Beef prices in the U.S. have climbed sharply as cattle inventories sit at their lowest levels in decades. Factors such as drought, high feed and input costs, and slow herd rebuilding have constrained supply even as consumer demand for steaks and burgers remains resilient. Government and industry forecasts suggest elevated beef costs will persist in 2026 for consumers and restaurant operators alike.
Evercore ISI highlighted that steak and hamburger costs are likely to stay high, with CattleFax now projecting hamburger prices to be up about 15% in the first half of 2026 and steak prices up 5% to 15% depending on the cut. Earlier hopes for outright beef deflation in late 2026 and a more pronounced correction in 2027 have faded, with forecasts now calling for roughly flat beef costs in the back half of 2026 and flat to slightly down in 2027.
Analyst David Palmer sees reasons for beef inflation to finally end by late 2026 as cattle processing hits a cyclical trough and Mexican cattle imports resume in the first half of the year.
In terms of the impact on stocks, Palmer and his team pointed to a near-term profit risk for Texas Roadhouse (TXRH). Evercore forecasts nearly 150 basis points of food cost deleverage in 2026, as about 50% of its commodity basket is beef, and key steak cuts such as sirloin, ribeye, and filet are expected to see mid- to high-single- to double-digit inflation. The chain does not have the ability to pass on all of its commodity costs to consumers.
A broad list of other companies impacted by beef prices includes JBS N.V. (JBS), Kroger (KR), Albertsons (ACI), Walmart (WMT), Tyson Foods (TSN), Hormel (HRL), Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Performance Food Group Company (PFGC), Shake Shack (SHAK), and Yum! Brands (YUM), McDonald’s (MCD), Wendy’s (WEN), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), and Beyond Meat (BYND).