Top U.S. grid operator PJM Interconnection said Wednesday it slightly reduced its peak demand forecast for summer 2027 to ~160 GW from a previous outlook of 164 GW, a downward revision that follows warnings from PJM executives that forecasts for demand growth have bloated to levels that are irrational.
PJM cut its demand forecast because some of the projects incorporated in its previous outlook, which include data centers, do not yet have firm electric service or construction commitments.
The grid operator still expects 17% electricity growth by 2030 from this year’s projected high, driven largely by data centers, and peak demand in summer 2028 is seen surpassing the record of ~165 GW set in the summer of 2006.
PJM’s projections are used to set payouts to generators and other power suppliers, and to determine how quickly to expand the grid’s network; the most immediate impact of the revised forecast will be on the operator’s capacity auctions, which are used to secure supplies.
Shares of the largest independent power producers, which have profited from demand increases in the PJM grid, fell modestly on Wednesday: Vistra (VST) closed -1.4%, Constellation Energy (CEG) -0.9%, NRG Energy (NRG) -0.5%.
ETF: (XLU)