Wall Street’s macro traders are on pace for their best year since 2009 as their clients stepped up trading to adjust to shifting interest policies implemented by many of the worlds’ central banks, according to a media report on Tuesday.
Banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), and Citigroup (C) are expected to log $165B in revenue from trading in credit, fixed-income, and commodities this year, up 10% from last year, Bloomberg News reported, citing data from Crisil Coalition Greenwich.
But it’s not just central banks’ interest rates that motivated their clients to trade. Uncertainty over tariffs, a steepening yield curve, and swelling fiscal deficits also sparked trading, boosting the fee pool for rates traders, especially. Group-of-10 businesses are expected to generate $40B in revenue, a five-year high, according to the report.
Much of the momentum is expected to persist in 2026, with the industry’s revenue projected to be $162B, only 2% less than 2025’s.
“Most of these conditions are here to stay. There is no reason why the type of activity levels we’ve seen can’t be repeated in 2026,” Nikhil Choraria, head of European interest rate products trading at Goldman Sachs (GS), told Bloomberg in an interview.
Emerging-market macro traders are expected to pull in $35B, their biggest total in at least 20 years. Credit traders are seen bringing in $27B, and commodities, $11B, the article said.
Some traders, though, may be disappointed by their bonuses, Michael Karp, CEO of recruitment firm Options Group, told Bloomberg. The FICC compensation pool is likely to rise ~3% on average, the firm said in a report, with a 7% increase for rates, 5% for emerging markets, and 4% for foreign exchange.
Relevant tickers: Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Deutsche Bank (DB), HSBC (HSBC), UBS Group (UBS), Barclays (BCS).