The outcome of Super Bowl LX appears to have been favorable to online sportsbook operators. The relatively low-scoring game and lack of high-volume parlays and prop bets hitting both worked in favor of the House. While most states have not yet released gaming revenue reports that include the Super Bowl, the Nevada Gaming Control Board reported the lowest Super Bowl handle since 2016. On the positive side, the hold rate in Nevada of 7.4% was the second best of the last five years. However, analysts warned the Nevada results could be an outlier.
Of course, prediction markets were one of the biggest stories of the Super Bowl. Notably, Kalshi (KALSHI) weekly volumes surged the week of Super Bowl Sunday, according to Needham. Total Kalshi (KALSHI) volume last week was up 28% week-over-week to $2.8B. Kalshi (KALSHI) reached $871M in total volume on Sunday, topping its prior daily record of $543M by 60%.
Analyst Bernie McTernan noted that Kalshi (KALSHI) users are different from typical online sports betting app users. “While Kalshi users tend to bet more on ML bets vs. props or parlays, Kalshi users also favor the non-sports bets around sports. Data shows that of the top 7 Kalshi markets on the Super Bowl, 4/7 were not involved with the game. These four include First Halftime Song, Ads during the game, Halftime Performers, and Super Bowl Guests,” highlighted McTernan. Some of those bets are not available on traditional online sports betting apps and drove significant Super Bowl volume for Kalshi (KALSHI).
Interestingly, Super Bowl bettors looked at new options for the big game on Sunday. Daily fantasy sports platform PrizePicks was the number two sports app downloaded during the day, while Underdog was number four.
As for value on a moneyline bet on the Seattle Seahawks winning the game. Bank of America reported that the most profitable site to place a bet on the Seahawks was Polymarket US (POLYMARKET), where a $10 wager would pay out $14.64, followed closely by Novig with a payout of $14.53. Fanatics (FANA) markets had the lowest payout at $14.00 for that particular bet.
On the investing scorecard, both DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) are down more than 20% year-to-date amid the flight-to-quality positioning by investors.