This past week, Amazon’s (AMZN) Zoox and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) (GOOG) Waymo both announced plans to expand their respective robotaxi services into new regions, with Waymo now aiming to operate its autonomous vehicles in up to 15 major cities next year in the U.S. and U.K.
Zoox has also been picking up speed, with the company now offering driverless robotaxi rides in Las Vegas and San Francisco. Zoox is also operating test fleets in Austin, Seattle, Miami, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Washington, D.C.
Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA), which had been viewed as a robotaxi frontrunner, has been operating in Austin and San Francisco with safety drivers in its vehicles. It also recently received a ride-hailing permit in Arizona.
We asked Seeking Alpha analysts Cash Flow Venue and Bernard Zambonin if they thought Tesla was losing the robotaxi race to commercialization in the U.S.
Cash Flow Venue: Although I’m quite bearish on Tesla (TSLA), I wouldn’t say it’s “losing,” but it certainly is quite behind in the “race” to full commercial robotaxi scale. Despite many bold statements from CEO Elon Musk (e.g., millions of Tesla’s robotaxis through 2026), there are no signs suggesting Tesla (TSLA) could deliver on that.
I have to give it to them—they have the manufacturing strength, massive installed base, and vision‑only autonomy strategy, which could pay off. Still, I can’t ignore the fact that Tesla trails Waymo (GOOG) (GOOGL) in demonstrated driverless operations and verified safety/performance metrics. Unless Tesla ramps up fast and avoids regulatory/safety setbacks, it risks being reactive rather than dominant in this space.
Bernard Zambonin: Tesla (TSLA) is losing an endurance race that’s still in its first stint. It just started from the back of the pack and needs to climb up to gain positions. I think Tesla’s chances of becoming an emerging winner in the robotaxi race are due to the combination of already having a massive existing vehicle fleet and also having a data-rich approach, with millions of customer cars already on the road equipped with cameras, onboard compute, and continuous software logging. Over the long run, this gives Tesla (TSLA) the potential for a structural advantage in terms of technological and regulatory alignment.