Earnings Call Insights: NextEra Energy (NEE) Q4 2025
Management View
- John Ketchum, President, CEO & Chairman, announced “NextEra Energy had strong operational and financial performance in 2025, delivering full year adjusted earnings per share of $3.71, up over 8% from 2024 and slightly better than what we communicated at the top end of our range at our investor conference in December.” Ketchum outlined an expectation to “grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8% plus through 2032 and we are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035, all off the 2025 base.” He emphasized the company’s focus on execution in 2026, particularly capitalizing on America’s growing need for grid electrons and NextEra’s role as a proven energy infrastructure builder.
- Ketchum highlighted the new four-year Florida Power & Light (FPL) rate agreement, which allows significant infrastructure investment while keeping customer bills lower than the national average. He stated, “FPL expects to invest between $90 billion and $100 billion through 2032, primarily to support Florida’s growth.”
- The CEO also noted the company’s expanding pipeline: “FPL’s speed-to-market advantages, combined with its best-in-class service is creating significant large load interest to the tune of over 20 gigawatts to date. Of that, we are in advanced discussions on about 9 gigawatts.”
- Ketchum detailed the Energy Resources business, referencing a record origination of 13.5 gigawatts to the backlog, and described the 30-gigawatt backlog as providing “terrific visibility into Energy Resources’ ability to deliver attractive growth in the years ahead.”
- Michael Dunne, CFO, stated “For the full year 2025, FPL’s earnings per share increased $0.21 versus 2024. The principal driver of FPL’s 2025 full year performance was regulatory capital employed growth of approximately 8.1%.” Dunne added, “Energy Resources had another record year, originating new long-term contracted generation and storage projects. We added approximately 13.5 gigawatts to our backlog, which includes a record quarter of origination of 3.6 gigawatts since our last call.”
Outlook
- Management reaffirmed “2026 adjusted earnings per share expectation ranges of $3.92 to $4.02 per share remain unchanged. And as we said in December, we are targeting the high end of that range.” Ketchum reiterated, “We expect to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8% plus through 2032 and are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035, all off the 2025 base of $3.71 of adjusted earnings per share.”
- The company “continue[s] to expect to grow our dividends per share at roughly 10% per year through 2026, off a 2024 base and 6% per year from year-end 2026 through 2028.”
Financial Results
- NextEra Energy reported “full year adjusted earnings per share of $3.71, up over 8% from 2024.”
- FPL’s return on equity for regulatory purposes is “expected to be approximately 11.7% for the 12 months ending December 31, 2025.”
- FPL’s capital expenditures were “approximately $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter, bringing its full year capital investments to a total of roughly $8.9 billion.”
- For the full year, Energy Resources delivered “adjusted earnings growth of approximately 13% year-over-year.”
Q&A
- Steven Fleishman, Wolfe Research: Asked about the impact of Google’s acquisition of Intersect on NextEra’s partnership with Google and prospective competitive risks. John Ketchum responded, “it has no impact on our partnership. Google called us in advance of the announcement and said as much to us… We have 20 data center hubs on the — that we’re developing currently, trying to expand that to 40. Small developers just don’t have that.”
- Fleishman also raised concerns about rate impacts from data centers. Scott Bores, President, responded, “there are 2 pieces of legislation out there… The Senate is the one that’s advanced… is the more constructive legislation. What that is really pushing for is, I’ll say, a lot of what our tariff already does, providing protection to the general body of customers.”
- Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies: Sought clarity on the cadence of announcements for data center hub targets and resource mix. Ketchum stated, “they’re not heroic, right? I mean they’re basically — as long as we can do through 2032, what we’ve done over the last 10 or 20 years, we’re going to be in great shape.” Armando Pimentel, CEO of FPL, added, “my expectations is that in 2026 that there will be announcements regarding large load in our service territory.”
- Shahriar Pourreza, Wells Fargo: Asked about nuclear recontracting in Wisconsin and participation in PJM’s backstop auction. Ketchum indicated significant interest in Point Beach and emphasized the necessity of regulatory certainty for new investments in PJM.
- Nicholas Campanella, Barclays: Inquired about FPL large load customer gating issues and gas turbine supply chain. Pimentel explained customers are awaiting legislative outcomes but expects announcements in 2026. Ketchum said, “I don’t worry too much about it in terms of gas turbine availability.”
- Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan: Queried about wind additions and SMR partnerships. Management sees continued wind interest but expects solar and storage to dominate. On SMRs, Ketchum said, “We’re always careful about locking ourselves in with just one — with one counterparty.”
- Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs: Asked about the PJM transmission project and gas infrastructure EBITDA outlook. Management expressed high confidence in project approval and noted a minor year-over-year reduction in gas infrastructure EBITDA due to asset divestitures, with an expectation for pipelines to remain part of growth trajectory.
Sentiment Analysis
- Analysts focused on competitive risks, regulatory headwinds, and execution on data center hubs and large load opportunities. Their tone was mostly neutral with a slight positive bent, as questions probed for confirmation of growth prospects and risk mitigations.
- Management’s tone remained confident throughout both prepared remarks and Q&A. Phrases such as “we feel very good about where things stand” and “I couldn’t be less concerned” highlighted a strong sense of assurance. During Q&A, management continued to project confidence, occasionally emphasizing their unique position and readiness for execution.
- Compared to the previous quarter, management’s confidence appeared even more pronounced, especially in light of the new rate agreement and the expanded data center hub strategy. Analysts’ tone remained steady, with questions reflecting ongoing interest in large load, nuclear, and transmission opportunities.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- The current quarter featured the finalization and approval of the FPL rate agreement, with explicit capital investment targets through 2032, whereas the previous quarter focused on the proposed agreement and pending regulatory approval.
- The data center hub strategy was expanded, with management now targeting growth to 40 hubs by year-end, compared to the 20 discussed previously.
- Large load and hyperscaler demand, as well as execution of the Bring Your Own Generation (BYOG) model, were given increased strategic emphasis.
- Management tone shifted from preparatory in the previous quarter to execution-focused and highly confident in the current quarter.
- Key metrics such as adjusted earnings per share, capital expenditures, and backlog growth were all reported as increased versus prior periods.
- Analyst focus in both quarters remained on project execution, competitive risks, and regulatory hurdles, with a continued interest in nuclear and gas-fired generation developments.
Risks and Concerns
- Legislative uncertainties in Florida regarding data center water usage and permitting could delay large load customer agreements, but management expressed confidence in constructive outcomes.
- Regulatory certainty is required for new investments in markets like PJM, with management stating they will allocate capital only with clear long-term visibility.
- Supply chain for gas turbines is being actively managed, with management indicating low concern due to established partnerships.
- There is some pushback on transmission projects in Pennsylvania, but management maintains high confidence in project approval.
Final Takeaway
NextEra Energy’s leadership reiterated their focus on executing a robust growth plan, targeting a compound annual growth rate of 8% plus for adjusted earnings per share through 2032, underpinned by large load opportunities, record origination of new projects, and a finalized rate framework in Florida. The company is positioned to capitalize on significant demand from hyperscalers and data center hubs, supported by a strong balance sheet, a national footprint, and a deep pipeline of projects. Management continues to highlight execution as a priority for 2026, with confidence in their strategies for growth, risk management, and capital allocation.