While large technology firms poor billions into AI infrastructure, small businesses (“SMBs”) are moving in the opposite direction, pulling back on spending plans amid elevated borrowing costs and less visability, according to a survey released on Tuesday.
The National Federation of Independent Business said its January survey showed the net share of firms planning capital outlays over the next six months fell to 18% in January, down one percentage point from December and marking the lowest level since April 2025.
The reading stands in sharp contrast to the ongoing AI-driven spending surge among mega-cap tech firms. Last week, e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) shocked Wall Street with a $200B capex forecast for 2026. Google parent Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) sees up to $185B of capex this year, a sharp jump versus 2025.
Overall, “while GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.”
The NFIB Small Business optimism Index stood at 99.3 in January, down 0.2 points from the earlier month and remaining above its 52-year average of 98.