French biotech (ABVX) has emerged as the most likely acquisition target among biotechs in 2026, significantly outpacing others, while liver drug developer Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) has become the least likely candidate, according to a survey conducted by Truist Securities.
The company has received 22 investor mentions (44% of surveyed investors) in its proprietary survey commissioned to gauge market sentiment, Truist analysts led by Gregory Renza wrote in a research note last week.
Shares of the Paris-based biotech have skyrocketed this year, with multiple reports indicating that Eli Lilly (LLY) is pursuing an M&A deal with the company whose lead asset, obefazimod, is targeted at inflammatory conditions such as ulcerative colitis.
The brokerage retained its Buy rating and $140 per share target on Abivax (ABVX), arguing that with a YTD rally of 1,600% and a positive late-stage readout for obefazimod in July, “the stock has maintained high investor interest into 2026.”
Meanwhile, Revolution Medicines (RVMD) has gotten the attention of only 8% of surveyed investors, falling far short of Abivax (ABVX), while CG Oncology (CGON) and Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) scored 6% each.
Among the least likely buyout targets, Madrigal (MDGL), which markets MASH therapy Rezdiffra, has topped the list with 14 mentions, followed by Janux Therapeutics (JANX), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), and Arcus Biosciences (RCUS), indicating investor uncertainty about their M&A prospects.
“The data show a clear concentration of acquisition expectations around ABVX, signaling strong market speculation or perceived strategic fit,” Truist wrote.