Goldman Sachs has identified a new group of “AI productivity beneficiaries,” highlighting companies best positioned to see earnings lift from automation-driven efficiency gains.
Strategist David Kostin said the screen focuses on Russell 1000 (IWB) (VONE) constituents that rank in the top quartile for both share of wage bill exposed to AI automation and labor costs as a share of sales. Goldman then narrowed the list to companies that discussed AI in the context of productivity on their Q2 or Q3 earnings calls, excluding names already in its Phase 2 or Phase 3 AI baskets.
Unlike Goldman’s sector-neutral Phase 4 basket, which tilts toward low-margin firms with the highest theoretical EPS upside from AI, the new productivity screen is not sector-neutral and carries a margin profile closer to that of the overall Russell 1000.
Performance has been solid but not spectacular: the screen’s constituents have gained 17% since December 2023, trailing the equal-weight S&P 500’s 23% advance. However, forward earnings expectations have surged, with consensus EPS estimates up 24% over two years—9 percentage points higher than revisions for the equal-weight benchmark.
