U.S. oil giants Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are set to release their fourth‑quarter earnings on Friday, January 30, before the market opens, kicking off Big Oil’s earnings season as investors weigh Wall Street’s emphasis on spending discipline against President Donald Trump’s push for up to $100 billion billion in investment in Venezuela’s oil sector.
While Exxon CEO Darren Woods has said Venezuela remains “uninvestable” without major legal and regulatory reforms, he noted that Exxon (XOM) could send a technical team in coming weeks to assess assets and potentially help bring Venezuelan crude to market through its refining and trading operations.
Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX) plans to ramp up U.S.-bound Venezuelan crude exports to about 300,000 bpd in March, up from 100,000 bpd in December and roughly 230,000 bpd so far this month, according to Reuters.
Analysts expect Exxon to report EPS of $1.69 (+1.2% Y/Y) and the consensus revenue estimate is $81.67B (-2.1% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, XOM has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time.
Analysts expect Chevron to report earnings of $1.44 per share, down 30.1% year-over-year, on revenue of $46.66 billion, a 10.7% decline from the same period last year. The company has seen 5 upward EPS revisions versus 12 downward revisions in the past 3 months. Revenue estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 3 downward.
According to SA analyst Mauro Caversazzi, CVX’s Venezuelan exposure offers long-term potential but brings significant short-term capital requirements and political uncertainty. “Even if Chevron meets consensus expectations, the results will show a worse performance in 2025 than in 2024.”
According to another analyst, both XOM and CVX are rated ‘buy,’ but XOM’s higher projected returns and capital allocation discipline justify a stronger preference.
“CVX’s Hess acquisition adds growth and synergies, but annualized upside is only 8.2% versus XOM’s 17.6%.”
Envision Research, meanwhile, noted that Exxon Mobil remains a solid investment idea amid Venezuela-related oil market uncertainties and some valuation risks.