visibility to Neutron’s success.
Shares of Rocket Lab (RKLB) fell 5.2% in afternoon trading on Monday and are down almost 20% over the last week. Short interest on RKLB stands at 9.5% of the total float.